Wednesday, December 27, 2006

January Blizzard?


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How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


January 12, 2007 will mark the 119th anniversary of the Children’s Blizzard. (see photo above) Also known as the Schoolhouse Blizzard or the Schoolchildren’s Blizzard, this powerful storm hit the U.S. Plains unexpectedly on January 12, 1888. Only those who lived close to telegraph offices or railroad stations received news of the approaching storm from the U.S. Signal Corps. Many people, however, were caught unaware. Children were trapped in one-room schoolhouses or met their fate trying to find their way back home. Farmers were caught without protection taking care of their livestock as were family members doing errands in town. It is estimated that 235 people died that day on the Dakota-Nebraska prairie—more than a hundred of them children.

The storm roared out of the northwest on a day mild enough for children to walk to school in their shirt-sleeves or without hats and jackets. Within just a few hours, temperatures dropped from around 70 degrees Fahrenheit to minus twenty or more accompanied by horizontal snow and hurricane-force winds.

The lives of surviving children, parents, farmers, and teachers were drastically altered. The new science of post-traumatic growth, to our surprise, finds that enduring such harrowing ordeals ultimately changes many people for the better. They are transformed by tribulation; giving credence to the old saying “What doesn’t kill you can actually make you stronger.”

Rich Tedeschi, a professor of psychology at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte, when talking about people that have survived traumatic experiences says, “People don’t say that what they went through was wonderful. They weren’t meaning to grow from it. They were just trying to survive. But in retrospect, what they gained was more than they anticipated.”

The astro-meteorology behind the Children’s Blizzard shows that on the 11th and 12th of January Mars conjoined Uranus as Mercury made a 90 degree angle to Mars and Uranus. Mars-Uranus contacts indicate acute, energetic, erratic action and provoke wind velocities of varying intensities. Mercury-Uranus is known to provoke falling temperatures and erratic gusts of wind. Mercury-Mars action indicates sudden brief spurts of whipping winds.

Solar and lunar eclipse charts frequently are the precursors of major weather phenomena. In the case of the Children’s Blizzard, the previous lunar eclipse boasted a Jupiter-Neptune opposition which correlates to low barometric pressure and above normal precipitation.

This January, roughly from the 27th through the 30th, shows that the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006 will be activated. The implications are that a powerful storm, perhaps a blizzard, will develop over the Plains and push eastward across the Mississippi Valley and toward the East Coast. I’m in no wise thinking that this storm will be anything like the Children’s Blizzard of 1888. The similarity resides in the fact that, in both cases, eclipse charts are involved. The planetary energies involved, however, are different. This January we will be dealing with a Mercury-Saturn opposition, a sure harbinger of a strong low pressure system.

Satellite view of the Blizzard of 1993

Friday, December 22, 2006

December 21, 2006 Forecast Results


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Some History of Astro-Meteorology

Included in my December 15th post was the following forecast:

If we zero in on the blue line running approximately over 113 west longitude through the Great Basin area , we should be able to time a couple of weather patterns that will develop there this winter. The blue line represents the planet Uranus. On the very day of the winter solstice, Mars will form a 90 degree angle to Uranus. The atmosphere should respond with an energetic winter storm over this area. Wind is usually a salient feature with this planetary combination. We usually give a day or so on either side of the exact date.

Looking a day or so before the 21st, we find the following Accuweather report on the 19th:

Potent Winter Storm Taking Shape (State College, PA) - A powerful storm will slowly emerge out of the Desert Southwest through Wednesday (20th), with heavy blowing snow over the eastern Rockies today and treacherous ice coating the southern Plains...The radar from Amarillo, Tex., indicates freezing rain is falling this morning as the potent storm spins over Arizona.

Dec 20th- Accuweather

Before emerging out of the Rockies, the storm on Tuesday (19th) brought a variety of precipitation to the Four Corners region and southern Plains. Snow fell in Las Vegas, Nev., and schools were closed in Albuquerque, NM.

Dec 20th- The Weather Channel

In the Pacific Northwest, another storm system is coming ashore today bring valley rain/mountain snow and wind to the Cascades today through Thursday (21st).

This second system will dive southeastward over the next several days bringing more wide spread wind/mountain snow/valley rain in the Northwest on Thursday, the Intermountain West by Friday, and to the Four Corners and southern Rockies by Saturday.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Wind advisories are in effect over the forecast area. Below are a few examples.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV

320 PM PST THU DEC 21 2006

...SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

____________________________________________________________________

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT

844 PM MST THU DEC 21 2006

FRIDAY EVENING WILL BRING A WINDY PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST UTAH…

___________________________________________________________________

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

351 PM PST THU DEC 21 2006

...HIGH WIND WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

Friday, December 15, 2006

Signs of the Sky--How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


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Some History of Astro-Meteorology

For those of you who are visiting The Weather Alternative after reading Accuweather meteorologist Katrina Voss's blog on Signs of the Sky, I thought I'd explain a bit more of the methodology used by ancient and present-day astro-meteorologists in formulating long-range weather forecasts based on planetary positions.

The basic premise of this branch of mundane astrology, which early researchers formulated by observation, is that the planets affect the meteorological process with each planet in particular governing a different aspect of the weather spectrum.

For example, Mercury was observed to be instrumental in governing wind direction and velocity. Venus, on the other hand, corresponded to a warm, moist influence tending to lower the barometer. Each of the other planets was also believed to correspond to different weather phenomena.

When two or more planets form certain geometrical patterns as seen from earth, astro-meteorologists observe that the atmosphere responds with a weather system that blends the nature of planets involved. These geometrical patterns are measured as angles that two or more planets make with earth as the center. Key angles are 0 degrees, 60 degrees, 90 degrees, 120 degrees, and 180 degrees.

The equinoxes and solstices provide key information in this respect since planetary positions at these moments show the geographic locales where high and low pressure systems originate or their effects are most potent.

The map of the United States above shows the planetary positions at the moment of the upcoming winter solstice on December 21, 2006. The lines on the map correspond to the positions of some of the planets at that moment. The curved black lines show where certain planets will be setting at the time of the winter solstice. The straight blue lines show were certain planets will be overhead, and the straight yellow lines show where other planets will be exactly underneath the earth.

