Sunday, July 23, 2006

August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were developed during the first two weeks of December 2005.

I’ve included the dates of the Moon’s maximum declination north and south of the equator as well as its equatorial crossing. I’ve noticed that many hurricanes have formed or made landfall around these dates.

Aug. 1-2:
Significant storms focus on the Northeast and New England.

Aug. 6:
Moon attains maximum south declination.

Aug. 6-7:
The coastal areas from Virginia and North Carolina through New England are in for some severe weather in the form of storms producing wind and rain.

Aug. 9-12:
A tropical system may get its act together over Cuba and the Bahamas. Tropical moisture from this system or elsewhere should be pulled up over the Florida Peninsula and the Carolinas. Severe storms will develop over the Ohio Valley as well.
Another hot spot for hurricane development is shown off the eastern coast of Mexico in the western Gulf around 96 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude.

Aug. 12:
Moon crosses equator.

Aug. 11-13:
Gusty winds will prevail along the West Coast with storm potential further inland.

Aug 14-15:
Meteorological mayhem breaks out over the Southeast U.S. through the Ohio Valley as atmospheric elements combine over the area. One scenario shows a tropical system approaching the west coast of Florida and pushing inland with soaking rains. Another model suggests strong storms with damaging winds and flooding.

Aug. 16-18:
A strong storm system is indicated over New England and the Canadian Maritimes as energy moving from the west interacts with a warm, moist air mass.

Aug. 19:
Moon attains maximum north declination.

Aug. 19-22:
Several atmospheric ingredients will come together over the Southeastern States from the Big Bend of Florida into Georgia creating a threat of severe weather. The threat will extend into the Ohio Valley as well. It is possible that this signifies a tropical system or at least abundant tropical moisture that drops heavy rain over the Southeast.

Aug. 20-22:
Another potential Hurricane Hot Spot that also bears watching now extends from the central Gulf of Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Aug 22-23:
Increasing moisture over the central California coast may lead to anomalous rainfall.
A strong low pressure system develops over the western Great Lakes unleashing strong thunderstorms and gusty winds. (Forecast in italics was added on August 8, 2006)

Aug. 26:
Moon crosses equator.

Aug. 26-27:
The central Gulf of Mexico is still a concern for tropical activity during this period.
The West Coast States and Intermountain area will more than likely experience an influx of moisture setting off storms and flash flooding at this time.
An important area worth watching now is the U.S. Southeast particularly northern Florida through the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina. Severe weather, perhaps a tropical system, is possible here.

Aug. 28-30:
Tropical storm formation is possible over the central Baja Peninsula. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is imminent over the Colorado Front Range and adjacent areas.
Tropical troubles are still brewing over a broad area from western Cuba through western Florida and into Georgia and South Carolina. (See August 26-27)

Aug. 30-Sept. 1:
The West Coast and Intermountain West should feel the effects of a strong monsoonal flow that will unleash heavy rainfall over the area. Abnormal amounts of moisture are shown over the southern California coast.
Another potential Hurricane or severe weather trouble spot forms over Louisiana.
The indications for the Northeast are that windy and stormy conditions will affect the Eastern Seaboard from around Washington DC northward into New England.

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