July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

These forecasts were calculated between November 16, 2005 and November 28, 2005.

July 2-4
Forecast: The tropics may begin to rumble as planetary indicators off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico suggest the possibility of tropical storm formation there.
The Arklatex region shows signs of severe weather as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is pumped into the area.

July 3-5
Forecast: Conditions will be favorable now for tropical storm or hurricane formation over the eastern Pacific around 120 West Longitude and 17 North Latitude.
Thunderstorms will roam the western U.S. into the Rockies.

July 4-6
Forecast: The extreme southern portions of Mexico in and around the states of Chiapas and Tabasco are in line for tropical activity. Severe weather potential, which may indicate tropical storm or hurricane formation also exists over the Baja California.

In the Atlantic, the area east of the Lesser Antilles around 58 West Longitude and 16 North Latitude is a vulnerable area for hurricane formation.

Windy and stormy action will center over the western Great Lakes area, and then move eastward over the Mid-Atlantic region. A low pressure area over New England will lead to storms that may reach severe limits as it pushes toward the Canadian Maritimes.

An active weather period continues throughout the West U.S. with severe weather likely over Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Idaho.

July 6-9
Forecast:
Tropical storm or hurricane formation is likely now east of the Lesser Antilles.

July 8-10
Forecast: A broad area in the Gulf of Mexico stretching from the tip of the Yucatan through the central Gulf may be the focal point for tropical showers to develop into a more organized system.

July 13-15
Forecast:
The development of a tropical system is likely in the southwestern Caribbean. Tropical moisture is indicated as well over the western portions of Cuba and the Florida Peninsula.

July 16-18
Forecast: The west central coast of Mexico near 106 West Longitude and 21 North Latitude shows the potential for severe weather which may be a tropical storm system.

July 17-19
Forecast: The east coast of Mexico also shows potential for tropical storm development. The area in question lies along 98 West and 23 North over the States of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

On the U.S. mainland, northern and western Texas may see severe storms or tornadoes. Further north, over Minnesota and Wisconsin, dangerous storms and damaging winds will be the attention-getter. This potent weather system then continues toward the east over the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.

July 27-30
Forecast: The inhabitants of the western coast of Mexico around the States of Chihuahua, Michoacan, Jalisco, and Nayarit should prepare for tropical storm development.

It seems the East Coast will be the focal point for severe weather as well. It may be a tropical system affecting the Carolinas and northward. The Upper Mississippi Valley also stands out in regards to strong winds.

July 31-August 2
Forecast: Tropical storm or hurricane development is now likely east of the Lesser Antilles.
New England is also slated for more severe weather now.

May 2006 Forecast Results 80 Percent Accuracy

May 2006 Forecast Results


Forecast

May 4-6, 2006: Fair and dry conditions with a lower range of temperatures are indicated for the area after a storm system hits around the 3rd.

Results

May 3, 2006: The Weather Channel
Precipitation will plod into western portions of the Northeast Thursday (4th) at the same time a wet weather system that has plagued New England over the past couple of days slinks away into the Atlantic.

May 5, 2006: National Weather Service
REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NEW YORK AND VERMON
TNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT.TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TOMORROW...

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UPTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEPTEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY (6th)NIGHT.

Forecast
May 6-8, 2006: The arrival of a colder air mass over the Northeast will result in precipitation.

May 6, 2006: The Weather Channel
Northeast
Low pressure aloft over eastern Canada will keep showers in the Saturday forecast across northern sections of New York and New England. Colder air will also slide into the area.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2006A

FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM SUNDAY.THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S TONIGHT.

May 6, 2006: Accuweather

The east...will be stuck in a cool flow with temperatures in the 50s. This will be the result of a weak cool front dropping down from Canada, heading toward the Northeast.



Forecast:
May 10-12, 2006: Winds over the Northeast blow out of the south now elevating temperatures and bringing a chance of rain.

Results:

May 10, 2006: The Weather Channel
Northeast

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will develop over the mid-Atlantic states Thursday (May 11th) as a cold front slows in its eastward progress. A few of the storms over Virginia, eastern West Virginia and western Maryland could turn severe. Elsewhere in the Northeast, cloudiness and showers will prevail. Temperatures will be generally near to below mid-spring means with highs ranging from the 50s in much of eastern New England to the 70s in a good chunk of Virginia. South to southeast winds will become rather gusty in many areas in response to an unseasonably strong storm churning over the Great Lakes.


Forecast:
May 16-18, 2006: A cold front with its attendant cloudiness and precipitation
will offer a break from relatively high temperatures.

