Friday, August 27, 2010

Hurricane Strike Zones for Sept 3rd

The Atlantic Basin has livened up over the last day or so and forecasters are now concerned that Tropical Storm Earl might make it to the Atlantic Seaboard by late next week. My September Hurricane Forecast posted on April 24, 2010 pinpointed the Carolinas as a very likely area for hurricane landfall between Sept 2-5, 2010. This is within the time frame that forecasters are now talking about. Below is a map highlighting the areas that could be affected by tropical storm or hurricane conditions on those dates.
Untitled

As can be seen, I've also pinpointed the area in and around the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula as well. According to Johannes Kepler's astro-meteorological forecast system based on planetary cycles, these areas could be subject to tropical activity or at least some type of severe weather pattern.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Faith is one of the forces by which men live and the total absence of it means collapse.--William James
American psychologist and philosopher

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

August 2010 Forecast Results

These long-range forecasts were posted in April 2010.

Forecast
August 2-3, 2010
Intense storms are expected throughout the East Central, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. These storms may bring damaging winds, hail, or tornadoes. It is possible that a tropical system makes landfall over the Carolinas.

Results
images

Except for a few gusty thunderstorms with heavy downpours in the Southeast, the main intense weather during this period was from the heat.


Forecast
August 7-10, 2010
Venus will now activate the alignments between Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto. Since these are placed roughly between 79 and 81 west longitude, the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic areas are in for a round of severe weather. This may indicate tropical activity affecting the Florida Peninsula and the Carolinas. These planetary alignments also have the potential to affect Cuba and Panama.

Results
10 Tropical Gulf
The main weather event at this time was heavy rain over Florida on the 8th, 9th, and 10th. Above is the Accuweather map for the 10th when a non-tropical low pressure system spread 1 to 5 inches of rain south of a line from Daytona to Tampa.

Forecast
August 14-18, 2010
The eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley are likely to be under severe weather threats now. This could manifest as powerful storms producing large hail, gusty winds, and tornadoes. A tropical system or abundant tropical moisture may affect the eastern Texas and Louisiana area.

Further east, heavy rainfall is indicated for the Mid-Atlantic area either due to tropical moisture being introduced over the area or from an actual tropical system that enters through the Carolinas.

Resutls
16 Central Gulf Coast
The remnants of Tropical Depression 5 lingered over the central Gulf Coast during this forecast period and and brought heavy showers and drenching downpours fulfilling the long-range forecast.

This was also a rough period for the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Here are some Accuweather headlines that appeared during the forecast period.

Aug 14: More Rounds of Severe Weather Loom for the Midwest
Aug 16: Gusty Storms Loom for the Central Plains
Aug 17: Wichita, Oklahoma City Brace for Damaging Thunderstorms

The Mid-Atlantic was also hit as indicated in the forecast. Here are more Accuweather headlines.

Aug 18: Flooding Rain Threatening Washington, D.C., Today
Up to 2 inches of rain is expected across the mid-Atlantic into this evening.

Forecast
August 18-22, 2010
Planetary alignments at this time suggest very volatile atmospheric conditions that will put the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley at risk for severe weather. Dangerous thunderstorms and/or tornadoes are indicated in and around Missouri. This may be due to a tropical system that makes landfall over eastern Texas or Louisiana.

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are not out of harm’s way either. There are indications that suggest tropical storm or hurricane activity over the Carolinas at this time or at least some kind of severe weather system if not actually tropical in nature.

Results
Much of this forecast was covered in a recent post.
The Southeast was hit on the 19th. The Weather Channel headline read:

Heavy rain and flood threat for South
Showers and thunderstorms should fire up along and south of a stationary boundary that stretches from southern Virginia west-southwestward to central Texas.

The heaviest rain should fall across eastern Tennessee and North Carolina today. Average rainfall in those two states should be around an inch, but a few areas could pick up 2 to 3 inches.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Sure there are dishonest men in local government. But there are dishonest men in national government too.
Richard M. Nixon
37th president of US (1913 - 1994)

Sunday, August 22, 2010

August 19-21, 2010 Forecast Results

Four areas were highlighted in the August 19-21 forecast for severe weather.
Aug 19b
The first area was the eastern Texas/Louisiana area. I'd been expecting tropical activity there. The above map is for August 19th. The Weather Channel reported that eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi was picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain due to the prolonged stay of the remnants of Tropical Depression 5. On the 20th, torrential rains hit western Alabama.


Aug 21d
The next area mentioned in the forecast was the Bahamas/Southern Florida area. I expected tropical storm formation around this time. We were spared the tropical system but as can be seen from the Weather Channel map above for August 21st, strong thunderstorms developed over the area.

On the 20th the National Weather Service issued a Flood Advisory for the Miami-Dade county area as 2 to 3 inches of rain had fallen. A Significant Weather Advisory was issued for Broward county for frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 mph. Strong thunderstorms were also reported in Seminole and Volusia counties. Today, locally heavy downpours continue over Florida.

19 Northern Plains
The third area mentioned for severe weather was the Minnesota/Wisconsin area. The above Accuweather map is for August 19th. The northern Plains was hit by severe thunderstorms and on the 20th, severe storms threatened areas from Upper Peninsula of Michigan and Wisconsin southwestward through eastern and central Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

The fourth area mentioned was the U.S. Desert Southwest in and around Arizona. On the 19th, Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued for Utah as storm produced 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour. On the 21st, Flash Flood Warnings were issued for Arizona due to heavy rainfall. Nevada had Red Flag Warnings prompted by dry conditions and sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Did you hear about the 21 year old Italian girl who knelt in front of the statue of Madonna?
She said: "You who conceived without sin, let me sin without conceiving!"

