Saturday, February 13, 2010

January 2010 Forecast Results Part II

These forecasts were posted on December 22, 2009.

January 4-5
A storm system develops along the east side of the Rockies as moist air, drawn from the Gulf, collides with cooler air from the north. One scenario is that the storm system ejects into the Plains bringing cold and windy conditions behind the low. Or the cold and windy conditions may be the result of a front stretching from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes.

The above map is from the Weather Channel for January 5th. You can see the low along the east side of the Rockies over Montana and Wyoming. This later ejected (on the 6th) into the Plains. Very cold and windy conditions were behind the low and a front stretched from the southern Plains to the Western Great Lakes on the 7th. Temperatures in the Plains were in the single digits and teens.

January 7-10
Warm, moist air begins to move northward over Texas and the southern Plains around the 7th bringing a chance of showers. By the 9th, the potential for storminess is heightened. Most of the activity may be over Texas.

There were some showers over the coastal areas of Texas on the 7th, but the main event at this time was bitter cold from the 7th to the 9th. By the 10th, temperatures were 10 to 30 degrees higher.


January 26-27
Cold air invades the Plains out of Canada creating stormy conditions as a powerful cold front pushes westward.

The Weather Channel map at right is for January 27th and shows a cold front entering the Plains. . By the 28th, this met up with a low over western Texas that developed into an ice storm over the southern Plains and the northern part of the cold front, connected to a low pressure system, intensified over the northeast U.S. bringing another blast of winter.


January 2-5

The arrival of warm, moisture-laden air over the Rockies on the 2nd and 3rd will battle with a cold Canadian air mass resulting in windy conditions or a storm center producing winds.

(Refer to the first weather map of this post for January 5th) Windy conditions over the Rockies were reported as follows:

January 5th (Accuweather)

Gusty winds whipped the snow around across Montana. Whitewater, Mont., received 4.0 inches of snow, but winds created 2- to 3-foot high drifts.

January 5th (National Weather Service)

Albuquerque, NM
6:01 am MST, Tue., Jan. 5, 2010


Grand Junction, CO
8:07 am MST, Tue., Jan. 5, 2010



January 7
A sharp cold front pushes southward over the Rockies lowering temperatures.

The Weather Channel map at left is for January 6th. Accuweather reported "A new blast of arctic air plunged into the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday (Jan 6th)."


January 10
A trough of low pressure digs into the southern Rockies.

On the 10th, the Weather Channel reported that a storm system was headed toward the southern Rockies and would arrive around the 12th and 13th. In their own words, "A second storm system helps push the rain and snow toward Southern California and the Southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday."


January 21-22
A fresh push of cold air over the Rockies will react with its warm, moist counterpart resulting in a storm system.

The Weather Channel reported on the 21st:

Stormy conditions will rule the West right through Friday as the jet stream remains pointed at the region like a fire hose.

The brunt of the activity will be focused from California to portions of Nevada, Utah, western Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico.


January 24-25
Another period when contrary air masses clash over the Rockies resulting in showers.


A storm system arrived late on the 25th and pushed into the Four Corners region spreading snow in the mountains on the 26th and 27th.


January 13-16
Inclement weather will plague the Intermountain West as a strong front or low pressure area ushers in wind, rain, and snow.


January 13 Accuweather
A more potent storm pushed rain and mountain snow from the West Coast into the Intermountain West…As the storm pressed into the Intermountain West and high pressure moved inland, gusty offshore winds developed over parts of Southern California. The above Weather Channel map is for January 13th.


January 21-24
Another batch of wind and rain heads toward the Pacific Northwest and into the Intermountain West.

The Weather Channel map at left is for January 22nd. This was a very active time which actually started on the 17th. Here are some of Accuweather's headlines for the 21st through the 24th.

January 21
The latest storm to hit the West has been the strongest so far this month, breaking barometric pressure records along the coast.