Results:

May 15, 2006: The Weather Channel

Northeast

…Rain will wind down overnight but more showers are on tap for New England on Tuesday (May 16th) as an area of low pressure aloft moves toward the area. Much of the Northeast will have to deal with these showers and even more rain is on tap for later in the week. Temperatures will be below average for mid-May…

May 17, 2006: The Weather Channel

Northeast

Another storm moves into the Northeast Thursday (May 18th) and hangs around into early Saturday…Eastern sections of the region should have a fairly mild day before the storms Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Western sections of the Northeast will already be experiencing the cooler temperatures behind the cold front with highs holding in the 50s to very low 60s.

Forecast:
May 22-23, 2006: Southerly winds will transport heat and humidity into the Northeast and New England resulting in atmospheric disturbance.

Results:

May 22, 2006: The Weather Channel

Northeast

Breezy and slightly cooler-than-average conditions will prevail again in the Northeast tomorrow (May 23rd). And although there'll be a few showers around, they'll be limited to northern New England and the Adirondacks. Frost may greet early risers in parts of New York state, Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, western Maryland and West Virginia, but afternoon readings throughout the region will push into 50s, 60s and 70s, north to south.

Forecast:
May 26-27, 2006: A storm system headed for the Canadian Maritimes will drop rain and kick up windy conditions over the Northeast and New England.

Results:

REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NEW YORK AND VERMONT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
822 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

SYNOPSIS, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ON TAP AFTER A BOUT OF ROUGH WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

Forecast:
May 30-June 1, 2006: Warmth makes its way through the eastern U.S. only to trigger stormy conditions from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Northeast. If not enough moisture is available to result in precipitation, wind will be the salient feature.

Results:

May 29, 2006: The Weather Channel

Northeast

New England and eastern New York will cool off a bit tomorrow as a cold front pushes southwestward from Canada. Hot weather, however, will grip the remainder of the Northeast…Scattered, or maybe only isolated, thunderstorms will accompany the heat and focus along the cold front. Thus, much of eastern New England, Virginia and West Virginia may remain free of precipitation.

May 30, 2006: The Weather Channel

Northeast

Warm, humid air will blanket the interior Northeast tomorrow, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly later in the day…Temperatures are expected be near to somewhat above end-of-May means with highs in the 70s in New England, eastern New York, much of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula, and the 80s elsewhere.

Some Results of May's Long-Range Weather Forecasts

On April 8th, 2006, May's long-range weather forecasts for the Northeast U.S. were posted. Here are some results of the first of these forecasts.

Click here for May 2006 Long-Range Forecasts.

Forecast

May 4-6, 2006: Fair and dry conditions with a lower range of temperatures are indicated for the area after a storm system hits around the 3rd.

Results

May 3, 2006: The Weather Channel
Precipitation will plod into western portions of the Northeast Thursday (4th) at the same time a wet weather system that has plagued New England over the past couple of days slinks away into the Atlantic.

May 5, 2006: National Weather Service
REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NEW YORK AND VERMON
TNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT.TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TOMORROW...

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UPTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEPTEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY (6th)NIGHT.

Forecast
May 6-8, 2006: The arrival of a colder air mass over the Northeast will result in precipitation.

May 6, 2006: The Weather Channel
Northeast
Low pressure aloft over eastern Canada will keep showers in the Saturday forecast across northern sections of New York and New England. Colder air will also slide into the area.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2006A

FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM SUNDAY.THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S TONIGHT.

May 6, 2006: Accuweather

The east...will be stuck in a cool flow with temperatures in the 50s. This will be the result of a weak cool front dropping down from Canada, heading toward the Northeast.

Some History of Astro-Meteorology

Click here for May 2006 long-range weather forecasts.

The first known work on weather and the atmosphere was The Meteorologica by the Greek philosopher-scientist Aristotle (384 B.C. to 322 B.C.). His pupil, Theophrastus expanded this early treatise in two works “On Winds” and “On the Signs of Rain, Winds, Storms, and Fair Weather.”

These were the sole authorities on meteorology until scientific investigations began in the 17th Century. (Ptolemy’s Tetrabiblos, 152 A.D. quoted brief excerpts).

