Saturday, April 15, 2006

Some History of Astro-Meteorology

Click here for May 2006 long-range weather forecasts.

The first known work on weather and the atmosphere was The Meteorologica by the Greek philosopher-scientist Aristotle (384 B.C. to 322 B.C.). His pupil, Theophrastus expanded this early treatise in two works “On Winds” and “On the Signs of Rain, Winds, Storms, and Fair Weather.”

These were the sole authorities on meteorology until scientific investigations began in the 17th Century. (Ptolemy’s Tetrabiblos, 152 A.D. quoted brief excerpts).

In 1686, Dr. J. Goad’s Astro-meteorologica, based on 39 years of his own astro-weather observations and correlations, was published in London. Until the end of the 19th Century this text was the leading authority on the subject. It includes a transcript of astronomer Johannes Kepler’s diary of astro-weather observations from June 28, 1617 to August 9, 1629. Here Kepler expounded some of his theories relating planetary phenomena to atmospheric changes. It is a matter of historical record that he attained recognition for his remarkably accurate long-range weather forecasting long before advancing his laws of planetary motion. Kepler’s “Mysterium Cosmographicum” is a fully documented record of his work from 1602 to 1629. Some scientists who have written disparagingly of the renowned Kepler’s interest in correlating planetary phenomena to terrestrial events have rendered a disservice to the progress of science.

Critically tested astro-weather forecasts during the last century, ventured for various parts of the world more than a year in advance, support and confirm Kepler’s theories. He discovered that additional magnetic angles of 30, 45, 135 and 150 degrees between celestial bodies synchronized perfectly with atmospheric reactions.

Commander R. J. Morrison of the Royal Navy, publisher of the world known Zadkiel’s Almanac more than a century ago, further refined his predecessors’ discoveries with a more modern scientific approach.

Morrison’s successor, Dr. Alfred J. Pearce (1840-1923), continued the Almanac from 1876 for forty years. He also published his “Weather Guide” in London during 186r, The Science of the Stars in 1881, and completed a magnum opus—his Textbook Vol. II in 1889. In this expanded work, Pearce evolved new techniques from his own observations with detailed instructions in the method. He cited case histories and voluminous data to support and rationalize the theory of astro-meteorology.

Observations of solar radiation and sunspots will never lead to the discovery of the laws which regulate the weather. The atmosphere is often liable to unusual and long continued impressions, and these are induced by planetary action on the earth as well as on the Sun. Based on many years of specialized experience with astro-meteorology, we are convinced that to abandon this research is to render the discovery of the laws which regulate the weather, hopeless.

G.J. McCormack

Saturday, April 08, 2006

May 2006 Long-Range Weather Forecasts

The two maps above show the “Three Month Outlook” for April, May and June 2006 from the Climate Prediction Center. They were prepared in March 2006. The map on the top shows the precipitation outlook, and the map on the bottom shows the temperature outlook.

On the precipitation map, the areas where precipitation may be above average are marked by an "A". The areas where precipitation is forecast to be below average are marked with a "B". The areas marked "EC" are areas where there are equal chances of it being above or below average, or according to their own definition "the probability of the most likely category cannot be determined." The same three A, B, and EC designations apply to the temperature map.

If we look at the Northeast U.S., we see that Climate Prediction Center could not determine what to forecast regarding temperature and precipitation. By following Kepler’s long-range forecast method, however, we can make some long-range predictions that give us much more information regarding what the Northeast might expect during this time period. Since this article would grow too long if we were to list all the information this method might provide, we shall limit our observations to a few of the more outstanding weather patterns that will affect the Northeast U.S. during the month of May. Kepler's method can provide us with three key pieces of information:
1) the time the weather pattern will manifest
2) the type of weather
3) the location

Forecasts for the Northeast U.S. and surruounding areas:

May 4-6, 2006: Fair and dry conditions with a lower range of temperatures are indicated for the area after a storm system hits around the 3rd.

May 6-8, 2006: The arrival of a colder air mass over the Northeast will result in precipitation.

May 10-12, 2006: Winds over the Northeast blow out of the south now elevating temperatures and bringing a chance of rain.

May 16-18, 2006: A cold front with its attendant cloudiness and precipitation will offer a break from relatively high temperatures.

May 22-23, 2006: Southerly winds will transport heat and humidity into the the Northeast and New England resulting in atmospheric disturbance.

May 26-27, 2006: A storm system headed for the Canadian Maritimes will drop rain and kick up windy conditions over the Northeast and New England.

May 30-June 1, 2006: Warmth makes its way through the eastern U.S. only to trigger stormy conditions from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Northeast. If not enough moisture is available to result in precipitation, wind will be the salient feature.