Not What I Expected!

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My post of December 27, 2006 contained a long-range forecast for January 27-30, 2007. The forecast called for the following:

This January, roughly from the 27th through the 30th, shows that the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006 will be activated. The implications are that a powerful storm, perhaps a blizzard, will develop over the Plains and push eastward across the Mississippi Valley and toward the East Coast.

The main weather maker over the area at this time was not a powerful storm as I expected but a blast of very cold arctic air that entered through the Midwest and pushed eastward as seen on the Accuweather map above. For the Northeast this meant some of the coldest weather in two years. The cold front had a far-reaching effect in the Midwest ushering in significantly colder air as far south as North Texas. The northern branch of the jet stream responsible for the arctic outbreak even plunged deep into the southern half of the U.S., which led to Freeze Watches and Warnings in Florida.

January 15-17, 2007 Forecast Results

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Read about a possible January Blizzard

My December 15, 2006 post contained a long-range forecast for January 15-17, 2007. The forecast pinpointed the West Coast States for intense cold fronts, precipitation, and high wind velocities.

Here's a recap of what happened.

Intense cold fronts...

Jan 16- Accuweather
...the cold has been a catastrophe for California's citrus industry. Widespread subfreezing temperatures may have damaged up to three-quarters of the state's billion-dollar citrus crop. A.G. Kawamura, secretary of the California Department of Food and Agriculture, tells Associated Press, "This is one of those freezes that, unfortunately, we'll all remember."


In days prior, arctic air sitting over Montana and western Canada produced temperatures well below zero. At the time, the cold had no reason to come south. Then the jet stream shifted. When that happened, nothing held back the cold, and arctic air had full access to the lower half of California and southern Nevada. That combined with crystal clear nights allowed the temperature to plummet, resulting in a widespread killer freeze. The total extent of the damage is not known, but it is estimated that 75 percent of the citrus crop is in ruin.

Precipitation...


Jan 15th- Accuweather

A quick-moving storm will move into the Northwest from tonight into Tuesday (16th). Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, will push onto the Washington coastline late tonight. However, the rain will turn to snow as it runs into the colder air in place to the east. The cities along the I-5 Corridor are forecast to receive some snow from this storm.



Jan 18th-

Blizzard closes I-5 north of Los Angeles

A fast-moving cold storm dropped snow in the mountains above Malibu, left white coats of hail in the city and unleashed a blizzard Wednesday that closed Interstate 5 north of Los Angeles.













High velocity winds...



Jan 15th- Accuweather

Gusty winds will blow through the mountain passes and canyons of Southern California today and into the first part of Tuesday. With an area of high pressure strengthening over the Rockies, the resultant offshore flow will cause winds to gust to 60 mph in the usual windy locations.

January Blizzard?

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How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


January 12, 2007 will mark the 119th anniversary of the Children’s Blizzard. (see photo above) Also known as the Schoolhouse Blizzard or the Schoolchildren’s Blizzard, this powerful storm hit the U.S. Plains unexpectedly on January 12, 1888. Only those who lived close to telegraph offices or railroad stations received news of the approaching storm from the U.S. Signal Corps. Many people, however, were caught unaware. Children were trapped in one-room schoolhouses or met their fate trying to find their way back home. Farmers were caught without protection taking care of their livestock as were family members doing errands in town. It is estimated that 235 people died that day on the Dakota-Nebraska prairie—more than a hundred of them children.

The storm roared out of the northwest on a day mild enough for children to walk to school in their shirt-sleeves or without hats and jackets. Within just a few hours, temperatures dropped from around 70 degrees Fahrenheit to minus twenty or more accompanied by horizontal snow and hurricane-force winds.

The lives of surviving children, parents, farmers, and teachers were drastically altered. The new science of post-traumatic growth, to our surprise, finds that enduring such harrowing ordeals ultimately changes many people for the better. They are transformed by tribulation; giving credence to the old saying “What doesn’t kill you can actually make you stronger.”