In 1686, Dr. J. Goad’s Astro-meteorologica, based on 39 years of his own astro-weather observations and correlations, was published in London. Until the end of the 19th Century this text was the leading authority on the subject. It includes a transcript of astronomer Johannes Kepler’s diary of astro-weather observations from June 28, 1617 to August 9, 1629. Here Kepler expounded some of his theories relating planetary phenomena to atmospheric changes. It is a matter of historical record that he attained recognition for his remarkably accurate long-range weather forecasting long before advancing his laws of planetary motion. Kepler’s “Mysterium Cosmographicum” is a fully documented record of his work from 1602 to 1629. Some scientists who have written disparagingly of the renowned Kepler’s interest in correlating planetary phenomena to terrestrial events have rendered a disservice to the progress of science.

Critically tested astro-weather forecasts during the last century, ventured for various parts of the world more than a year in advance, support and confirm Kepler’s theories. He discovered that additional magnetic angles of 30, 45, 135 and 150 degrees between celestial bodies synchronized perfectly with atmospheric reactions.

Commander R. J. Morrison of the Royal Navy, publisher of the world known Zadkiel’s Almanac more than a century ago, further refined his predecessors’ discoveries with a more modern scientific approach.

Morrison’s successor, Dr. Alfred J. Pearce (1840-1923), continued the Almanac from 1876 for forty years. He also published his “Weather Guide” in London during 186r, The Science of the Stars in 1881, and completed a magnum opus—his Textbook Vol. II in 1889. In this expanded work, Pearce evolved new techniques from his own observations with detailed instructions in the method. He cited case histories and voluminous data to support and rationalize the theory of astro-meteorology.

Observations of solar radiation and sunspots will never lead to the discovery of the laws which regulate the weather. The atmosphere is often liable to unusual and long continued impressions, and these are induced by planetary action on the earth as well as on the Sun. Based on many years of specialized experience with astro-meteorology, we are convinced that to abandon this research is to render the discovery of the laws which regulate the weather, hopeless.

G.J. McCormack
1965

May 2006 Long-Range Weather Forecasts

The two maps above show the “Three Month Outlook” for April, May and June 2006 from the Climate Prediction Center. They were prepared in March 2006. The map on the top shows the precipitation outlook, and the map on the bottom shows the temperature outlook.

On the precipitation map, the areas where precipitation may be above average are marked by an "A". The areas where precipitation is forecast to be below average are marked with a "B". The areas marked "EC" are areas where there are equal chances of it being above or below average, or according to their own definition "the probability of the most likely category cannot be determined." The same three A, B, and EC designations apply to the temperature map.

If we look at the Northeast U.S., we see that Climate Prediction Center could not determine what to forecast regarding temperature and precipitation. By following Kepler’s long-range forecast method, however, we can make some long-range predictions that give us much more information regarding what the Northeast might expect during this time period. Since this article would grow too long if we were to list all the information this method might provide, we shall limit our observations to a few of the more outstanding weather patterns that will affect the Northeast U.S. during the month of May. Kepler's method can provide us with three key pieces of information:
1) the time the weather pattern will manifest
2) the type of weather
3) the location

Forecasts for the Northeast U.S. and surruounding areas:

May 4-6, 2006: Fair and dry conditions with a lower range of temperatures are indicated for the area after a storm system hits around the 3rd.

May 6-8, 2006: The arrival of a colder air mass over the Northeast will result in precipitation.

May 10-12, 2006: Winds over the Northeast blow out of the south now elevating temperatures and bringing a chance of rain.

May 16-18, 2006: A cold front with its attendant cloudiness and precipitation will offer a break from relatively high temperatures.

May 22-23, 2006: Southerly winds will transport heat and humidity into the the Northeast and New England resulting in atmospheric disturbance.

May 26-27, 2006: A storm system headed for the Canadian Maritimes will drop rain and kick up windy conditions over the Northeast and New England.

May 30-June 1, 2006: Warmth makes its way through the eastern U.S. only to trigger stormy conditions from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Northeast. If not enough moisture is available to result in precipitation, wind will be the salient feature.

Saxby's Weather System

Saxby's Weather System was publised in 1864. The author, Stephen Martin Saxby, presented his case for lunar influence on earthly weather. He summed things up in the following words:

"I found that the moon never crosses the earth's equator or reaches her poisition of stitial colure (maximum declination north or south of the equator), without a marked disturbance of the atmosphere occurring at the same period."

What kind of weather did Saxby expect when the moon reached theses key positions? "...such changes most commonly are accompanied either by strong winds, gales, sudden frosts, sudden thaw, sudden calms, or other certain interruptions of the weather, according to the season."

Saxby realized that this "key" was just part of the weather picture and could not pinpoint the places where such weather phenomena would take place when he stated "It is too much to expect of me that I can define the terrestrial limits of any results which at certain times may present themselves under lunar influences...All I can do at present (or at least all I at present feel justified in declaring, with some exceptions) is that certain periods named in my lists will be times of change."