If we zero in on the blue line running approximately over 113 west longitude through the Great Basin area , we should be able to time a couple of weather patterns that will develop there this winter. The blue line represents the planet Uranus. On the very day of the winter solstice, Mars will form a 90 degree angle to Uranus. The atmosphere should respond with an energetic winter storm over this area. Wind is usually a salient feature with this planetary combination. We usually give a day or so on either side of the exact date.

January 15-17, 2007 looks like another key time for this area of the country as Jupiter will form a 90 degree aspect to Uranus on the 16th. These two are conducive to intense cold fronts, precipitation, and high wind velocities. So we may expect a strong weather system to be drawn into the area at this time.

Having worked with this system for a number of years, I never cease to be amazed at the beauty and the “down-to-earth” practicality that its designer bestowed upon the heavenly bodies. The members of our solar system no longer appear to be unrelated and meaningless masses of rock and gas circling the sun as science sometimes leaves us
feeling. But God has given purpose to the planets and equipped his offspring with a built-in, environmentally safe, long-range weather forecasting tool for our service.

Long-range weather forecasting is more than just observing planetary positions and their effects on our atmosphere. In the words of Johannes Kepler, a man of science, astrology, and astro-meteorology, it’s “thinking God’s thoughts after him.”

Monday, December 11, 2006

December 9-11, 2006 Forecast Results


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On November 30th, I posted the following forecast:

The next alignment between Mercury and Mars takes place on December 9, 2006. The atmosphere should once again respond with gusty winds and storms roughly from the 9th to the 11th. This time a few areas of the country should feel this influence. Windy conditions should push ashore over the West Coast and advance toward the Rockies. The Plains area should respond with gusty winds as should the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Here's a recap of what happened. (Bold is mine)

West Coast

Dec 8, 2006- The Weather Channel

A third and much more potent Pacific system will be heading into the West Sunday (10th). Western Oregon and northwest California will experience strong gusty winds ahead of this third system.

Rockies

Dec 11, 2006- National Weather Service

PUEBLO CO 1011 AM MST MON DEC 11 2006

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO35 MPH...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

GREAT FALLS MT1201 PM MST MON DEC 11 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE CUT BANKAREA...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPOVER THE ROCKIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...

Plains

Dec 8, 2006- The Weather Channel

Midwest
The Midwest will enjoy a dry and much milder weekend with increasingly gusty southwest to west winds from Kansas to the Great Lakes.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Dec 8, 2006- The Weather Channel

As the lake snow and gusty winds end in the Northeast, cold will continue to grip the East overnight.

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Windy Weather Coming!


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Our sun and its celestial entourage constitute an amazing piece of machinery whose order and unfailing precision certainly make one think of intelligent design over random stellar evolution.

As far back as Genesis chapter 1, the sun, moon, and stars were given the role of a celestial timepiece to be for signs, seasons, days, and years. In other words, they have a practical function other than inspiring awe in humankind. The practical purpose of the sun and moon are well known. God obviously intended the sun to provide us with the heat, light, and food necessary to sustain life on earth in addition to providing those beautiful sunsets. Beside inspiring lovers to stroll beneath its silvery beams, the moon, of course, controls the ocean’s tides as well as regulating the rhythms of certain life forms.

Now it would stand to reason that the other heavenly bodies of our solar system have some practical function as well. Many brilliant minds throughout history have equated terrestrial weather patterns with celestial phenomena. Johannes Kepler, the 17th century astronomer and discoverer of the planetary laws of motion, first achieved fame due to his long-range weather forecasts based on planetary positions. Since planetary phenomena can be calculated years in advance, their effect on weather patterns can be known long before conventional meteorological forecasts can detect them if we follow Kepler’s method.

For centuries the planet Mercury has been equated with wind direction and velocity. When aligned with Mars, storms and whipping winds ensue. One of the last alignments between Mercury and Mars occurred on September 15, 2006. Based on this configuration, I prepared a forecast in December 2005 that was published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope calling for windy and stormy conditions over the Mississippi Valley. The result was strong gusty winds over the area. (Click here to see forecast results)

The next alignment between Mercury and Mars takes place on December 9, 2006. The atmosphere should once again respond with gusty winds and storms roughly from the 9th to the 11th. This time a few areas of the country should feel this influence. Windy conditions should push ashore over the West Coast and advance toward the Rockies. The Plains area should respond with gusty winds as should the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

It never ceases to amaze me how the Creator included in his handiwork a built-in and environmentally safe weather forecast system for our benefit. Good thinking!

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Severe Weather for the Plains


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In fulfillment of my long-range weather forecast that appeared in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope (see forecast), the Plains are rockin' and reelin' as a powerful cold front slides eastward through Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, Illinois, and Missouri.

The forecast called for severe weather over Missouri and Iowa. Today the Weather Channel confirms this, "Cloudbursts and thunderstorms, some severe (at least in Illinois and Missouri), will accompany the front."


The forecast also called for more weather woes for the West Coast. Accuweather reported the following yesterday:

Arctic Blast Follows the Snow and Rain
Arctic air that had been bottled up across Alaska and Canada's Yukon Territory pressed into Washington and Oregon Sunday and will continue to grip the Northwest through Wednesday before following the storm system to the east.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

November 28-30, 2006

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Here's a forecast of mine that was published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope:

Nov. 28-30, 2006:

This period boasts a double whammy as Mercury squares Neptune, and Mars squares Saturn. Atmospheric disturbances will develop over the Plains as warm, moist air collides with its cold, dry counterpart. An outbreak of deadly weather is indicated over Missouri and Iowa. More weather woes are also in store for the West Coast States. Additional tropical moisture is pumped into the area and should ignite storms producing flash floods.

Friday, October 27, 2006

Drenching Rains in India


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Drenching rains along India's east coast confirm The Weather Alternative's long-range forecast for October 22-25. This forecast was prepared in January 2006 and published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Horoscope. The forecast was a follows:

Oct. 22-25:
The potential for major tropical activity is also shown for the eastern coast of India.