January 22
Up to 8 Feet of Snow from West Storm

January 24
Farther west, another storm pressed onshore in the Pacific Northwest. By the afternoon, windswept rain soaked the coast from central California to Washington, while snow began piling up in the mountains.


January 26-31
An active weather pattern develops off the Pacific Northwest coast and hurls wind and rain in Washington, Oregon, and California. It appears that a number of fronts will ride through the area between these dates and push into the Intermountain West.

This Weather Channel map is for January 26th. Accuweather's reported that a new Pacific storm returned rain to southern California. On the 28th, some spotty rain, freezing rain, and snow fell over Washington, Oregon, and northwestern California. On the 29th, a new storm delivered rain to the Pacific Northwest and northwestern California. And on the 30th, a storm spread some showers and mountain snow across the Pacific Northwest.

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Saint Patrick's Day 2010 Weather Forecast

What Is Greatness?

Do not confuse notoriety and fame with greatness. Many of the titled in today's world obtained their fame and fortune outside their own merit.

On the other hand, I have met great people in the most obscure roles. For greatness is a measure of one's spirit, not a result of one's rank in human affairs. Nobody, least of all mere human beings, confers greatness upon another, for it is not a prize but an achievement. And greatness can crown the head of a janitor just as readily as it can come to someone of high rank.
--Sherman G. Finesilver

Thursday, February 11, 2010

January 2010 Forecast Results Part I

These forecasts were posted on December 22, 2009. The first one read:

January 4-5, 2009
There is strong potential for a Nor’easter type storm to hit the New England area with cold, snow, and windy conditions.


The storm hit earlier than forecast. The above map is for January 3rd dumping nearly 3 feet of snow in parts of northern New England. Howling winds and snow lashed a swath from northern New York to Maine. By the 4th, it was still blustery and snowy over the area.


January 13-16, 2009
A major winter storm is indicated for the Great Lakes area southward through the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast. High wind, snow, and falling temperatures assail the area. The storm then moves into the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast disrupting travel and causing power outages.


For most of the forecast period, the weather was a bit warmer and dry. By the 16th, however, travel was interrupted by heavy rain over the Southeast. Some communities from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia were inundated by up to half a foot of rain. By the 17th, it was windy, rainy, and snowy over the Northeast. The above map is for January 16th.


January 27-31
Another significant winter storm forms over the East Central States (Michigan southward to the Gulf Coast). By the 29th and 30th, storm warnings should be posted for New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware as the storm moves eastward into New England.

On January 30th, a major snow storm brought travel to a standstill across the southern mid-Atlantic. Heavy snow shifted eastward across Virginia and parts of Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey, creating major disruptions to travel and affecting people from Richmond, Va., to Washington, D.C., and Cape May, N.J. Meanwhile, icy winds blasted parts of the Northeast.


January 10-12
A storm system or front affects the southern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.

The Weather Channel map at right is for January 11th and shows the leading edge of a cold front pushing past the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the southern Plains.


January 25-27
A strong low pressure area is shown over the central Mississippi Valley.


On the 25th, blizzard or near-blizzard conditions affected the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. By the 27th, a band of heavy snow developed from eastern New Mexico to southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.


January 29-31
A strong storm system is indicated over the Mississippi Valley with an area of severe weather over Mississippi and Alabama around the 31st.

The storm that swept through the southern Plains on the 28th, affected the lower Mississippi Valley on the 29th. The Weather Channel map at left is for Jan 29th. According to Accuweather, Northern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas and Tennessee saw the heaviest snow, while central Arkansas, and northern Mississippi and Alabama, saw freezing rain.

The following is a list of storm total rainfall in inches as of 1 p.m. CST, Friday, Jan 29:

•Shreveport, La.: 1.69
•Oakdale, La.: 1.55
•Alexandria, La.: 1.5
•Greenville, Miss.: 1.58

On January 3oth, the national high precipitation was 2.06 inches at Ozark, AL.