Saxby considered that these atmospheric changes could take place over a four day period i.e. the day before, the day during, and until two days after the aforementioned lunar positions.

Of course, we know that much more goes into forming our weather than that, but Saxby was on to something. It seems that powerful weather systems are somehow linked to these times. Out of curiosity, I picked the dates of some major storms and hurricanes and checked the lunar positions. All of them coincided with Saxby's allowable window of influence. Here they are:

Hurricane Andrew
August 24, 1992
Moon at maximum north declination on August 22 1992

Hurricane Katrina
August 29, 2005
Moon at maximum north declination on August 28, 2005

Tsunami
December 26, 2004
Moon at maximum north declination and at Full Moon December 26, 2004

Blizzard of '93
March 12-13, 1993
Moon at maximum south declination on March 14, 1993

Hurricane Wilma pounds the Yucatan Peninsula
October 21-23, 2005
Moon at maximum north declination October 22, 2005

March 1-4, 2006 Forecast Results

The Weather Alternative bases its forecasts on Johannes Kepler's long-range forecast system. Planetary cycles are at the heart of Kepler's method and enable its practitioners to venture forecasts much further into the future than conventional meteorology can at present. The following forecast, posted on February 16, 2006, and its results are an example of the accuracy that can be attained by this method.

Having worked with this system for a number of years, I never cease to be amazed at the beauty and the "down-to-earth" practicality that its designer bestowed upon the heavenly bodies. The members of our solar system no longer appear to be unrelated and meaningless masses of rock and gas circling the sun as science sometimes leaves us feeling. But God has given purpose to the planets and equipped his offspring with a built-in, environmentally safe, long-range weather forecasting tool for our service.



Forecast:
March Comes in Like a Lion

March 1-4, 2006:
A major winter storm will roar into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on gusty winds. Its trek through the Great Basin and Rockies will provoke falling temperatures and prompt winter storm warnings and high wind advisories.

Results

Accuweather displayed the following weather map on Tuesday, February 28th.

Graphic courtesy of accuweather.com

February 28, 2006
The Weather Channel

By afternoon, western Washington, western Oregon and northern California will come under assault from a Gulf of Alaska storm as rain and wind spread eastward. Late tomorrow and tomorrow night, the heaviest rains and mountain snows will smack southwestern Oregon and northern California while strong, gusty winds lay into the Oregon and northern California coasts.


March 1, 2006
The Weather Channel

Many in the West will be in between systems today, as one spreads showers and snow through the central and southern Rockies, while the next system targets the Northwest. A few showers and higher elevation snow will fall, especially across the Colorado Rockies.

March 3, 2006
The Weather Channel

A new western storm system will take aim on California today.

Forecast:

An intense cold front will usher in cold Canadian air that will lower temperatures, and rev up winds that will result in strong storms over the Plains.

Results

Accuweather displayed the following weather map on February 28, 2006.

Graphic courtesy of accuweather.com

March 1, 2006
Accuweather

The combination of the storm system moving east and high pressure building over the central Rockies is going to create strong winds across the Plains States. AccuWeather.com is forecasting wind speeds will average 15-25 mph, but there will be gusts of up to 35 mph, and some areas could also see experience gusts topping 50 mph on Thursday afternoon (March 2nd).

March 2, 2006
The Weather Channel

Midwest
With cool high pressure settling over the region, high temperatures today will be noticeably cooler; in some cases about 15 to 20 degrees cooler.

Forecast:

A significant storm will also batter the Northeast and New England as warm, moist air is pulled up over the region, particularly around the 4th. Due to the incursion of southerly moisture, precipitation may mostly manifest as rain.

Results

March 2, 2006
Accuweather

WINTER STORM CREATES HAVOC IN NORTHAST

The late-winter storm rolling through the Northeast has closed schools and caused travel problems.

Senior Meteorologist Gerald Mohler...is forecasting today's target for the heaviest snowfall will be extreme northeastern Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York state, with 8 to 9 inches of snow likely to fall in that area.

According to Mohler, the warm air from the South has pushed well into the Northeast, keeping much of the precipitation in this system in the form of rain, freezing rain and sleet. The snow is falling across north-central Pennsylvania and central New York, while the greater Philadelphia area is receiving mostly freezing rain.

Mohler is forecasting temperatures across the southern edge of the storm will push above the freezing mark by mid-morning, and the precipitation will change to all rain.