Rich Tedeschi, a professor of psychology at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte, when talking about people that have survived traumatic experiences says, “People don’t say that what they went through was wonderful. They weren’t meaning to grow from it. They were just trying to survive. But in retrospect, what they gained was more than they anticipated.”

The astro-meteorology behind the Children’s Blizzard shows that on the 11th and 12th of January Mars conjoined Uranus as Mercury made a 90 degree angle to Mars and Uranus. Mars-Uranus contacts indicate acute, energetic, erratic action and provoke wind velocities of varying intensities. Mercury-Uranus is known to provoke falling temperatures and erratic gusts of wind. Mercury-Mars action indicates sudden brief spurts of whipping winds.

Solar and lunar eclipse charts frequently are the precursors of major weather phenomena. In the case of the Children’s Blizzard, the previous lunar eclipse boasted a Jupiter-Neptune opposition which correlates to low barometric pressure and above normal precipitation.

This January, roughly from the 27th through the 30th, shows that the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006 will be activated. The implications are that a powerful storm, perhaps a blizzard, will develop over the Plains and push eastward across the Mississippi Valley and toward the East Coast. I’m in no wise thinking that this storm will be anything like the Children’s Blizzard of 1888. The similarity resides in the fact that, in both cases, eclipse charts are involved. The planetary energies involved, however, are different. This January we will be dealing with a Mercury-Saturn opposition, a sure harbinger of a strong low pressure system.

Satellite view of the Blizzard of 1993

December 21, 2006 Forecast Results

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Some History of Astro-Meteorology

Included in my December 15th post was the following forecast:

If we zero in on the blue line running approximately over 113 west longitude through the Great Basin area , we should be able to time a couple of weather patterns that will develop there this winter. The blue line represents the planet Uranus. On the very day of the winter solstice, Mars will form a 90 degree angle to Uranus. The atmosphere should respond with an energetic winter storm over this area. Wind is usually a salient feature with this planetary combination. We usually give a day or so on either side of the exact date.

Looking a day or so before the 21st, we find the following Accuweather report on the 19th:

Potent Winter Storm Taking Shape (State College, PA) - A powerful storm will slowly emerge out of the Desert Southwest through Wednesday (20th), with heavy blowing snow over the eastern Rockies today and treacherous ice coating the southern Plains...The radar from Amarillo, Tex., indicates freezing rain is falling this morning as the potent storm spins over Arizona.

Dec 20th- Accuweather

Before emerging out of the Rockies, the storm on Tuesday (19th) brought a variety of precipitation to the Four Corners region and southern Plains. Snow fell in Las Vegas, Nev., and schools were closed in Albuquerque, NM.

Dec 20th- The Weather Channel

In the Pacific Northwest, another storm system is coming ashore today bring valley rain/mountain snow and wind to the Cascades today through Thursday (21st).

This second system will dive southeastward over the next several days bringing more wide spread wind/mountain snow/valley rain in the Northwest on Thursday, the Intermountain West by Friday, and to the Four Corners and southern Rockies by Saturday.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Wind advisories are in effect over the forecast area. Below are a few examples.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV

320 PM PST THU DEC 21 2006

...SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

____________________________________________________________________

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT

844 PM MST THU DEC 21 2006

FRIDAY EVENING WILL BRING A WINDY PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST UTAH…

___________________________________________________________________

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

351 PM PST THU DEC 21 2006

...HIGH WIND WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

Signs of the Sky--How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

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Some History of Astro-Meteorology

For those of you who are visiting The Weather Alternative after reading Accuweather meteorologist Katrina Voss's blog on Signs of the Sky, I thought I'd explain a bit more of the methodology used by ancient and present-day astro-meteorologists in formulating long-range weather forecasts based on planetary positions.

The basic premise of this branch of mundane astrology, which early researchers formulated by observation, is that the planets affect the meteorological process with each planet in particular governing a different aspect of the weather spectrum.

For example, Mercury was observed to be instrumental in governing wind direction and velocity. Venus, on the other hand, corresponded to a warm, moist influence tending to lower the barometer. Each of the other planets was also believed to correspond to different weather phenomena.

