Thursday, August 24, 2006

September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Most of these forecasts were prepared in December 2005.

August 30-Sept 1:
Look for increasing moisture over the southern California coast resulting in foggy conditions or rain.
Storms will be active over the Rockies.

Sept. 2-5:
A potential Hurricane Hot Spot is activated off the eastern coast of Mexico in the Gulf around the 2nd or 3rd. At the same time, a broad area encompassing the central Caribbean, Cuba, Florida, and the Carolinas may be the breeding grounds for more tropical activity.

Sept. 3-5:
Changes are also underway for the West Coast States and the Rockies. Look for lower temperatures and windy conditions there. The New England area should expect strong storms that head to the Canadian Maritimes.
A tropical disturbance may flare up over the Bahamas.

Sept. 5-7:
More moisture is drawn up over southern California resulting in an increased chance of showers and thunder storms.
The Rockies warm up as winds from the south increase temperatures and precipitation.
Texas and the Plains at this time will deal with unseasonable heat that cranks up the storm machine over the area.

Sept 6-8:
Tropical troubles may be brewing for the island of Hispañola and surrounding areas.
The US East Coast will attract a tropical flow over Virginia and northward through the eastern Great Lakes. If not an actual tropical system, strong storms will drop heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and bring windy conditions.

Sept. 8-9:
A stormy period continues for the U.S. West Coast and the Plains.

Sept. 12-14:
Gusty winds hit the Plains, and storms affect the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England. These storms over the eastern U.S. should bring abundant moisture and cause flooding problems. The culprit may be a tropical system drawn up over North Carolina or Virginia.
Moisture increases over the southern California area. A front triggers showers and storms over the Rockies.
Heavy rain is indicated for the island of Hispañola, which may be due to some type of tropical system.

Sept. 14-16:
Tropical activity is shown for the area in and around Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, a new cold front hits the West Coast States dropping temperatures and increasing moisture.
The Mississippi Valley and eastward will be the focal point for windy and stormy conditions.

Sept. 16-17:
A potential tropical disturbance may get its act together over Cuba and Florida. A low pressure system will develop over the Front Range of the Rockies.

Sept 19-21:
Storm potential is shown for the island of Hispañola and the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast.

Sept 20-22:
Heavy downpours are shown over the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba.

Sept. 21-23:
The U.S. West Coast shows severe weather in the form of extreme temperature changes and/or storms.

The insurgence of warm, moist air over the Gulf Coast States from Texas to Florida will act as a potential storm breeder on its journey northward into the central U.S.

Severe storms will break out over the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast.

Sept. 23-25:
A tropical weather system may be brewing near the Dominican Republic and tropical moisture unloads over the Florida Panhandle.

Sept. 24-26:
A blast of cold air will assault the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast generating gusty winds and slashing temperatures.
A new Hurricane Hot Spot emerges for the fall portion of the hurricane season off the coast of Africa. The formation of a significant tropical system is possible now along the African West Coast around 18 West Longitude and 18 North Latitude, which should move westward toward 31 West-16 North.
Another danger spot is shown along the eastern Central American coast of Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras.
Noteworthy weather events are in store for the U.S. West Coast bringing abnormally wet conditions. Such will be the case for coastal California especially around the 26th when an influx of tropical moisture is drawn northward over the State from southern regions. The western Plains carry the potential for excessive humidity and abnormal rainfall to dominate now and move eastward through the Mississippi Valley.

Sept 26-28:
The potential for heavy rainfall is shown over the eastern US from the eastern Great Lakes southward to Virginia. Storms are indicated for the Plains.

Sept. 28-30:
The Central Gulf of Mexico may spawn a tropical disturbance that is drawn up over the Mississippi-Alabama costal area and into the Deep South. If not an actual tropical system, at the least tropical moisture should be funneled into the area from the Gulf. Rain is indicated over the Florida Peninsula. Low pressure may form off the Baja sending moisture over southern California.

Sept. 29-Oct. 1:
A tropical system may be indicated between Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles now.

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