Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Forecast Results for the Solar Eclipse of Nov. 13, 2012

Here are the results of the weather forecasts for the Solar Eclipse of Nov. 13, 2012. These were posted on June 10th, 2012. The solar eclipse affected a number of places due to the placement of the Sun, Moon, Mercury, and Neptune. Severe weather was expected over these locations roughly between Nov 12-15.

The first location was located around 133 west longitude and 41 north latitude, which lies off the West Coast of the United States. The forecast suggested a powerful low pressure area would develop there and affect the U.S. West Coast. The Weather Channel map below for the 16th shows a low pressure area headed toward California and the Pacific Northwest.
Nov 16
On the 15th, the Weather Channel headline stated " Rain and Snow Bombard the West Coast." On the 16th, the  headline read " Storm Parade Rolls on for the West Coast."

The next area was in the western Atlantic around 53 west longitude and 23 north latitude. I expected tropical storm or hurricane formation around there. Nothing very impressive resulted. The National Weather Service reported the following on the 13th:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 56W-70W. THIS LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE PROCESS

Another important area was found over the eastern Europe. I expected heavy downpours there. The big news between the 13th and 15th was the flooding in Italy, which is a bit farther west but still "in the zone" as it were. The map below is an aerial view of Orte near Rome.
Italy Floods
On the 16th, outbreaks of rain occurred across the Baltic States in Russia.

The next area in the forecast was Korea. Here, I expected a tropical system or powerful low pressure area. I don't have much in the way of weather records for the area but the map below is for the 12th. Low pressure moving through Japan and Korea brought showers and colder weather according to one weather source.
12 Korea
The last area mentioned in the forecast was Brazil and Uruguay. I didn't come across anything major for this time period. Below, is the weather map for the 15th which shows at least some storminess over Brazil.
15 Brazil 2 Testing Astrometeorology Part 2
Hurricane Sandy Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!
Testing Astrometeorology Part 1
Fall Weather 2012: Eastern U.S.
Fall Weather 2012: New England
Fall Weather 2012: Central U.S.
Fall Weather 2012: The U.S. West Coast
Mars Conjunct Saturn August 15, 2012
Jupiter-Neptune and Heavy Rain
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse Part 2
Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast Results
Hurricane Risk-Management
New Weather Alternative Website
Overview of UK Winter 2012-13
The Winters of 2011-14
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

October 21-November 11, 2012 Fall Forecast Results

This is the next installment of some recent long-range weather forecast results. These forecasts were made back in August and September of this year. In the August 18th post for the Central U.S., the following forecast was made:

Forecast
October 21-25, 2012
Cooler and stormy around the 21st. The Sun's parallel and trine to Neptune around the 23rd should increase southerly air flow and temperatures with perhaps mild or foggy conditions. Then, on the 25th when the Sun conjoins Saturn, things turn stormier most likely due to a cold front.

Results
The general idea of the forecast-- cooler and stormy conditions preceded by a southerly air flow bringing rising temperatures--was fulfilled. Here's a quote from The Weather Channel posted on October 21st.

"A boundary between mild air streaming northward through the Midwest and Ohio Valley and cooler air lurking over the Upper Midwest and northern Plains will be the battleground for some showers and storms on Monday (Oct 22)."

Then on the 23rd, The Weather Channel reported that a strong cold front was then poised to move through the region on the 24th through the 27th. Behind the front temperatures tumbled 20 to 40 degrees.

The Weather Channel map below is for the 24th and shows the cold front and stormy conditions.
Oct 24
The next forecast was also for the Plains and Mississippi Valley area.

Forecast
November 1-2, 2012
Saturn now moves closer to the Mississippi Valley and receives an adverse aspect from Mars. This should result in atmospheric disturbance over the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley.

Results
This forecast found its fulfillment in a quick moving disturbance that brought some rain showers from Missouri to Ohio on November 3rd. Some light snow and wintry precipitation also was experienced across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

The following Weather Channel map is for November 1st and shows a low pressure over Missouri.


Nov 01
The next forecast was for the West Coast and was issued on August 15, 2012.

 Forecast
November 1-3, 2012
A front or storm systems enters the area.