March 2, 2006
Weather Map courtesy of the Weather Channel

March 4, 2006
The Weather Channel

Northeast
A strong and persistent area of low pressure in the Maritimes of Canada will keep a cold northwesterly flow of air across the region. Winds may gust from 35 to 40 mph at times. Wind chills throughout the region will hover in the teens and twenties this afternoon. Moisture moving back around the Maritime low will back down through Quebec into parts of Vermont and New Hampshire and several inches of snow may accumulate. A heavy snow warning is in place for northern Vermont until Sunday morning. Meanwhile, snow showers may fall in areas near Lakes Erie and Ontario.

March Comes in Like a Lion

March 1-4, 2006:

A major winter storm will roar into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on gusty winds. Its trek through the Great Basin and Rockies will provoke falling temperatures and prompt winter storm warnings and high wind advisories.

An intense cold front will usher in cold Canadian air that will lower temperatures, and rev up winds that will result in strong storms over the Plains.

A significant storm will also batter the Northeast and New England as warm, moist air is pulled up over the region, particularly around the 4th. Due to the incursion of southerly moisture, precipitation may mostly manifest as rain.

Valentine's Day Forecast Results

On February 1st, The Weather Alternative posted its Valentine's Day Forecast, which called for the following:

West Coast lovers should expect a cold, wet, and windy time as a storm system pushes through the Pacific Northwest and on through the Great Basin and Rockies.
East Coast lovers should experience relatively warm and fair conditions from the Mid-Atlantic States into the Northeast and New England due to a southerly air flow.

Results (West)

The Weather Channel
8:45 a.m. ET 2/14/2006

Milder east, colder west

The National Weather Service

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 429 AM PST TUE FEB 14 2006

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT SAN FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTTODAY USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV452 AM PST MON FEB 13 2006

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY (14th) THROUGH SUNDAY
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTWINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA...FAR SOUTHERN AND THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 505 AM MST MON FEB 13 2006

.A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHTHROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS CANBE EXPECTED...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 430 AM PST MON FEB 13 2006

AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD CONDITIONS...MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON... THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT (14th)...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...

(Numerous Winter Storm, Wind, and Freeze Advisories were issued throughout the West, Great Basin, and Rockies)

Results (East)

Map courtesy of Accuweather
The Weather Channel
Feb 14, 2006

Higher temperatures and dry conditions are more than appreciated for those affected by this past weekend’s snowstorm. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s from Boston to Baltimore. Even warmer weather will persist through the week, with Washington, D.C., approaching 60 degrees on Thursday.

October 2005 Scoreboard--80 percent accuracy

Here are the results for forecasts made for October 2005.

Click here for Valentine's Day Forecast.

Forecast

October 13-15, 2005
A strong cold front will push across the eastern US lowering temperatures and exciting gusty winds. There is a possibility that the front will interact with a tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico around 84 West Longitude and 25 North Latitude threatening the Florida Panhandle and eastern Gulf States.The Mississippi Valley will see stormy conditions while the West Coast gets a shot of colder air and windy weather that moves into the Great Basin.

Results

October 13, 2005
The Weather Channel
Areas from the New York City metropolitan area to Southern New England could see locally heavy rainfall today. Flood watches remain in place throughout the region as rivers and streams continue to run high along with an already saturated ground. Winds will also remain gusty, especially along coastal areas where gusts could reach 30 to 40 mph.

October 14, 2005
The Weather Channel
Northeast
...strong low pressure over Quebec will result in stiff northwest winds across the region.

Eastern Gulf of Mexico around 84 West Longitude/25 North Latitude

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL805 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005

A WEAK 1010 MB LOW SITS JUST OFF THE COAST JUST S OF DAYTONA FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT RUNNING SW JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE E GULF NEAR 25N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE E GULF.

The Weather Channel
October 14, 2005

West
A strong Pacific system will target the Pacific Northwest beginning later Friday (14th) and into Saturday (15th). This will result in locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and light snows in the higher elevations.

Midwest
A dry cold front will sweep across the region on Friday with very little impact. Winds will be quite gusty (generally 20-30 mph) in portions of the Upper Midwest.


Forecast

October 14-15, 2005
A developing storm will take aim on the New England area as moisture is drawn up from the south and interacts with colder Canadian air.
Tropical moisture heads toward the Yucatan of Mexico resulting in heavy rain.

Results

October 14, 2005

The Weather Channel
Northeast

Heavy rain has been pounding areas from central New Jersey northeastward to southern Connecticut and Rhode Island during the overnight hours (including New York City and Long Island)...The heavy rainfall threat should be over on Sunday, but strong low pressure over Quebec will result in stiff northwest winds across the region.