When two or more planets form certain geometrical patterns as seen from earth, astro-meteorologists observe that the atmosphere responds with a weather system that blends the nature of planets involved. These geometrical patterns are measured as angles that two or more planets make with earth as the center. Key angles are 0 degrees, 60 degrees, 90 degrees, 120 degrees, and 180 degrees.

The equinoxes and solstices provide key information in this respect since planetary positions at these moments show the geographic locales where high and low pressure systems originate or their effects are most potent.

The map of the United States above shows the planetary positions at the moment of the upcoming winter solstice on December 21, 2006. The lines on the map correspond to the positions of some of the planets at that moment. The curved black lines show where certain planets will be setting at the time of the winter solstice. The straight blue lines show were certain planets will be overhead, and the straight yellow lines show where other planets will be exactly underneath the earth.

If we zero in on the blue line running approximately over 113 west longitude through the Great Basin area , we should be able to time a couple of weather patterns that will develop there this winter. The blue line represents the planet Uranus. On the very day of the winter solstice, Mars will form a 90 degree angle to Uranus. The atmosphere should respond with an energetic winter storm over this area. Wind is usually a salient feature with this planetary combination. We usually give a day or so on either side of the exact date.

January 15-17, 2007 looks like another key time for this area of the country as Jupiter will form a 90 degree aspect to Uranus on the 16th. These two are conducive to intense cold fronts, precipitation, and high wind velocities. So we may expect a strong weather system to be drawn into the area at this time.

Having worked with this system for a number of years, I never cease to be amazed at the beauty and the “down-to-earth” practicality that its designer bestowed upon the heavenly bodies. The members of our solar system no longer appear to be unrelated and meaningless masses of rock and gas circling the sun as science sometimes leaves us
feeling. But God has given purpose to the planets and equipped his offspring with a built-in, environmentally safe, long-range weather forecasting tool for our service.

Long-range weather forecasting is more than just observing planetary positions and their effects on our atmosphere. In the words of Johannes Kepler, a man of science, astrology, and astro-meteorology, it’s “thinking God’s thoughts after him.”

December 9-11, 2006 Forecast Results

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On November 30th, I posted the following forecast:

The next alignment between Mercury and Mars takes place on December 9, 2006. The atmosphere should once again respond with gusty winds and storms roughly from the 9th to the 11th. This time a few areas of the country should feel this influence. Windy conditions should push ashore over the West Coast and advance toward the Rockies. The Plains area should respond with gusty winds as should the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Here's a recap of what happened. (Bold is mine)

West Coast

Dec 8, 2006- The Weather Channel

A third and much more potent Pacific system will be heading into the West Sunday (10th). Western Oregon and northwest California will experience strong gusty winds ahead of this third system.

Rockies

Dec 11, 2006- National Weather Service

PUEBLO CO 1011 AM MST MON DEC 11 2006

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO35 MPH...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

GREAT FALLS MT1201 PM MST MON DEC 11 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE CUT BANKAREA...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPOVER THE ROCKIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...

Plains

Dec 8, 2006- The Weather Channel

Midwest
The Midwest will enjoy a dry and much milder weekend with increasingly gusty southwest to west winds from Kansas to the Great Lakes.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Dec 8, 2006- The Weather Channel

As the lake snow and gusty winds end in the Northeast, cold will continue to grip the East overnight.

Windy Weather Coming!

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Our sun and its celestial entourage constitute an amazing piece of machinery whose order and unfailing precision certainly make one think of intelligent design over random stellar evolution.

As far back as Genesis chapter 1, the sun, moon, and stars were given the role of a celestial timepiece to be for signs, seasons, days, and years. In other words, they have a practical function other than inspiring awe in humankind. The practical purpose of the sun and moon are well known. God obviously intended the sun to provide us with the heat, light, and food necessary to sustain life on earth in addition to providing those beautiful sunsets. Beside inspiring lovers to stroll beneath its silvery beams, the moon, of course, controls the ocean’s tides as well as regulating the rhythms of certain life forms.