Yesterday Accuweather reported:

International Weather News Center World Weather Summary
Posted: 26-OCT-2006 11:24am EDT


Downpours drenched the eastern shores of southern India Wednesday to Thursday. Among observation sites, Chennai (Madras) was wettest with 5.63 inches of rain within 24 hours ending Thursday morning, local time; this is more than half of the average rainfall for all of October.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Colorado Blizzard

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The Weather Alternative Forecast for Oct 25-27 posted at the end of September is certainly shaping up.


Oct 25-27:
A vigorous low pressure system will trek across the Rockies generating strong storms.


Here's what Accuweather has to say:

Snowstorm Impact
Updated: Wednesday, October 25, 2006 3:01 PM
This will be remembered as a big storm. The heaviest snow will fall in the Colorado Rockies and along the Front Range. Snowfall totals will exceed a foot in the south-central part of the state. In Denver, AccuWeather.com expects up to 8 inches. Storm development will be explosive later Wednesday night as air masses clash. The intensifying swirl of air will cause winds to reach 40 miles or more resulting in blowing snow and blizzard conditions. The only thing missing will be extremely low temperatures, which is a trait of a true blizzard. The storm will close roads, cause airport delays and bring down power lines. The snow from this storm will not expand across the Great Plains due to a lack of cold air. There it will just rain.

Monday, October 23, 2006

Coast to Coast

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A number of forecasts were posted at the end of September for October 22-25. Here's a run down on their accuracy.

Forecasts Posted at the end of September

Oct. 22-25:

A new wave of inclement weather reaches the West Coast States. The period climaxes with the potential for tempestuous, widespread storms and heavy downfall.

The Plains should respond with an outbreak of severe weather, which may include possible tropical storm implications along the southwest coast of Texas.

The potential for major tropical activity is also shown for the eastern coast of India.

The eastern U.S. should be dealing with its own weather anomalies as temperatures skyrocket. The atmosphere may try and equalize the situation by unleashing strong storms over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. A tropical system cannot be ruled out.

Another Hurricane Hot Spot may develop off the eastern coast of Nicaragua threatening Central America, while the island of Jamaica is in for severe weather as well.


West Coast

The Weather Channel today reports " Two separate systems will hurl showers into the West tomorrow; one into the Pacific Northwest, the other into the Southwest." That looks good for my forecast above.

Plains






Accuweather is forecasting a storm for the Plains starting on Wed. Oct 24th, which would fall within dates for my forecast.







The next Accuweather graphic is interesting since my forecast calls for "possible tropical storm implications along the southwest coast of Texas."



Accuweather says "Moisture from Hurricane Paul will come up into Mexico, then turn eastward into Texas this week. This, combined with a storm taking shape across the central states, could mean another heavy rain event for southeastern Texas and Louisiana..."







India

Nothing reported as of yet.

Eastern U.S.

Yesterday Accuweather reported that "Rain is moving eastward today across the Great Lakes as a storm system over Lower Michigan this morning heads northeastward into southern Ontario. This system will spread rain eastward by this evening into western New England, upstate New York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia."

Central America

No tropical trouble has been reported over Central America.

Today the National Weather Service reported "WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM GUATEMALA TO NRN COSTA RICA..."

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

New Western Storm and Eastern Rain

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The Weather Alternative long-range forecast for October 19-21 called for Showers and storms hit the Northeast down through Virginia, the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina with falling temperatures and a new round of storms for the West Coast.

Here's the latest from Accuweather:


By Friday (20th), the cold front will reach the East Coast as chilly air continues to spread in from the west. The front and an area of low pressure along it will bring rain from New England southward along the mid-Atlantic coast, while thunderstorms will rumble across the eastern Carolinas.





Wet weather will break out across the Northwest over the next couple of days as a storm arrives from the Pacific. A moist and mild flow into Washington and Oregon will mean snow levels in the Cascades will stay rather high; mainly above pass level.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Rockies Storm and Texas Trouble

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Forecasters are just now becoming aware of the storm potential developing over the Rockies and Plains. The Weather Alternative forecast (see below), crafted last December and January and published in the July issue of Dell Horoscope, pinpointed the developing weather systems months ago.

Oct 15-18, 2006
Abundant moisture is also drawn up over the Plains creating severe weather potential along the Front Range of the Rockies.

Accuweather reports the following:


Another system - an upper-level low, will move across Arizona today spreading plenty of moisture northeastward into New Mexico and the western half of Texas. This will lead to thunderstorms as well across this area. Given
the proximity of the upper-level low and its associated cold pool of air aloft, stronger thunderstorms in this area will have the risk for hail in them.



The Next Cold Shot
One nice thing about fall is it is a season in
transition. If you don't like the weather at one point, give it time, and it will change. That will happen the middle of this week across the northern Rockies and much of the Midwest as the next shot of cold air is released. This air mass will not be quite as cold as its predecessor, but will still be cold enough to drop temperatures back downwards significantly and also set the stage for another winter storm from Montana to the Colorado Rockies and into the Dakotas and western Nebraska, come Tuesday (17th) and Wednesday (18th).

Friday, October 13, 2006

Coming Changes for East and West Coasts

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The weather patterns contained in forecasts prepared back in December 2005 and posted here in September 2006 are beginning to become evident to conventional meteorologist. These call for good sized storms over the Mid-Atlantic region and a moisture-laden air mass over California. (See forecast below)
The wet weather in California starting today is a bit earlier than I predicted. The approaching storms over the Mid-Atlantic will arrive as forecast.

Forecast

Oct. 15-18:
The general weather pattern over California begins to change now as a warmer more moisture-laden air mass enters the region. This may result in tropical moisture being funneled into the area setting off heavy showers. Fog may also be a concern now.
The Mid-Atlantic States will have to deal with what promises to be some good-sized storms of their own.

From Accuweather:
A storm system sitting just off the Southern California coastline will slide inland today, bringing showers and thunderstorms that have been dry for much of the summer. Today, locations such as Los Angeles and San Diego will be rather cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the area. While heavy rain is unlikely, the recent forest fires have left mountainsides exposed, and it will not take too much rain before mudslides will form. This storm system will continue to track inland, bringing rain into the Desert Southwest over the weekend.