October 15, 2005

Northeast

Four to six inches of rain soaked most of southern New England and eastern Long Island. These torrential rains on top of what fell last weekend was the proverbial final straw, triggering widespread flooding.

Yucatan of Mexico

October 15, 2005

Accuweather

Saturday, low pressure marked by heavy convective cloudiness is located in and about the island of Jamaica...This situation bears close watching for those in northern Honduras, western Cuba and eastern Yucatan, Mexico.

October 15, 2005

El Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de la CONAGUA, fuente oficial del gobierno de México (Mexican Meteorological Service)

También se esperan lluvias de moderadas a fuertes en el litoral del Golfo de México, Sureste del país y Península de Yucatán. (Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected along the coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Southeast, and the Yucatan Peninsula)

Forecast

October 15-18, 2005
Tropical storm formation or passage is indicated in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico around 94 West Longitude and 26 North Latitude. Long-range forecast models show that the coastal areas of eastern Texas and western Louisiana will most likely feel the effects of this tropical influence.
Extreme southern Mexico, around the State of Oaxaca should experience heavy rains due to an influx of tropical moisture.
Tropical storm formation seems likely north of Haiti near 72 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude. The island itself should feel the effects of tropical downpours at this time.

Results

October 15-18, 2005

No tropical storm formation in the northwest Gulf of Mexico was reported.

October 15, 2005

Mexican Meteorological Service

Oaxaca to Chiapas coast.
Warm. Partly cloudy to cloudy. Moderate to strong rain with thunderstorms. Light to moderate north and northeast wind.

October 15, 2006

National Weather Service

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI.

Forecast

October 20-21, 2005
Relative humidities will increase over the Mississippi Valley and eastward. This may result in fog potential or lower barometer resulting in precipitation.
The potential for tropical downpours is indicated over the southern Mexican State of Chiapas.

Results

October 20, 2005

The Weather Channel

Midwest

The same storm system (upper low) that was once stationed off of the Southern California coast earlier this week...is now located around the mid-Mississippi Valley. Yesterday evening, the upper low along with a surface dryline both helped to trigger shower and thunderstorms (some severe) across southern Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. All of this activity will shift east into Missouri and the majority of the Ohio Valley. Some thunderstorms across southern Missouri may contain large hail and gusty winds.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 451 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 651 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 808 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

El Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de la CONAGUA, fuente oficial del gobierno de México (Mexican Meteorological Service)

Estados con potencial de TORMENTAS ORDINARIAS (de 20 a 50 mm en 24 h o mayor a 10 mm en 1 h) válido hasta las 18:00 h, para la población de los siguientes estados: (Thunderstorm Warning- 0.7 to 1.9 inches of rain in 24 hrs. or over 0.4 inches in 1 hour)

Chiapas y Tabasco.

Forecast

October 22-23, 2005
What appears to be a powerful storm system will leave its mark over the Four Corners region of the Rockies and Nevada as it brings gusty winds and rain to the region.

Results

No storm system over the Rockies was reported.

October 25-26, 2005
The inhabitants the Dominican Republic should prepare for possible tropical storm or hurricane passage as the area just south of there (69W/17N) has the potential to attract a low pressure system.
In the eastern Pacific, the area in and around 120 West Longitude and 15 North Latitude (about 850 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas) is another potential area for hurricane or tropical storm genesis.

Results

October 24, 2005

The Weather Channel

(Tropical Storm) Alpha, meanwhile, weakened to a tropical depression after making landfall in the Dominican Republic yesterday (23rd) as a minimal tropical storm. Alpha pushed across Haiti and back over open water, but is not expected to regain tropical storm strength as it races northward away from the southeastern Bahamas

National Weather Service

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1605 UTC WED OCT 26 2005

TWO SURFACE LOWS ARE EMBEDDED INT THE ITCZ...ON NEAR 11N105W...1011 MB AND ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N116W.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL2205 UTC THU OCT 27 2005

...SPECIAL FEATURES...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 12N117W 1011 MB IS MOVING WNW 10 KT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER. SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTOM ACTIVITY NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.

October 28-30, 2005
As cold air pushes through the Northeast US, storm conditions will develop over Maryland, Delaware, and surrounding States.

Results

October 27, 2005

The Weather Channel

Northeast

One last strong cold upper-level disturbance is muscling its way into the Northeast from out of eastern Canada. At the same time, low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast and head north-northeastward to off the Jersey Shore by late Friday (28th)...On Saturday (29th), the strengthening storm will continue its trek from off New Jersey to just off the southwest tip of Nova Scotia. Significant coastal rain and interior wet snow could invade Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire and Down East Maine.

