Saturday, April 11, 2015

March 2015 Forecast Results

Here are the results of The Weather Alternative forecasts for March 2015. The first forecast period for March 11-14 zeroed in on the U.S. East Coast. I expected similar weather to that of November 17, 2014 when a strong winter storm brought a low pressure area and frigid winds to the Northeast and New England as well as low pressure systems from the Carolinas northward.

Here are some of the weather headlines from that period. On the 13th, AccuWeather reported, "Northeast Storm to Raise Flooding Risk, Bring Wintry Travel." On the 14th, the National Weather Service warned, "Heavy Snow to Impact Northern New England." 

The flooding mentioned by AccuWeather was to affect the central Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic and create slippery travel and power outages in New England. The heavy snow to impact northern New England was due to a redeveloping low over the Gulf of Maine. 

The AccuWeather map below shows the system on the 14th with even some flooding for Long Island and southern New England. It was this storm that added two more inches of snow to the Boston total for the season making it snowiest season on record with a total of 108.6 inches. 

The next forecast was for the March 16-19 period. I thought windy conditions would affect California and stormy weather would hit the Pacific Northwest.

The National Weather Service reported on the 16th that unsettled weather would affect the Pacific Northwest. Then for the 18th they reported that a closed upper-level low will develop over Southern California and Northwestern Mexico a chance of thunderstorms resulting in brief heavy rains and small hail. A similar setup was reported for central California but no weather systems of major importance. 

For more information about long-range weather forecasting and forecast accuracy, see the links below.

Links to Other Long-range Weather Forecasts and Forecast Results

Tropical Cyclone Hadi
Hurricane Erick Fulfills Long-range Forecast
Tropical Storm Andrea Fulfills Long-range Forecast!
Timing the Relief for Drought-Stricken U.S. Plains
Testing Astrometeorology Part 2
Hurricane Sandy Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!
Testing Astrometeorology Part 1
Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast Results
Hurricane Risk-Management
New Weather Alternative Website
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative

2015 was the Coldest January through March in the Entire Record in the 10 Northeast States and DC (read the article)