While the Eastern Seaboard is dealing with chilly temperatures this Friday the 13th, wet weather is on the horizon. After mainly dry conditions persist through the weekend, a storm system currently moving into Southern California looks to overspread the mid-Atlantic states and Southeast with rain and thunderstorms next Tuesday(17th). Before arriving over these areas, moisture interacting with the system will allow the wet weather to first pour down on the South Central states on Sunday, then over the southern Mississippi and Tennessee valleys on Monday. With the rich moisture streaming overhead, be advised that some of the rain could fall heavily each of these days.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Stormy West and Rockies

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Scroll down to see more long-range forecast results

Here's another long-range forecast issued by The Weather Alternative at the end of September that's shaping up:

Oct 8-10:
A storm system moves in over the West Coast States and pushes toward the Rockies.


The Weather Channel reports today that:

Two disturbances will bring wet weather to a large part of the West on Monday. An upper low over western Arizona will pump moisture into the Four Corners region and across the Rocky Mountains.
As a result, look for showers and thunderstorms across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado.
Flood watches are in effect for portions of Utah and Colorado as some of the rain could be locally heavy.

Farther north, another disturbance will trigger snow across the Northern Rockies. Snow advisories and winter storm warnings are in effect for parts of Montana and Wyoming, and some mountain locations could see a foot of snow.

Weather graphic courtesy of Accuweather

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Coming Cold Wave

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Conventional meteorologists over the last few days have been warning us of a very powerful cold front that will push southward over the Plains and move toward the east. Here's the latest from Accuweather:
...a blast of cold air...will reach the Plains Wednesday (11th) of next week. A sharp cold front from northern Canada will bring temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal, and combined with a strong wind, a drastic change will be on the horizon. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of this cold front will pass through the Plains and into the east. Some locations will receive their first snow of the season behind this cold front as rain will change to snow across the northern Plains, northern Great Lakes, as well as the northern Rockies.
This cold blast will reach southward into the southern Plains and push eastward toward the Atlantic coastline.


This will be a direct fulfillment of The Weather Alternative's October 10-12, 2006 forecast posted at the end of September, which read:

Storms should rev up over the Plains and West Coast. After the 12th, falling temperatures and windy conditions are in store for the eastern U.S.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Coastal Storm Approaches

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The Weather Alternative forecast for October 5-7, 2006 was prepared in December 2005 and stated "Storms hit from coastal North Carolina and Virginia through the Northeast."

Today Accuweather confirms this long-range forecast.

Following summer's brief return, a coastal storm will batter the central Atlantic states as the workweek draws to a close. After causing showers and thunderstorms to rumble across the Northeast, a cold front will drop into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday (5th). Instead of making a quick passage through the region, an area of low pressure will slow down the front's southward progress. To complicate matters, a strong upper-level storm system will also dive into the region, allowing the low pressure to rapidly intensify as it moves off the North Carolina coast on Friday (6th). As the storm interacts with a strong area of high pressure to the north, the southeastern mid-Atlantic states and northeastern North Carolina will be pounded with heavy rain and high winds Friday into Friday night.

The Weather Alternative also issued some other forecasts for this same time period.

A tropical moisture is indicated over the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.

Jamaica's Meteorological Service issued the following statement today:

Thur..Tropical Wave passes over the island.

Fri..Surface to upper level trough over Bahamas and Cuba.

Sat..Surface to upper level trough over Bahamas and Cuba.

A storm system will advance into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, pushing showers and thunderstorms into those areas.

Accuweather reported today:

The West will also be wet, thanks to a slow moving upper-level low located off the coast of Northern California. As this low works closer to the coast tonight, colder air will be drawn south into California, lowering snow levels in the northern and central Sierra Mountains to 6,000 feet.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

October 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

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Scroll down and check out fulfilled long-range forecast.

Oct 4-6:
A cold front over the Mississippi Valley triggers storms that push eastward.

Oct 5-7:
Storms hit from coastal North Carolina and Virginia through the Northeast.
A tropical moisture is indicated over the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.
A storm system will advance into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, pushing showers and thunderstorms into those areas.

Oct 7-9:
Cold air funnels in over the Plains and pushes eastward triggering storms that eventually reach the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

Oct 8-10:
A storm system moves in over the West Coast States and pushes toward the Rockies.


Oct. 10-12:
Storms should rev up over the Plains and West Coast. After the 12th, falling temperatures and windy conditions are in store for the eastern U.S.

Oct 11-13:
Low pressure brings rain to the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica. Storms will affect the coastal area of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Oct. 15-18:
The general weather pattern over California begins to change now as a warmer more moisture-laden air mass enters the region. This may result in tropical moisture being funneled into the area setting off heavy showers. Fog may also be a concern now.
Abundant moisture is also drawn up over the Plains creating severe weather potential along the Front Range of the Rockies.
The Mid-Atlantic States will have to deal with what promises to be some good-sized storms of their own.

Oct 19-21:
Showers and storms hit the Northeast down through Virginia, the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, as well as the Bahamas, Cuba, and Jamaica.


Oct. 19-21:
Storms continue to kick out into the Plains as contrasting air masses feed low pressure systems. The West Coast gets a new round of storms while temperatures drop over the eastern U.S.

Oct. 22-25:
A new wave of inclement weather reaches the West Coast States. The period climaxes with the potential for tempestuous, widespread storms and heavy downfall. The Plains should respond with an outbreak of severe weather, which may include possible tropical storm implications along the southwest coast of Texas.
The potential for major tropical activity is also shown for the eastern coast of India.
The eastern U.S. should be dealing with its own weather anomalies as temperatures skyrocket. The atmosphere may try and equalize the situation by unleashing strong storms over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. A tropical system cannot be ruled out.
Another Hurricane Hot Spot may develop off the eastern coast of Nicaragua threatening Central America, while the island of Jamaica is in for severe weather as well.

Oct 25-27:
A vigorous low pressure system will trek across the Rockies generating strong storms.