Now it would stand to reason that the other heavenly bodies of our solar system have some practical function as well. Many brilliant minds throughout history have equated terrestrial weather patterns with celestial phenomena. Johannes Kepler, the 17th century astronomer and discoverer of the planetary laws of motion, first achieved fame due to his long-range weather forecasts based on planetary positions. Since planetary phenomena can be calculated years in advance, their effect on weather patterns can be known long before conventional meteorological forecasts can detect them if we follow Kepler’s method.

For centuries the planet Mercury has been equated with wind direction and velocity. When aligned with Mars, storms and whipping winds ensue. One of the last alignments between Mercury and Mars occurred on September 15, 2006. Based on this configuration, I prepared a forecast in December 2005 that was published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope calling for windy and stormy conditions over the Mississippi Valley. The result was strong gusty winds over the area. (Click here to see forecast results)

The next alignment between Mercury and Mars takes place on December 9, 2006. The atmosphere should once again respond with gusty winds and storms roughly from the 9th to the 11th. This time a few areas of the country should feel this influence. Windy conditions should push ashore over the West Coast and advance toward the Rockies. The Plains area should respond with gusty winds as should the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

It never ceases to amaze me how the Creator included in his handiwork a built-in and environmentally safe weather forecast system for our benefit. Good thinking!

Severe Weather for the Plains

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In fulfillment of my long-range weather forecast that appeared in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope (see forecast), the Plains are rockin' and reelin' as a powerful cold front slides eastward through Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, Illinois, and Missouri.

The forecast called for severe weather over Missouri and Iowa. Today the Weather Channel confirms this, "Cloudbursts and thunderstorms, some severe (at least in Illinois and Missouri), will accompany the front."

The forecast also called for more weather woes for the West Coast. Accuweather reported the following yesterday:

Arctic Blast Follows the Snow and Rain
Arctic air that had been bottled up across Alaska and Canada's Yukon Territory pressed into Washington and Oregon Sunday and will continue to grip the Northwest through Wednesday before following the storm system to the east.

November 28-30, 2006

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Here's a forecast of mine that was published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope:

Nov. 28-30, 2006:

This period boasts a double whammy as Mercury squares Neptune, and Mars squares Saturn. Atmospheric disturbances will develop over the Plains as warm, moist air collides with its cold, dry counterpart. An outbreak of deadly weather is indicated over Missouri and Iowa. More weather woes are also in store for the West Coast States. Additional tropical moisture is pumped into the area and should ignite storms producing flash floods.

Drenching Rains in India

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Drenching rains along India's east coast confirm The Weather Alternative's long-range forecast for October 22-25. This forecast was prepared in January 2006 and published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope. The forecast was a follows:

Oct. 22-25:
The potential for major tropical activity is also shown for the eastern coast of India.

Yesterday Accuweather reported:

International Weather News Center World Weather Summary
Posted: 26-OCT-2006 11:24am EDT

Downpours drenched the eastern shores of southern India Wednesday to Thursday. Among observation sites, Chennai (Madras) was wettest with 5.63 inches of rain within 24 hours ending Thursday morning, local time; this is more than half of the average rainfall for all of October.

Colorado Blizzard

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The Weather Alternative Forecast for Oct 25-27 posted at the end of September is certainly shaping up.


Oct 25-27:
A vigorous low pressure system will trek across the Rockies generating strong storms.

Here's what Accuweather has to say:

Snowstorm Impact
Updated: Wednesday, October 25, 2006 3:01 PM
This will be remembered as a big storm. The heaviest snow will fall in the Colorado Rockies and along the Front Range. Snowfall totals will exceed a foot in the south-central part of the state. In Denver, AccuWeather.com expects up to 8 inches. Storm development will be explosive later Wednesday night as air masses clash. The intensifying swirl of air will cause winds to reach 40 miles or more resulting in blowing snow and blizzard conditions. The only thing missing will be extremely low temperatures, which is a trait of a true blizzard. The storm will close roads, cause airport delays and bring down power lines. The snow from this storm will not expand across the Great Plains due to a lack of cold air. There it will just rain.

