Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Not What I Expected!

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My post of December 27, 2006 contained a long-range forecast for January 27-30, 2007. The forecast called for the following:

This January, roughly from the 27th through the 30th, shows that the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006 will be activated. The implications are that a powerful storm, perhaps a blizzard, will develop over the Plains and push eastward across the Mississippi Valley and toward the East Coast.

The main weather maker over the area at this time was not a powerful storm as I expected but a blast of very cold arctic air that entered through the Midwest and pushed eastward as seen on the Accuweather map above. For the Northeast this meant some of the coldest weather in two years. The cold front had a far-reaching effect in the Midwest ushering in significantly colder air as far south as North Texas. The northern branch of the jet stream responsible for the arctic outbreak even plunged deep into the southern half of the U.S., which led to Freeze Watches and Warnings in Florida.

Saturday, January 20, 2007

January 15-17, 2007 Forecast Results

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Read about a possible January Blizzard

My December 15, 2006 post contained a long-range forecast for January 15-17, 2007. The forecast pinpointed the West Coast States for intense cold fronts, precipitation, and high wind velocities.

Here's a recap of what happened.

Intense cold fronts...

Jan 16- Accuweather
...the cold has been a catastrophe for California's citrus industry. Widespread subfreezing temperatures may have damaged up to three-quarters of the state's billion-dollar citrus crop. A.G. Kawamura, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture, tells Associated Press, "This is one of those freezes that, unfortunately, we'll all remember."

In days prior, arctic air sitting over Montana and western Canada produced temperatures well below zero. At the time, the cold had no reason to come south. Then the jet stream shifted. When that happened, nothing held back the cold, and arctic air had full access to the lower half of California and southern Nevada. That combined with crystal clear nights allowed the temperature to plummet, resulting in a widespread killer freeze. The total extent of the damage is not known, but it is estimated that 75 percent of the citrus crop is in ruin.


Jan 15th- Accuweather

A quick-moving storm will move into the Northwest from tonight into Tuesday (16th). Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, will push onto the Washington coastline late tonight. However, the rain will turn to snow as it runs into the colder air in place to the east. The cities along the I-5 Corridor are forecast to receive some snow from this storm.

Jan 18th-

Blizzard closes I-5 north of Los Angeles

A fast-moving cold storm dropped snow in the mountains above Malibu, left white coats of hail in the city and unleashed a blizzard Wednesday that closed Interstate 5 north of Los Angeles.

High velocity winds...

Jan 15th- Accuweather

Gusty winds will blow through the mountain passes and canyons of Southern California today and into the first part of Tuesday. With an area of high pressure strengthening over the Rockies, the resultant offshore flow will cause winds to gust to 60 mph in the usual windy locations.