Oct 28-30:
A low pressure system off the California coast will hurl wind and rain into California and Oregon. Major changes should be underway for the Plains as well. A whirling dervish of a storm center over northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will most likely usher in windy conditions. Tropical moisture from the Gulf will help ignite hefty storms over the Ark Latex region.
A Hurricane Hotspot forms in the Eastern Pacific at 94 West Longitude and 10 North Latitude or about 400 miles south of Oaxaca, Mexico.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Soaking Rain for the Northeast

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The Weather Alternative's long-range forecast (prepared in December 2005) for September 26-28 is shaping up just fine. The forecast called for The potential for heavy rainfall is shown over the eastern US from the eastern Great Lakes southward to Virginia.

Here's the latest from Accuweather:

The front moving through the Great Lakes today will reach Pennsylvania and western New York by Thursday, bringing cloudy, damp weather and noticeably cooler air. The wettest weather in the coastal mid-Atlantic will come on Thursday night, and Friday looks like a washout for New England. To add insult to injury, the upper-level trough that is pushing this front along will be lifting up to the north, meaning the front will be slowing down. So, while places in the Great Lakes will just be having a quick spell of rain today, much of the Northeast will have a soaking rain for a longer period of time.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Strong Storms for Eastern US

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The strong storms affecting the US East Coast are a direct fulfillment of the following long-range weather forecast. This forecast was prepared in December 2005, published in the July 2006 edition of Dell Magazine and posted on this blog in August 2006.

Forecast

Sept. 24-26:
A blast of cold air will assault the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast generating gusty winds and slashing temperatures.

Today Accuweather published the following map and comment.


The storm system that has pounded the Midwest and Mississippi Valley with severe weather recently will sweep southward and eastward this afternoon, spreading the severe weather threat from Bangor, Maine, to Albany, Georgia, and into Brownsville, Texas. The AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Center is urging residents or visitors across these areas to keep an eye to the sky and check back to AccuWeather.com as any of these thunderstorms has the potential to produce damaging winds, heavy rain and hail. In addition, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

In addition to the above forecast, The Weather Alternative also forecast the following:

Sept. 23-25:
A tropical weather system may be brewing near the Dominican Republic and tropical moisture unloads over the Florida Panhandle.

Accuweather reports: A frontal boundary will stall across northern and central Florida through the middle of the week. Moist air will continue to spread up along the front from Monday to Wednesday, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall during the period will likely be from Gainesville to Orlando, Fla.





The National Weather Service published the following about the Dominican Republic:

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 20N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 10KT. BROADENING INVERTED-V SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 58W-64W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY TROUGH MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THOSE ISLANDS.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Large Storm for Central U.S.

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for the Introduction to The Weather Alternative

Conventional meteorologists, over the last couple of days, have realized that a potent storm system is taking shape over the Central U.S. This was forecast by The Weather Alternative back in December 2005 and posted this blog on August 24, 2006. The forecast is repeated below.

Forecast

Sept. 21-23:

The insurgence of warm, moist air over the Gulf Coast States from Texas to Florida will act as a potential storm breeder on its journey northward into the central U.S.


Graphic by Accuweather.com

Sept 21, 2006- The Weather Channel

A soaking inch-plus rain will extend from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will be ongoing or developing from the eastern sections of the central Plains, across the mid-Mississippi Valley, to the Ohio Valley. With a strong energetic jet stream from Kansas to Lower Michigan, warming temperatures and a plentiful return of moisture from the Gulf, severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will erupt over Iowa, Missouri and Illinois Friday. Winds will be strong and gusty over the northern Plains, Mississippi Valley, western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

September 16-17, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for the Introduction to The Weather Alternative

Forecast (prepared December 2005)

Sept. 16-17:
A potential tropical disturbance may get its act together over Cuba and Florida. A low pressure system will develop over the Front Range of the Rockies.

Results

A potential tropical disturbance may get its act together over Cuba and Florida.

Sept 16, 2006- Accuweather

A lingering frontal boundary across the southern peninsula of Florida will yield a few showers and thunderstorms, but at least there are no tropical systems to worry about.

A low pressure system will develop over the Front Range of the Rockies.


Sept 16, 2006- Accuweather

A strong storm system will dive into the northern Plains today setting the stage for a wide variety of weather… thunderstorms will become severe today with hail and even isolated tornadoes battering eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northward into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. This cold front will also lead to strong winds through the central Rockies today with gusts 45- to 65 mph. A few gusts past 70 mph could whip through canyons and gorges of the front range in Colorado and Wyoming.

Monday, September 18, 2006

September 14-16, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for the Introduction to The Weather Alternative

Most of these forecasts were prepared in December 2005.

Forecast

Sept. 14-16:
Tropical activity is shown for the area in and around Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, a new cold front hits the West Coast States dropping temperatures and increasing moisture.The Mississippi Valley and eastward will be the focal point for windy and stormy conditions.

Results

Tropical activity is shown for the area in and around Puerto Rico. (66 West/18 North)

Sept 14, 2006- NWS

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N18N BETWEEN 63W-66W.

Meanwhile, a new cold front hits the West Coast States dropping temperatures and increasing moisture.

Sept 14, 2006- The Weather Channel
West

A significant upper level disturbance will move into the Northwest today, in the wake of a cold front that passed through yesterday. With this disturbance in the area, and much cooler air moving in, scattered showers will develop during the afternoon hours.

Sept 15, 2006- The Weather Channel
West
The unusually intense storm and early season cold snap will continue to work its way across the West this weekend on its way to engulf most of the nation.

The Mississippi Valley and eastward will be the focal point for windy and stormy conditions.

Sept 15, 2006- The Weather Channel
A giant early season storm with hints of the winter to come will take control of the north-central U.S. this weekend. A strong cold front will kick off this fast-forward to late fall as it plows eastward from the Plains to the Appalachians over the next 3 days.

Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will develop Saturday from the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and western Wisconsin to eastern Kansas and Missouri. Some severe thunderstorms will continue across Illinois and Missouri on Sunday. As the front reaches Michigan and the Ohio Valley Monday, the thunderstorms will shift eastward across the remainder of the Midwest.