Coast to Coast

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A number of forecasts were posted at the end of September for October 22-25. Here's a run down on their accuracy.

Forecasts Posted at the end of September

Oct. 22-25:

A new wave of inclement weather reaches the West Coast States. The period climaxes with the potential for tempestuous, widespread storms and heavy downfall.

The Plains should respond with an outbreak of severe weather, which may include possible tropical storm implications along the southwest coast of Texas.

The potential for major tropical activity is also shown for the eastern coast of India.

The eastern U.S. should be dealing with its own weather anomalies as temperatures skyrocket. The atmosphere may try and equalize the situation by unleashing strong storms over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. A tropical system cannot be ruled out.

Another Hurricane Hot Spot may develop off the eastern coast of Nicaragua threatening Central America, while the island of Jamaica is in for severe weather as well.


West Coast

The Weather Channel today reports " Two separate systems will hurl showers into the West tomorrow; one into the Pacific Northwest, the other into the Southwest." That looks good for my forecast above.

Plains






Accuweather is forecasting a storm for the Plains starting on Wed. Oct 24th, which would fall within dates for my forecast.







The next Accuweather graphic is interesting since my forecast calls for "possible tropical storm implications along the southwest coast of Texas."



Accuweather says "Moisture from Hurricane Paul will come up into Mexico, then turn eastward into Texas this week. This, combined with a storm taking shape across the central states, could mean another heavy rain event for southeastern Texas and Louisiana..."







India

Nothing reported as of yet.

Eastern U.S.

Yesterday Accuweather reported that "Rain is moving eastward today across the Great Lakes as a storm system over Lower Michigan this morning heads northeastward into southern Ontario. This system will spread rain eastward by this evening into western New England, upstate New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia."

Central America

No tropical trouble has been reported over Central America.

Today the National Weather Service reported "WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM GUATEMALA TO NRN COSTA RICA..."

New Western Storm and Eastern Rain

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The Weather Alternative long-range forecast for October 19-21 called for Showers and storms hit the Northeast down through Virginia, the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina with falling temperatures and a new round of storms for the West Coast.

Here's the latest from Accuweather:


By Friday (20th), the cold front will reach the East Coast as chilly air continues to spread in from the west. The front and an area of low pressure along it will bring rain from New England southward along the mid-Atlantic coast, while thunderstorms will rumble across the eastern Carolinas.





Wet weather will break out across the Northwest over the next couple of days as a storm arrives from the Pacific. A moist and mild flow into Washington and Oregon will mean snow levels in the Cascades will stay rather high; mainly above pass level.

Rockies Storm and Texas Trouble

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Forecasters are just now becoming aware of the storm potential developing over the Rockies and Plains. The Weather Alternative forecast (see below), crafted last December and January and published in the July issue of Dell Horoscope, pinpointed the developing weather systems months ago.

Oct 15-18, 2006
Abundant moisture is also drawn up over the Plains creating severe weather potential along the Front Range of the Rockies.

Accuweather reports the following:


Another system - an upper-level low, will move across Arizona today spreading plenty of moisture northeastward into New Mexico and the western half of Texas. This will lead to thunderstorms as well across this area. Given
the proximity of the upper-level low and its associated cold pool of air aloft, stronger thunderstorms in this area will have the risk for hail in them.



The Next Cold Shot
One nice thing about fall is it is a season in
transition. If you don't like the weather at one point, give it time, and it will change. That will happen the middle of this week across the northern Rockies and much of the Midwest as the next shot of cold air is released. This air mass will not be quite as cold as its predecessor, but will still be cold enough to drop temperatures back downwards significantly and also set the stage for another winter storm from Montana to the Colorado Rockies and into the Dakotas and western Nebraska, come Tuesday (17th) and Wednesday (18th).

Coming Changes for East and West Coasts

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The weather patterns contained in forecasts prepared back in December 2005 and posted here in September 2006 are beginning to become evident to conventional meteorologist. These call for good sized storms over the Mid-Atlantic region and a moisture-laden air mass over California. (See forecast below)
The wet weather in California starting today is a bit earlier than I predicted. The approaching storms over the Mid-Atlantic will arrive as forecast.