Results
Western Washington and northwest Oregon experienced some rain showers on November 2nd and 3rd. The Weather Channel map below is for the 2nd and shows the front entering the West Coast.
Nov 02
The next forecast appeared in the same post.

Forecast
November 4-6, 2012
Southerly winds bring increasing temperatures.

Results
Temperatures did increase but not exactly because of southerly winds. In this case the winds were northwest winds which brought warm, dry air to the West Coast. Accuweather headlines for Nov. 3rd stated Record-Breaking Heat Returing to Southern California. They also pointed out that very warm temperatures would persist until the 6th. The Accuweather map below shows the warm up.

03 California
The last forecast was for the eastern U.S., posted on September 9th.

Forecast
November 9-11, 2012
The transit Sun triggers Venus and Mars which is known to increase temperatures but also carries the potential for storminess throughout the eastern section of the U.S.

Results
The warmth described in the forecast materialized over the eastern U.S. on the weekend of the 10th and 11th. The Weather Channel reported that temps were from near average to 18 degrees above average. There was also showery rain from central and western Upstate New York to Virginia preceded by gusty southerly winds on the 11th.

Testing Astrometeorology Part 2
Hurricane Sandy Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!
Testing Astrometeorology Part 1
Fall Weather 2012: Eastern U.S.
Fall Weather 2012: New England
Fall Weather 2012: Central U.S.
Fall Weather 2012: The U.S. West Coast
Mars Conjunct Saturn August 15, 2012
Jupiter-Neptune and Heavy Rain
The Solar Eclipse of November 13, 2012
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse Part 2
Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast Results
Hurricane Risk-Management
New Weather Alternative Website
Overview of UK Winter 2012-13
The Winters of 2011-14
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative

Monday, November 05, 2012

Testing Astrometeorology Part 2


In Testing Astrometeorology Part 1, I looked at the effect that Sun-Saturn oppositions are reported to have on weather systems. In this test of astrometeorology, I want to see if the system of long-range weather forecasting based on planetary cycles that has been handed down to us over the centuries is reliable. There are basically three components that make up the system. When taken together, they should provide us with the following information: what kind of weather we should expect, when we should expect it, and where we should expect it.

The “what” is determined by the natures of the planets involved. In the case of the Sun-Saturn opposition, tradition tells us cold, stormy periods delivering rain, snow, hail, etc., depending on the season in question, are to be expected. The “when” is shown by the dates on which the aspect takes place. This can be found by consulting an ephemeris that lists the date and time of planetary aspects. The “where” can be determined by erecting key astrological charts that show where the planets in question fall across the earth’s surface. In Part 1, I used the Cardinal Solar Ingress chart for this purpose since this is the main chart for the season in question.

In this post, I’ll look at some Sun-Saturn conjunctions using the same criteria. Let’s see if the what, when, and where can be reliably determined by this method. If so, then astrometeorology should be a dependable tool for making long-range weather forecasts since we can know when and where these aspects will take place months and years before they do.

According to G. J. McCormack, the 20th Century’s most able long-range weather forecaster, the Sun-Saturn conjunction is similar in effect to the Sun-Saturn opposition. In all seasons, McCormack states that the conjunction brings low pressure areas with heavy precipitation, cold, and easterly winds. The one exception McCormack mentions is Saturn’s transit through the zodiacal sign Leo, which brings hot weather since Saturn “concentrates the influence of the sign in which it may be posited at any time.” Since Leo is a hot, dry sign, Saturn here brings hot, dry weather. Then, when the Sun conjoins Saturn in Leo, the heat wave is broken. Let’s look at some recent Sun-Saturn conjunctions and see how they fair.
June 24, 2003

As seen below, the Solar Ingress map for the summer of 2003 placed the Sun-Saturn conjunction over 104 west longitude. We should expect to see its effects over the Rockies and Plains.


June 24, 2003

The Weather Channel map below is for June 24, 2003. We can see a low pressure system over the exact area mentioned above with rain affecting the Rockies and a stationary front across the Northern Plains.