While strong warm southerly winds have gusted in advance of the front, equally strong northerly and northwesterly winds will further enhance the cold over the Plains and Midwest once the front moves through.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

September 12-14 Forecast Results

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for the Introduction to The Weather Alternative

Forecast:

Most of these forecasts were prepared in December 2005.

Sept. 12-14:
Gusty winds hit the Plains, and storms affect the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England. These storms over the eastern U.S. should bring abundant moisture and cause flooding problems. The culprit may be a tropical system drawn up over North Carolina or Virginia.Moisture increases over the southern California area. A front triggers showers and storms over the Rockies.Heavy rain is indicated for the island of Hispañola, which may be due to some type of tropical system.

Results

Gusty winds hit the Plains...

Sept 14, 2006- The Weather Channel

Windy conditions will develop over the central and high Plains in response to a low pressure moving toward that area.

...and storms affect the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England. These storms over the eastern U.S. should bring abundant moisture and cause flooding problems. The culprit may be a tropical system drawn up over North Carolina or Virginia.

Sept 12, 2006- Accuweather

As this storm heads east, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front as it moves across Georgia late on Wednesday. That will enhance rainfall across the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia. The ground in this area remains saturated from heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Ernesto, and there is some concern that localized flooding could occur in this area Thursday.

Sept 14, 2006- The Weather Channel

Northeast
An area of low pressure will spread rain across the Middle Atlantic into the Northeastern States today, some of which could be heavy at times.

Moisture increases over the southern California area.


Sept 14, 2006- Accuweather

Along the coastline, a thickening marine layer will prolong the low clouds, fog and drizzle along the coastline of California.








A front triggers showers and storms over the Rockies.

Sept 14, 2006- National Weather Service

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING

..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 TO 10000 FEET.

Heavy rain is indicated for the island of Hispañola, which may be due to some type of tropical system.

Sept 14, 2006- Dominican Republic Weather Service

A tropical wave is located over the Mona Passage moving westward at 26 kph. A mid to upper level low is in the troposhpere over the island.







Saturday, September 09, 2006

Stormy West Coast and Plains

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Click here for the Introduction to The Weather Alternative

The Weather Alternative long-range forecast for Sept 8-9, 2006 called for a stormy period for the U.S. West Coast and Plains. These forecasts were prepared during December 2005.

The Plains
Here are the latest reports from Accuweather .com:

A storm system will take shape today across the west-central Plains and then head northeastward into Illinois by Monday. This storm will tap into moist Gulf of Mexico air, allowing for rain and thunderstorms to spread on eastward with it. In the area just south of the warm front and east of the cold front, enough instability will be around along with favorable jet steam energy to allow for a few storms to be locally severe with gusty winds and hail. The best threat for a severe storm today will be in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. By tomorrow, the threat will shift into central and eastern Kansas into Missouri, and by Monday into parts of southern Illinois.

The West Coast

Sept 8, 2006- Accuweather

The wildfire danger remains at a critical level in the Northwest interior. A cold front moving into the region will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidity. However, dry thunderstorms developing ahead of the front could spark more fires, and gusty winds associated with the cold front could help to spread existing fires.

A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere has been causing heavy rainfall the past couple of days over the Southwest and southern Rockies.

Thursday, August 31, 2006

More Fulfilled Hurricane Predictions

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Besides accurately predicting the time and place of Ernestos' landfall (click link), a close Weather Alternative forecast for hurricane activity over the Baja California is being fulfilled.
Hurricane John will begin to affect the Baja tomorrow. (These forecasts were prepared in December 2005)

The forecast read:

Aug. 28-30:

Tropical storm formation is possible over the central Baja Peninsula.

Today the Weather Channel reported:
After its close encounter with Mexico's southwest Pacific coast, John will then head towards the southern Baja Peninsula by Friday afternoon remaining as a Category 3 hurricane. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Southern Baja Peninsula from Las Pas southward on the East Coast and from Santa Fe Southward on the West Coast. This does include Cabo San Lucas. Reports are indicating that 10,000 people have been evacuated in and around the Los Cabos beach resort in preparation for John's arrival.




Hurricane Kristy is the fulfillment of another long-range forecast published in the July issue of Dell Magazine (not posted on this blog).

The forecast read:

August 30-Sept 1:
A Hurricane Hot Spot in the eastern Pacific is likely to develop near 119 West Longitude and 16 North Latitude...

The National Weather Service reported on August 30th:

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 115.1W AT 30/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 5 KT.

Monday, August 28, 2006

Ernesto Fulfills Long-Range Prediction


Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

The Weather Alternative Forecast for August 28-30, 2006 stated "Tropical troubles are still brewing over a broad area from western Cuba through western Florida and into Georgia and South Carolina." This forecast was prepared in December 2005 and posted on The Weather Alternative July 23, 2006.

Today Tropical Storm Ernesto is hitting southern Cuba. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of mainland South Florida.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

August 19-22, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Forecast for August 19-22, 2006

These forecasts were developed during the first two weeks of December 2005.

Aug. 19-22:

Several atmospheric ingredients will come together over the Southeastern States from the Big Bend of Florida into Georgia creating a threat of severe weather. The threat will extend into the Ohio Valley as well. It is possible that this signifies a tropical system or at least abundant tropical moisture that drops heavy rain over the Southeast.

Results

August 19, 2006- Accuweather

The cold front that triggered these storms is steadily moving east and showers and strong storms are expected later today across the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes.

August 19, 2006- Map by Accuweather











August 21, 2006- Accuweather

Drenching Southern Storms

(State College, PA) - The front that brought soaking rain to parts of the Northeast over the weekend is stalling in the South. AccuWeather.com is forecasting that showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week may lead to localized flooding problems.

August 16-18, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Forecast for August 16-18, 2006

These forecasts were developed during the first two weeks of December 2005.

Aug. 16-18:
A strong storm system is indicated over New England and the Canadian Maritimes as energy moving from the west interacts with a warm, moist air mass.