Thursday, August 12, 2010

August 19-21, 2010 Experimental Forecast

Important planetary alignments form on the 20th and 21st of August. The accompanying map shows where the astro-meteorological influence is likely to manifest.
Aug 20
The Sun will oppose Neptune, and Venus will conjoin Mars on the 20th. These will be followed by Saturn's square to Pluto on the 21st. In previous posts, I've mentioned the likelihood of possible tropical systems or perhaps severe weather patterns to develop over the Louisiana and east Texas coasts at this time as well as the same potential for the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Further experimentation with some experimental forecast techniques confirm this but add a few extra bits of information. For example, these experimental models suggest that approximately between the 19th and 21st of August a strong low pressure system or tropical cyclone will form or be drawn to the area in and around the Bahamas and southern Florida. From there, it could travel northward to the Carolinas.

Another area to keep our eyes on at this time is the Wisconsin-Minnesota area, which stands a good chance of seeing some very strong thunderstorms and the usual accompanying hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

The U.S. desert Southwest also stands out in these models as an area that could see some strong monsoonal moisture causing storms and flash flooding. Stay informed with your local or national weather stations at this time for more specifics and stay safe.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

An atheist was walking through the woods.

"What majestic trees"!

"What powerful rivers"!

"What beautiful animals"!

He said to himself.

As he was walking alongside the river, he heard a rustling in the bushes behind him. He turned to look. He saw a 7-foot grizzly charge towards him. He ran as fast as he could up the path. He looked over his shoulder & saw that the bear was closing in on him.

He looked over his shoulder again, & the bear was even closer. He tripped & fell on the ground. He rolled over to pick himself up but saw that the bear was right On top of him, reaching for him with his left paw & raising his right paw to strike him. At that instant the Atheist cried out, "Oh my God!"

Time Stopped.
The bear froze.
The forest was still.

As a bright light shone upon the man, a voice came out of the sky. "You deny my existence for all these years, teach others I don't exist and even credit creation to cosmic accident." "Do you expect me to help you out of this predicament? Am I to count you as a believer"?

The atheist looked directly into the light, "It would be hypocritical of me to suddenly ask You to treat me as a Christian now, but perhaps You could make the BEAR a Christian"?

"Very Well," said the Voice.

The light went out. The sounds of the forest resumed. And the bear dropped his right paw, brought both paws together, bowed his head & spoke:

"Lord bless this food, which I am about to receive from thy bounty through Christ our Lord, Amen."

Thursday, August 05, 2010

August 2-6, 2010 Forecast Results

The Weather Alternative forecast for August 2-6, 2010 specified that the area in and around Nicaragua and Honduras would experience a severe weather pattern or a possible tropical storm or hurricane.
05 Tropics

On August 2nd, the Weather Channel reported a tropical wave moving ashore in Central America near Nicaragua that produced some locally heavy rainfall over Central America for the next day or two.


The National Weather Service map below is for today, August 6th. The yellow circle to the left is over Nicaragua and Honduras. This is represents a tropical wave that is bringing increased showers and thunderstorms over the region for the next couple of days but will most likely not develop into a tropical cyclone.
06 Tropics2


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Thought of the Day

“In the end, it’s not the years in your life that count. It’s the life in your years.”—Abraham Lincoln

He who every morning plans the transactions of the day and follows out that plan, carries a thread that will guide him through the labyrinth of the most busy life.—Victor Hugo

Tuesday, August 03, 2010

July 27-31, 2010 Forecast Results

The long-range forecast for July 27-31, 2010 warned of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes to affect the East Central U.S., Southeast and Mid-Atlantic with a possible tropical system over Florida.
27 Soaking South
The above Accuweather map for Juy 27 accompanied their forecast which called for soaking, locally severe storms to rattle the South. The storms were to cause travel disruptions, damage, and flash floods.


29 Big Storms Mid-Atlantic
The next Accuweather map is for July 29th. Its headline was Big Storms in the Mid-Atlantic and Plains. This brought isolated severe storms to parts of the mid-Atlantic.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Parents and Children

"The footsteps a child follows are most likely to be the ones his parents thought they covered up."

Sunday, August 01, 2010

July 23-26, 2010 Forecast Results

The long-range weather forecast for July 23-26, 2010 called for either a tropical system or a severe weather pattern to affect the area from the Carolinas through New Jersey.

On the 25th and 26th, a severe weather pattern developed over the region. The Accuweather map at left shows an area of damaging storms for the 25th of July.

Accuweather reported on the 25th that powerful thunderstorms will rumble from the Delmarva into Kentucky. Aided by daytime heating, southern Illinois and Kentucky into the Delmarva and southern New Jersey will be at risk for strong storms this afternoon.

The map at right is for the 26th. Accuweather reported Drenching Storms to Wipe Out Extreme Heat in Carolinas

A slow-moving cold front in the Southeast will be the focal point for drenching and locally severe storms this afternoon. The thunderstorms will help to wipe out the extreme and oppressive heat in the southern mid-Atlantic and much of the Carolinas.




Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


A Greek and an Italian

A Greek and Italian were sitting in a Starbuck's one day discussing who had the superior culture. Over triple lattes the Greek guy says, "Well, we have the Parthenon."

Arching his eyebrows, the Italian replies, "We have the Coliseum." The Greek retorts, "We Greeks gave birth to advanced mathematics."

The Italian, nodding agreement, says, "But we built the Roman Empire."

And so on and so on until the Greek comes up with what he thinks will end the discussion. With a flourish of finality he says, "We invented sex!"

The Italian replies, "That is true, but it was the Italians who introduced it to women!"

July 23-26, 2010 Forecast Results