Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Experimental Forecast Results

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

In July I posted some experimental forecasts. These were based on some research I was doing to improve forecast accuracy. I called them experimental because the techniques I was basing these forecasts on are not the regular techniques I normally use. This particular series of forecasts covered July and August.

To me, the results are not very convincing and so this particular technique doesn't look like something I'll be using.


July 21-23, 2010
A low pressure area, most likely centering in and around the Georgia-Tennessee area, or front affects the East Central and Deep South area.


The main weather event at this time was high heat.


July 26-28, 2010
High pressure and fair conditions embrace the southern Mississippi Valley area.


There was a lot of rain over the area between these dates.


July 30-August 1, 2010
An increase in temperatures and moisture over the Oklahoma-Arkansas area. Most likely will manifest as a low pressure area bringing rain.


No low pressure formed over the area.


August 11-16, 2010
A noticeable increase in temperatures is indicated over the Southwest U.S. centering over New Mexico-Arizona area.


The Weather Channel reported rising temperatures on the 12th and 14th.


August 21-23, 2010
A high pressure area is shown over the southern California region resulting in warm and fair conditions.


The area was warm and fair as predicted.

Central America Hurricane Potential Sept 18-23, 2010

Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

“No one ever drowned in sweat.”—Author Unknown

“Quality is not an act. It is a habit.” -- Aristotle

"Applaud us when we run, console us when we fall, cheer us when we recover, but for God's sake, let us pass on!" -- Edmund Burke

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