Results

Aug 19, 2006- Weather Channel (Storms arrived a day later than my forecast period)
Northeast

High pressure moving to the east will allow a storm system to approach from the west. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will spread across western New England and the Upper Ohio Valley today, along with the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two, as well as heavy downpours and localized flooding.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

September 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Most of these forecasts were prepared in December 2005.

August 30-Sept 1:
Look for increasing moisture over the southern California coast resulting in foggy conditions or rain.
Storms will be active over the Rockies.

Sept. 2-5:
A potential Hurricane Hot Spot is activated off the eastern coast of Mexico in the Gulf around the 2nd or 3rd. At the same time, a broad area encompassing the central Caribbean, Cuba, Florida, and the Carolinas may be the breeding grounds for more tropical activity.

Sept. 3-5:
Changes are also underway for the West Coast States and the Rockies. Look for lower temperatures and windy conditions there. The New England area should expect strong storms that head to the Canadian Maritimes.
A tropical disturbance may flare up over the Bahamas.

Sept. 5-7:
More moisture is drawn up over southern California resulting in an increased chance of showers and thunder storms.
The Rockies warm up as winds from the south increase temperatures and precipitation.
Texas and the Plains at this time will deal with unseasonable heat that cranks up the storm machine over the area.

Sept 6-8:
Tropical troubles may be brewing for the island of Hispañola and surrounding areas.
The US East Coast will attract a tropical flow over Virginia and northward through the eastern Great Lakes. If not an actual tropical system, strong storms will drop heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and bring windy conditions.

Sept. 8-9:
A stormy period continues for the U.S. West Coast and the Plains.

Sept. 12-14:
Gusty winds hit the Plains, and storms affect the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England. These storms over the eastern U.S. should bring abundant moisture and cause flooding problems. The culprit may be a tropical system drawn up over North Carolina or Virginia.
Moisture increases over the southern California area. A front triggers showers and storms over the Rockies.
Heavy rain is indicated for the island of Hispañola, which may be due to some type of tropical system.

Sept. 14-16:
Tropical activity is shown for the area in and around Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, a new cold front hits the West Coast States dropping temperatures and increasing moisture.
The Mississippi Valley and eastward will be the focal point for windy and stormy conditions.

Sept. 16-17:
A potential tropical disturbance may get its act together over Cuba and Florida. A low pressure system will develop over the Front Range of the Rockies.

Sept 19-21:
Storm potential is shown for the island of Hispañola and the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast.

Sept 20-22:
Heavy downpours are shown over the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba.

Sept. 21-23:
The U.S. West Coast shows severe weather in the form of extreme temperature changes and/or storms.

The insurgence of warm, moist air over the Gulf Coast States from Texas to Florida will act as a potential storm breeder on its journey northward into the central U.S.

Severe storms will break out over the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast.

Sept. 23-25:
A tropical weather system may be brewing near the Dominican Republic and tropical moisture unloads over the Florida Panhandle.

Sept. 24-26:
A blast of cold air will assault the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast generating gusty winds and slashing temperatures.
A new Hurricane Hot Spot emerges for the fall portion of the hurricane season off the coast of Africa. The formation of a significant tropical system is possible now along the African West Coast around 18 West Longitude and 18 North Latitude, which should move westward toward 31 West-16 North.
Another danger spot is shown along the eastern Central American coast of Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras.
Noteworthy weather events are in store for the U.S. West Coast bringing abnormally wet conditions. Such will be the case for coastal California especially around the 26th when an influx of tropical moisture is drawn northward over the State from southern regions. The western Plains carry the potential for excessive humidity and abnormal rainfall to dominate now and move eastward through the Mississippi Valley.

Sept 26-28:
The potential for heavy rainfall is shown over the eastern US from the eastern Great Lakes southward to Virginia. Storms are indicated for the Plains.

Sept. 28-30:
The Central Gulf of Mexico may spawn a tropical disturbance that is drawn up over the Mississippi-Alabama costal area and into the Deep South. If not an actual tropical system, at the least tropical moisture should be funneled into the area from the Gulf. Rain is indicated over the Florida Peninsula. Low pressure may form off the Baja sending moisture over southern California.

Sept. 29-Oct. 1:
A tropical system may be indicated between Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles now.

Monday, August 21, 2006

August 14-15, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were developed during the first two weeks of December 2005.

Forecast

Aug 14-15:
Meteorological mayhem breaks out over the Southeast U.S. through the Ohio Valley as atmospheric elements combine over the area. One scenario shows a tropical system approaching the west coast of Florida and pushing inland with soaking rains. Another model suggests strong storms with damaging winds and flooding.

Results

August 14, 2006- The Weather Channel

A few severe storms Ohio Valley Monday

A stalled front off the coast of northeast Florida may drift slightly southward into an area of lower wind shear aloft over the next day or two. This could provide the opportunity for a tropical or subtropical low pressure system to develop somewhere along the front in the vicinity of enhanced thunderstorms over the Gulf Stream.


August 16, 2006- The Weather Channel

A flare-up of heavy showers associated with a low pressure center about 125 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach, S. C., is being monitored closely. Air force reserve Hurricane Hunters are tasked to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. It's possible a tropical depression could form later today or tonight if the convection--the heavy showers--persists. Upper-level winds are light (minimal wind shear) and the disturbance is near the Gulf Stream (plenty of warm water).

Sunday, August 20, 2006

August 11-13, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

There forecasts were prepared during the first two weeks of December 2005.

Forecast

Aug. 11-13:
Gusty winds will prevail along the West Coast with storm potential further inland.

Results

August 11, 2006- Accuweather

Farther south, it will continue to be active across the Southwest, mainly in Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, as monsoonal moisture streaming into the area will spark the development of thunderstorms. Some storms will dump heavy rains that could create a threat of flash flooding.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 PM PDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE. WEAK 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN OREGON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PULLING SOME MODERATE NORTHERLIES DOWN THE SOUTH COAST. SHOULD AGAIN SEE BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES OF SOUTHWEST OREGON WITH MARGINAL HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
315 AM PDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW CHANGES NEEDED AFTER THE EVENING SHIFT
UPDATES. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THERMAL TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TO NEAR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE TODAY. WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE THERMAL TROUGH NOT FAR INLAND.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

August 9-12, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were prepared during the first two weeks of December 2005.