Forecast

Oct. 15-18:
The general weather pattern over California begins to change now as a warmer more moisture-laden air mass enters the region. This may result in tropical moisture being funneled into the area setting off heavy showers. Fog may also be a concern now.
The Mid-Atlantic States will have to deal with what promises to be some good-sized storms of their own.

From Accuweather:
A storm system sitting just off the Southern California coastline will slide inland today, bringing showers and thunderstorms that have been dry for much of the summer. Today, locations such as Los Angeles and San Diego will be rather cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the area. While heavy rain is unlikely, the recent forest fires have left mountainsides exposed, and it will not take too much rain before mudslides will form. This storm system will continue to track inland, bringing rain into the Desert Southwest over the weekend.

While the Eastern Seaboard is dealing with chilly temperatures this Friday the 13th, wet weather is on the horizon. After mainly dry conditions persist through the weekend, a storm system currently moving into Southern California looks to overspread the mid-Atlantic states and Southeast with rain and thunderstorms next Tuesday(17th). Before arriving over these areas, moisture interacting with the system will allow the wet weather to first pour down on the South Central states on Sunday, then over the southern Mississippi and Tennessee valleys on Monday. With the rich moisture streaming overhead, be advised that some of the rain could fall heavily each of these days.

Stormy West and Rockies

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Scroll down to see more long-range forecast results

Here's another long-range forecast issued by The Weather Alternative at the end of September that's shaping up:

Oct 8-10:
A storm system moves in over the West Coast States and pushes toward the Rockies.


The Weather Channel reports today that:

Two disturbances will bring wet weather to a large part of the West on Monday. An upper low over western Arizona will pump moisture into the Four Corners region and across the Rocky Mountains.
As a result, look for showers and thunderstorms across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado.
Flood watches are in effect for portions of Utah and Colorado as some of the rain could be locally heavy.

Farther north, another disturbance will trigger snow across the Northern Rockies. Snow advisories and winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of Montana and Wyoming, and some mountain locations could see a foot of snow.

Weather graphic courtesy of Accuweather

Coming Cold Wave

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Conventional meteorologists over the last few days have been warning us of a very powerful cold front that will push southward over the Plains and move toward the east. Here's the latest from Accuweather:
...a blast of cold air...will reach the Plains Wednesday (11th) of next week. A sharp cold front from northern Canada will bring temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal, and combined with a strong wind, a drastic change will be on the horizon. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of this cold front will pass through the Plains and into the east. Some locations will receive their first snow of the season behind this cold front as rain will change to snow across the northern Plains, northern Great Lakes, as well as the northern Rockies.
This cold blast will reach southward into the southern Plains and push eastward toward the Atlantic coastline.

This will be a direct fulfillment of The Weather Alternative's October 10-12, 2006 forecast posted at the end of September, which read:

Storms should rev up over the Plains and West Coast. After the 12th, falling temperatures and windy conditions are in store for the eastern U.S.

Coastal Storm Approaches

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The Weather Alternative forecast for October 5-7, 2006 was prepared in December 2005 and stated "Storms hit from coastal North Carolina and Virginia through the Northeast."

Today Accuweather confirms this long-range forecast.

Following summer's brief return, a coastal storm will batter the central Atlantic states as the workweek draws to a close. After causing showers and thunderstorms to rumble across the Northeast, a cold front will drop into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday (5th). Instead of making a quick passage through the region, an area of low pressure will slow down the front's southward progress. To complicate matters, a strong upper-level storm system will also dive into the region, allowing the low pressure to rapidly intensify as it moves off the North Carolina coast on Friday (6th). As the storm interacts with a strong area of high pressure to the north, the southeastern mid-Atlantic states and northeastern North Carolina will be pounded with heavy rain and high winds Friday into Friday night.

The Weather Alternative also issued some other forecasts for this same time period.

