Tuesday, April 24, 2007

July 2007 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Probably the best thing about hurricanes is that they move us to help other people. Norman Rockwell captured that helpful spirit in his 1941 painting A Scout is Helpful. The painting was inspired by the 1938 New England Hurricane.
From a long-range weather perspective, the end of July shows the potential to be a very active period. Here are some dates, places, and comments about possible hurricane landfalls and severe weather outbreaks.

July 21-24, 2007

Hurricane scenario: A number of planetary indicators point toward the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane being drawn northward off the North Carolina coast (around 73W/32N) to the Long Island/Connecticut area. The tropical system would then continue through the area and affect the rest of New England and eastern Canada.

Non-tropical scenario: If not an actual tropical system, abundant tropical moisture is drawn up over the eastern U.S. targeting the Northeast and New England areas. The resulting heavy rains will have the potential to cause flooding problems.

Monsoonal moisture comes to life over the Rockies resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Some of these may be possible flash-flood producers.

Gulf moisture is thrust northward over the central U.S. creating a severe weather threat over Missouri and the surrounding states. Heat and humidity are on the increase igniting storms, which will most likely reach severe limits.

July 24-27, 2007

The East Coast is still not out of the woods yet. Another round of severe storms, or perhaps just a continuation of the severe weather indicated in the July 21-24 forecast, will affect the Southeast, East Central, and Great Lakes area. Tropical moisture, either through a tropical system or some other weather mechanism, will be drawn up over the Carolinas and Northeast. Strong storms should result with the potential of reaching severe limits.

July 28-Aug 1, 2007

A low pressure system that may be tropical in nature forms off the Carolina coasts and heads towards the Long Island/Connecticut area. The area from New York City through New England shows the potential for storms of a severe nature and high velocity winds. A tropical system cannot be ruled out at this time.

The Plains will be dealing with its own severe weather as high heat unleashes dangerous storms over Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. A similar scenario develops over Alabama, Georgia, and surrounding areas.
Click here for Hurricane Season 2007
Click here for April 2007 Forecast
Click here for Spring Out West

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The prediction for heavy rains in the northeast was spot on--torrential rain on July 23 with very chilly temps (only in the 60s today).
Gary (NJ)