Here's a look at the results of The Weather Alternative long-range forecasts for Central America. These four forecasts cover the month of August and were posted on May 16, 2010.
The first forecast was for August 2-6, 2010 and called for a severe weather pattern or possible tropical system over Honduras and Nicaragua.
The Weather Channel reported on the 2nd, "In the western Caribbean, there is a tropical wave moving ashore in Central America near Nicaragua that should produce some locally heavy rainfall over Central America in the next day or two. This system is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone."
The above weather graphic from the National Weather Service is for August 6, 2010 and shows a circled area over Honduras and Nicaragua. The NWS stated: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
The second forecast was for August 7-9 and pinpointed an area in the Central Caribbean (75W/14N) as a place where a tropical system could either form or pass through. Severe weather was also forecast for Panama. The NWS posted the following comment on August 9th.
NWS
Aug 9, 2010
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA.
NWS
Aug 9, 2010
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA.
The third forecast was for August 9-12, 2010. This forecast mentioned severe weather for Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Costa Rica with a possible tropical system of the Costa Rican coast at 85W/8N.
The NWS report for August 12th below mentions enhanced convection over Panama and Costa Rica.
Aug 12
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
12N73W. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N/10N AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S
OF 12N INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
The fourth forecast was for August 19-22 specifying heavy rain for Honduras and Nicaragua. The accompanying map is for August 21st.
The NWS commentary below talks of abundant moisture over Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras.
Aug 21
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NOTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 74W S OF 17N. SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN 100 NM OFFSHORE OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.
The NWS report for August 12th below mentions enhanced convection over Panama and Costa Rica.
Aug 12
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
12N73W. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N/10N AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S
OF 12N INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
The fourth forecast was for August 19-22 specifying heavy rain for Honduras and Nicaragua. The accompanying map is for August 21st.
The NWS commentary below talks of abundant moisture over Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras.
Aug 21
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NOTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 74W S OF 17N. SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN 100 NM OFFSHORE OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.
December 2010 Nor'easter Forecast
Tropical Storm Matthew Fulfills Long-range Forecast!
Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!
Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!
Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!
Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010
Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September
Introduction to the Weather Alternative
How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made
4PY5YGXSE929
“Choose to be a love-finder rather than a fault-finder.”—Gerald Jampolsky
“Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goals.”—Hannah More
No comments:
Post a Comment