Friday, September 03, 2010

Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

The Weather Alternative post of April 24, 2010, forecast hurricane or tropical storm activity over the Carolinas and Virginia between Sept. 2-5, 2010. Hurricane Earl lashed the coast of North Carolina today prompting mandatory evacuations from a couple of the islands of the Outer Banks. Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings were also posted for Virginia. Thus Earl fulfills the long-range forecast of about 4 and 1/2 months ago.
Sept 02

In a more recent post of August 27th entitled Hurricane Strike Zones for Sept 3rd, I mentioned that another place due for tropical activity was in and around the tip of the Baja Peninsula. I included the following map that highlighted both the Carolinas and the southern Baja.


Today, the area of low pressure that had been forming over the last couple of days became Tropical Depression 10E effectively fulfilling the August 27th forecast. Below is an Accuweather map showing it's current position.

03 TD 10E Accu

So far this hurricane season The Weather Alternative long-range forecasts have found their fulfillment in Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie, Tropical Depression 5, and now Hurricane Earl, and Tropical Depression 10E.

Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

"If we are not governed by God, then we will be ruled by tyrants." -- William Penn


Unknown said...

There is a website that you might find interesting and in some respects dovetails your work. Evelyn Browning Garriss is the daughter of Iben Browning. She is a master climatologist and uses atmospheric tidal forces to predict long term trends as well as various oceanic oscilations. She is calling for the west to have several years of cold winters

The Weather Alternative said...

Good Bob. I'll check it out.