October 28, 2005

The Weather Channel

Low pressure is developing off the Carolina coast this morning and will be a weather factor along the East Coast today and tomorrow. Rain has already developed in eastern North Carolina and it will begin to slide northward into southeast Virginia and the southern Delmarva during the day. The proximity of this relatively weak area of low pressure and the strong and expansive area of high pressure established across the entire eastern half of the country will allow a tight pressure gradient to form and the resultant gusty onshore northeasterly winds pouring into the North Carolina and Virginia coast.

October 29, 2005

The Weather Channel

An area of low pressure aloft will combine with another low offshore to produce some rain and wet snow to parts of New England today. Most of the precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, will be across southeast Rhode Island, Cape Cod and eastern Massachusetts, coastal New Hampshire and coastal southern Maine however wet snow may mix in from time to time... The north-northeasterly winds will become gusty along the New England Coast. The storm will exit into the Maritimes by tomorrow.

Valentine's Day Forecast

February 13-15, 2006:

West Coast lovers should expect a cold, wet, and windy time as a storm system pushes through the Pacific Northwest and on through the Great Basin and Rockies.

East Coast lovers should experience relatively warm and fair conditions from the Mid-Atlantic States into the Northeast and New England due to a southerly air flow.

Forecast Results

On January 18th, I posted forecasts for potent storms to afflict the Northwest and Northeast U.S. between January 26-28, 2006. (Click here for forecast)

Here are the results:

Graphic courtesy of Accuweather

The Weather Channel reported that on January 25th "Strong winds behind a departing low will continue to affect the Northeast with gusty winds as high as 40 mph through Thursday (Jan 26) in some locales. Lake-effect snow will be falling across Northeast Ohio, Northwest Pennsylvania and Western and Northern New York state where some locations will see as much as 6-12" of snow into Thursday."











Graphic courtesy of Accuweather

The Weather Channel reports today that "A moisture-ladened Pacific storm is crashing ashore this morning along the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. The storm is packing plenty of wind, heavy rain and snow. Winds along coastal Oregon gusted late last night and this morning between 60 and 90 mph. Cape Blanco, Ore. has consistently gusted over 80 mph this morning. Precipitation should slide down into California and a winter storm warning is in effect for the Lake Tahoe area where at lake level 3 to 6 inches of snow is expected combined with winds gusting to 50 mph. Winds could gust to 120 mph over the ridge tops of the Sierra and 80 mph through the foothills of western Nevada."

January 26-28, 2006 Storm Alert

Two potent storm systems will afflict the East and West Coasts of the United States between January 26-28, 2006. Several weather cycles now culminate resulting in predominant low barometric pressure and above normal precipitation.

These storms should center over the Pacific Northwest, and the Northeast into New England.

Hurricane Season 2006

Work is under way on long-range weather forecasts for Hurricane Season 2006. This will take awhile before they are posted.

Another project to be posted is the forecast results of The Weather Alternative forecasts for October and November 2005.

Great Plains Blizzard of 2005

Click here for November Forecasts.

Graphics courtesy of Accuweather.com

Conventional forecasters are saying that the blizzard affecting the Northern Plains with over a foot of snow and sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph will go down is history as the Great Plains Blizzard of 2005.

The Weather Alternative posted the following forecast on September 9, 2005:

November 27-29, 2005:

Forecast: Increasing wind speeds and falling temperatures will be the story from the western Great Lakes, across the Mississippi Valley, and eastward as cold Canadian air pushes southward. This weather pattern will extend across the eastern Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic area etc...

Cold and Windy West

Click here for November Forecasts

Weather Graphic courtesy of Accuweather.

This Weather Alternative forecast was posted on September 9th, over 2 months ago.

November 27-29, 2005:

Forecast: A cool high pressure area will enter the West Coast. This drier air mass may ignite some storms and windy conditions in its attempt to establish itself over the region.

The Weather Channel reports that "strong, gusty winds are expected to gallop over the Southwest—especially the higher elevations—and the southern Great Basin. Strong Santa Ana winds are likely tonight and early tomorrow in Southern California."

The National Weather Service has issued a frost adivsory for parts of California:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

HANFORD CA

636 PM PST SAT NOV 26 2005

...FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR TONIGHT....A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARSKIES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

Midwest Blast

Click here for November Forecasts.