A tropical moisture is indicated over the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.

Jamaica's Meteorological Service issued the following statement today:

Thur..Tropical Wave passes over the island.

Fri..Surface to upper level trough over Bahamas and Cuba.

Sat..Surface to upper level trough over Bahamas and Cuba.

A storm system will advance into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, pushing showers and thunderstorms into those areas.

Accuweather reported today:

The West will also be wet, thanks to a slow moving upper-level low located off the coast of Northern California. As this low works closer to the coast tonight, colder air will be drawn south into California, lowering snow levels in the northern and central Sierra Mountains to 6,000 feet.

October 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

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Scroll down and check out fulfilled long-range forecast.

Oct 4-6:
A cold front over the Mississippi Valley triggers storms that push eastward.

Oct 5-7:
Storms hit from coastal North Carolina and Virginia through the Northeast.
A tropical moisture is indicated over the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.
A storm system will advance into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, pushing showers and thunderstorms into those areas.

Oct 7-9:
Cold air funnels in over the Plains and pushes eastward triggering storms that eventually reach the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

Oct 8-10:
A storm system moves in over the West Coast States and pushes toward the Rockies.


Oct. 10-12:
Storms should rev up over the Plains and West Coast. After the 12th, falling temperatures and windy conditions are in store for the eastern U.S.

Oct 11-13:
Low pressure brings rain to the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica. Storms will affect the coastal area of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Oct. 15-18:
The general weather pattern over California begins to change now as a warmer more moisture-laden air mass enters the region. This may result in tropical moisture being funneled into the area setting off heavy showers. Fog may also be a concern now.
Abundant moisture is also drawn up over the Plains creating severe weather potential along the Front Range of the Rockies.
The Mid-Atlantic States will have to deal with what promises to be some good-sized storms of their own.

Oct 19-21:
Showers and storms hit the Northeast down through Virginia, the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, as well as the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.


Oct. 19-21:
Storms continue to kick out into the Plains as contrasting air masses feed low pressure systems. The West Coast gets a new round of storms while temperatures drop over the eastern U.S.

Oct. 22-25:
A new wave of inclement weather reaches the West Coast States. The period climaxes with the potential for tempestuous, widespread storms and heavy downfall. The Plains should respond with an outbreak of severe weather, which may include possible tropical storm implications along the southwest coast of Texas.
The potential for major tropical activity is also shown for the eastern coast of India.
The eastern U.S. should be dealing with its own weather anomalies as temperatures skyrocket. The atmosphere may try and equalize the situation by unleashing strong storms over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. A tropical system cannot be ruled out.
Another Hurricane Hot Spot may develop off the eastern coast of Nicaragua threatening Central America, while the island of Jamaica is in for severe weather as well.

Oct 25-27:
A vigorous low pressure system will trek across the Rockies generating strong storms.


Oct 28-30:
A low pressure system off the California coast will hurl wind and rain into California and Oregon. Major changes should be underway for the Plains as well. A whirling dervish of a storm center over northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will most likely usher in windy conditions. Tropical moisture from the Gulf will help ignite hefty storms over the Ark Latex region.
A Hurricane Hotspot forms in the Eastern Pacific at 94 West Longitude and 10 North Latitude or about 400 miles south of Oaxaca, Mexico.

Soaking Rain for the Northeast

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The Weather Alternative's long-range forecast (prepared in December 2005) for September 26-28 is shaping up just fine. The forecast called for The potential for heavy rainfall is shown over the eastern US from the eastern Great Lakes southward to Virginia.

Here's the latest from Accuweather:

The front moving through the Great Lakes today will reach Pennsylvania and western New York by Thursday, bringing cloudy, damp weather and noticeably cooler air. The wettest weather in the coastal mid-Atlantic will come on Thursday night, and Friday looks like a washout for New England. To add insult to injury, the upper-level trough that is pushing this front along will be lifting up to the north, meaning the front will be slowing down. So, while places in the Great Lakes will just be having a quick spell of rain today, much of the Northeast will have a soaking rain for a longer period of time.