June 24 of 2003
On the 23rd, The Weather Channel reported “Scattered severe storms and isolated tornadoes will do a substantial amount of saber rattling from southeastern Wyoming into the Upper Midwest, especially across eastern South Dakota, much of Nebraska, southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Locally heavy downpours will deluge pretty much the same areas, too, especially during the overnight hours both tonight and tomorrow as scattered storms cluster into unruly gangs.”


The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin for the week of June 22-28, 2003 reported that cool weather in Montana, the Dakotas, and western Nebraska was a much as 10 degrees below normal. Widespread beneficial precipitation accompanied the lower temperatures in Wyoming and northern Utah. Between the 22nd and 25th, severe storms and more than 75 tornadoes erupted across the Plains and upper Midwest.
July 23, 2005

The Sun-Saturn conjunction took place over 68 west longitude which runs through eastern Maine.

July 23, 2005
The conjunction took place in Leo. As mentioned above, Saturn in this sign can bring heat. Saturn entered Leo on the 16th of July and the National Weather Service began issuing excessive heat watches for Delaware and Washington D.C. on the 17th. Heat continued to plague the Northeast and New England. The Sun-Saturn conjunction took place on the 23rd. Shortly thereafter, on the 26th the heat wave was broken. The Weather Channel reported that “after an extended period of hot and humid conditions, residents of the Northeast will finally get a break as a significant cold front slides through the region.”

July 23 of 2005
August 7, 2006

Aug 7, 2006
Saturn was also in Leo during this period. The first week of August brought record heat to the Northeast. The Sun’s conjunction with Saturn on the 7th broke the heat wave. Accuweather headlines for the 7th read “Cold Front Takes Aim on the Northeast” The front brought locally strong to severe storms. The following Weather Channel map for the 8th shows the cold front.

Aug 08 of 2006
September 3, 2008

Here we find the Sun-Saturn conjunction over 106 west longitude.

Sept 3, 2008
Temperatures were 5 to 20 degrees below average in Montana, Wyoming, eastern Idaho, northern Utah, and Colorado according to the Weather Channel’s September 4th report.

September 17, 2009

This next example is more than a Sun-Saturn conjunction and as such really does not fit in this series. At this time Saturn was in exact opposition to Uranus. So the Sun came along and conjoined Saturn as well as opposed Uranus. They were over the Mississippi Valley. This was a longer lasting influence due to the slower moving planets which lasted from the 17th through the 26th.

Sept 17, 2009
During this period a pesky, slow-moving low pressure area drenched the Southeast as can be seen in the Weather Channel map for the 17th. As much as 4 to 8 inches of rain fell from northeastern Texas to the central Appalachians. Between the 20th and 26th, severe flooding affected a broad area around northern Georgia. Four inches of rain fell for a second week from northern and central Mississippi eastward into the southern Appalachians.

Sept 17 of 2009

October 13, 2011

The Sun-Saturn conjunction appears over 119 west longitude.

Oct 13, 2011
Blazing heat baked the entire Southwest U.S. at this time. What stands out is Saturn’s association with an east wind. In this area of the country, an east wind does not import any moisture because it comes from the interior, dry desert areas of the Great Basin etc. At this time the normal onshore flow that keeps this area cool was replaced by an offshore flow or east wind bringing high heat.

Conclusion
By and large, the Sun-Saturn conjunction appears to live up to its reputation as a breeder of cold weather, low pressure areas, heavy precipitation, and east wind. Only in the last example was there no precipitation, but considering the time of year, and the geographical location, we can understand why. An east wind over New England blows off the sea and often brings a “backdoor cold front” with plenty of moisture. An east wind, however, over the desert Southwest has access to hot, dry air from desert regions.

Hurricane Sandy Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!
Testing Astrometeorology Part 1
Fall Weather 2012: Eastern U.S.
Fall Weather 2012: New England
Fall Weather 2012: Central U.S.
Fall Weather 2012: The U.S. West Coast
Mars Conjunct Saturn August 15, 2012
Jupiter-Neptune and Heavy Rain
The Solar Eclipse of November 13, 2012
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse Part 2
Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast Results
Hurricane Risk-Management
New Weather Alternative Website
Overview of UK Winter 2012-13
The Winters of 2011-14
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative

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