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Saint Patrick's Day 2010 Weather Forecast


Great men have but a few hours to be "great." Like the rest of us they must dress, bathe, & eat. And, being human, they must make visits to the dentist, doctor, & barber & have conferences with their wives about domestic matters. What makes men great is their ability to decide what is important, & then focus their attention on that.--Anonymous

Do not be dazzled by the World's false judgments. The common soldier is often nobler than the general. ... Nor is it otherwise on the battlefield of life. There is a yet harder & higher heroism--to live well in the quiet routine of life; to fill a little space because God wills it; to go on cheerfully with a petty round of little duties, little vocations; to accept unmurmuringly a low position; to smile for the joys of others when the heart is aching; to banish all ambition, all pride, & all restlessness, in a single regard to our Saviour's Work. To do this for a lifetime is a greater effort, & he who does this is a greater hero than he who for one hour stems a breach, or for one day rushes onward undaunted in the flaming front of shot & shell. His works will follow him. He may not be a hero to the World, but he is one of God's heroes, & though the builders of Nineveh & Babylon be forgotten & unknown, his memory shall live & shall be blessed.--Fredric W.Farrar

Monday, February 08, 2010

Recent Forecast Results

The Weather Alternative long-range weather forecast for Super Bowl 2010 was posted on November 14, 2009. The forecast was based on the conjunction of Venus and Neptune, which was to be activated the day before the Super Bowl on Feb 6. The forecast called for the possibility of heavy rain over Miami and Florida, which at times can lead to flash flooding. The forecast was pretty close--just off by a day--as the rain heavy rains hit by 5th. The Weather Channel map at left is for February 5th.

It wasn't until February 2nd that conventional forecasters began to see the potential for heavy rain over the Miami area on the 5th and 6th.


The Christmas and New Year's forecasts posted on The Weather Alternative on November 7, 2009 were very successful. We don't have time to go through all of them but here are the most important.

The Weather Alternative forecast for December 20-22 for the East Coast and New England called for a heavy precipitation (which I thought would be rain but most of it was snow) from North Carolina through New England. A low pressure area over North Carolina became a Nor'easter that lashed the forecast area with with wind rain and snow. The Accuweather Map at right shows the low pressure area.

The Weather Alternative forecast for December 24-26 warned that a strong winter storm would cover the area from Michigan to Florida creating major travel problems and airport delays. Special intensity was expected over the Southeast U.S.

The Weather Channel map at left is for December 25th. During this period, a record-setting blizzard hit the northern Plains and moved eastward across the forecast area. The Southeast was hit by flooding downpours, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Strong winds,snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain hit the Midwest.

The Weather Alternative forecast for Dec 20-22 also called for an energetic front to hit the West Coast. The Weather Channel map at right is for December 21st. The Weather Channel reported on the 22nd that a potent winter storm is bringing areas of heavy snow to the West today.


The Weather Alternative forecast for Europe called for a cold, dry air mass to descend over the United Kingdom between December 22-23. The Accuweather map at left shows the cold forecast for the 23rd.

The Weather Alternative also forecast that a powerful storm system would batter France, Germany, and the surrounding countries on December 24th and 25th. On the 24th, The Weather Underground reported "A strong low pressure system will continue moving eastward from central Europe and extend into eastern Europe. This will spread scattered showers over most of Europe, with snow anticipated at higher elevations. The strongest region of the system will move through Spain and into eastern France and Switzerland by evening. These areas will see periods of heavy rainfall with periods of heavy snow at high elevations of the Alps."

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Saint Patrick's Day 2010 Weather Forecast


The talent of success is nothing more than doing what you can do well, and doing well whatever you do without thought of fame. If it comes at all it will come because it is deserved, not because it is sought after. --Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

The heights by great men reached & kept
Were not attained by sudden flight,
But they, when their companions slept,
Were toiling upward in the night.
--Henry Wadsworth Longfellow