Graphics courtesy of Accuweather.com

Here's another Weather Alternative forecast that was posted back on September 9, 2005:

November 21-24, 2005:
Forecast: This promises to be a very active period for the Plains. The necessary ingredients to produce blizzard-like conditions seem to be present over the Northern Tier States.

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm warnings for the Great Lakes area.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

MARQUETTE MI 519 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE...A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...GENERATING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYNIGHT. VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVINGHOLIDAY.

Approaching East Coast Storm

Click here for November Forecasts

Graphics courtesy of Accuweather.com

As shown above, conventional forecasters are predicting a major East Coast storm Monday and Tuesday, November 21-22, 2005.

Accuweather states "Adverse weather with the big East Coast storm will begin in the Southeast late Sunday and early Monday before spreading quickly through the Eastern Seaboard to New York and New England Monday through early Tuesday... Much of Florida and Georgia through the coastal plain of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia will have a threat of severe local thunderstorms, including hail, high winds and even isolated tornadoes... Another factor will be that of high winds, especially coastal winds, as the storm spins up dramatically late Monday through Tuesday. New England will bear the brunt of coastal winds along with tide and wave action, but there will be strong winds well inland at this time too. As if these were not enough, there will be a wintry side to the storm, too. Cold air will pour into the Midwest Monday night and Tuesday.

(Bold print added by The Weather Alternative)

On September 9th of this year, The Weather Alternative posted forecasts for November 2005. The East Coast storm and the cold air entering the Midwest were mentioned in these forecasts although the timing seems to be a day or so off.

For example, the cold air to pour into the Midwest on the 21st and 22nd was mentioned in the November 19-20 forecast:

"Another bout of blustery weather and lower temperatures is shown for the Mississippi Valley and Eastern U.S. "

The East Coast storm scheduled for Monday and Tuesday November 21-22 was specified in The Weather Alternative forecast for November 23-24:

"The clash between high and low pressure systems will focus on the coastal areas of Virginia and North Carolina. High winds or severe storms are likely to hit this area. This may be part of a larger weather pattern that affects the Mid-Atlantic area."

Tropical Storm Gamma and Midwest Storm

Click here for November Forecasts.

Here are some updates on The Weather Alternative's November Forecasts. These were prepared between August 21, 2005 and September 6, 2005.

November 12-15, 2005:
Forecast: It seems that a tropical weather system, be it a tropical wave, storm etc., or other severe weather pattern will affect Hispañola.

As can be seen from the above map, Tropical Depression 27 (soon to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma) is forecast to pass close to Hispañola over the next few days.

Another Weather Alternative forecast that's shaping up is the following:

November 14-17, 2005:
Forecast: The incursion of colder air over the eastern half of the country and consequent tumbling temperatures will necessitate frost and freeze advisories over the region. The 16th and 17th appear to be high points when cold air and windy conditions will manifest over the Mississippi Valley area.

The Weather Channel reports the following:

A strong cold front will smash into the South tomorrow, and with it, some very dangerous weather. While scattered showers and storms will speckle much of the South, nasty thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and violent tornadoes will sweep eastward from the eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas across the Mississippi Valley during the daylight hours and on eastward during the evening. At highest risk for potentially deadly storms are eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. Behind the front, gusty winds will hurl colder air southward toward the Texas Gulf Coast and eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

West Coast and Midwest Storms

Click here for November Forecasts

The Weather Alternative forecasts for November 2005 were prepared between August 21, 2005 and September 6, 2005.

Here's an update on two forecasts for November 5-7, 2005.

Forecast: Another round of storms batters the West Coast States. Moist, warm air finds its way over the region producing "caffeinated" storms over the Intermountain West.

Today the Weather Channel reported "Another Pacific storm will take aim on the Pacific Northwest today resulting in increasing winds, rain and snow. This system is the latest, in a series of storms, to batter the Pacific Northwest and this trend will continue next week. A flood watch in effect for today and through much of Sunday for northwestern Oregon including the Willamette Valley."

Forecast: As warm, moist air is funneled northward over the Plains, colder, drier air rushes southward over the Mississippi Valley. The inevitable result is that storms will erupt over both these areas as the colder air collides with this southerly invasion. Watch, in particular, for strong storms over the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Gusty winds usually accompany this pattern.

Today Accuweather related the following: "Cold air blasting in from the northern Plains is colliding with warm, moist air from the South, creating an explosive, fast-moving band of thunderstorms that will pummel the Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes today. The region will experience a line of strong storms with high winds, locally heavy rainfall, and possibility of hail. Scattered power outages are possible due to the high winds and damage caused by the storms."