Forecast

Aug. 9-12:

A tropical system may get its act together over Cuba and the Bahamas. Tropical moisture from this system or elsewhere should be pulled up over the Florida Peninsula and the Carolinas. Severe storms will develop over the Ohio Valley as well. Another hot spot for hurricane development is shown off the eastern coast of Mexico in the western Gulf around 96 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude.

Results

A tropical system may get its act together over Cuba and the Bahamas. Tropical moisture from this system or elsewhere should be pulled up over the Florida Peninsula nad the Carolinas.

South Florida rain

9:25 a.m. ET 8/9/2006
Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

South
A tropical wave plus a weather system aloft combined to dump pockets of heavy rain on parts of southern Florida on Tuesday (8th) and more rain is likely into Wednesday (9th). Look for some localized flooding, especially on streets.


Tropical wave eyes Florida

5:55 a.m. ET 8/9/06
Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

A tropical wave over the Bahamas is interacting with an upper low near southern Florida may produce pockets of heavy rain for southern Florida.

August 11, 2006- The Weather Channel

One area to watch however will be off the eastern Carolinas where a front is expected to stall. While unlikely, stalled fronts in these areas can sometimes generate areas of low pressure.

Severe storms will develop over the Ohio Valley as well.

August 10, 2006- Accuweather

Before the drier air pushes into the Ohio Valley, a strong disturbance moving through the Plains and western Midwest states will spark another round of severe thunderstorms across these areas today…By Saturday (12th), the Ohio Valley will be rid of the storms…

Another Hurricane Hot Spot is shown off the eastern coast of Mexico in the western Gulf around 96 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude.

August 11, 2006- NWS

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE W GULF NEAR 25N95W COVERING
THE AREA W OF 86W…

August 11, 2006- Mexican Weather Bureau

Vaguada en el Golfo de México
Del 11 al 16 de agosto

El sistema se encuentra en el Norte del Golfo de México, avanzará hacia el Oeste y se espera que alcance la costa de Tamaulipas a partir del día 11. Entrará a tierra el día 12, originando una amplia zona de inestabilidad, misma que estará asociada a tiempo severo en el Noreste de México.

A rough translation of the above states that a low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move toward the West affecting the coast of Tamaulipas on the 11th. The low pressure system will then be over land on the 12th bringing an unstable air mass, which will be associated with severe weather in the northeast of Mexico.


Monday, August 07, 2006

August 6-7, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

This forecast was developed during the first two weeks of December 2005.

Forecast

Aug. 6-7:
The coastal areas from Virginia and North Carolina through New England are in for some severe weather in the form of storms producing wind and rain.

Results

August 6, 2006-Accuweather


The Northeast is primed for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday...Storms will produce heavy downpours, damaging winds and large hail, with an isolated tornado possible.

August 7, 2006- The Weather Channel

Northeast
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will gallop through the Northeast today in advance of a Canadian cold front. Gusty winds will prevail as the front approaches, and winds in some of the storms could be quite strong.

August 7, 2006- National Weather Service
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WAKEFIELD VA629 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WAKEFIELD VA851 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

ACCOMACK VA-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-NORTHAMPTON VA-851 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SHORE...

Thursday, August 03, 2006

July 31-August 2 Forecast Results

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were calculated between November 16, 2005 and November 28, 2005.

July 31-August 2 Forecast:
Tropical storm or hurricane development is now likely east of the Lesser Antilles. New England is also slated for more severe weather now.

Results (Bold text, mine)

Tropical storm of hurricane development is now likely east of the Lesser Antilles.

August 1, 2006:
By AccuWeather.com News Director Steve Penstone
(State College, PA) - As residents of Florida join millions of Americans trying to beat the searing heat, they are also keeping a wary eye on the third named tropical system of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Chris formed early this morning east of the Leeward Islands. As of 1 p.m. EDT, the storm was located approximately 65 miles east-northeast of Antigua, moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. Chris has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts.

New Enlgand is also slated for more severe weather now.

August 2, 2006- Accuweather

Drenching thunderstorms will be a concern again today across New England and from Michigan to the Central Plains States as a cold front slices into the sizzling air mass over the East.

The daytime heating also sparked outbreaks of severe weather in eastern Canada and New England. A powerful thunderstorm in Quebec last evening left one man dead and 400 thousand Hydro Quebec customers without power. Canada Press reports a motorist was killed by a falling tree branch as the storm ripped through Montreal. Winds gusted to close to 100 km/h (60 mph). The storms also tore through New England, downing trees in New Hampshire and Maine.

Sunday, July 30, 2006

July 27-30, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

Click here for July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were calculated between November 16, 2005 and November 28, 2005.

Forecast:

July 27-30: The inhabitants of the western coast of Mexico around the States of Chihuahua, Michoacan, Jalisco, and Nayarit should prepare for tropical storm development.
It seems the East Coast will be the focal point for severe weather as well. It may be a tropical system affecting the Carolinas and northward. The Upper Mississippi Valley also stands out in regards to strong winds.

Results

The inhabitants of the western coast of Mexico around the States of Chihuahua, Michoacan, Jalisco, and Nayarit should prepare for tropical storm development.

July 27, 2006- Mexican Weather Bureau
Áreas con potencial de tormentas (viento y fenómenos hidrometeorológicos de corta duración):

Intensas: Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayartit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Hidalgo, Tamaulipas y Veracruz.

Severe thunderstorms over a number of States including Chihuahua, Michoacan, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

July 28, 2006- Mexican Weather Bureau
Lluvias intensas se esperan en Sonora y Chihuahua.

Heavy rain over Sonora and Chihuahua.

It seems the East Coast will be the focal point for severe weather as well. It may be a tropical system affecting the Carolinas and northward.

July 28, 2006- Accuweather
Heavy drenching thunderstorms today will spread across the Ohio Valley and the Northeast.
This weekend, a tropical wave will near Florida from the Caribbean. This wave will make for a breezy day along the eastern coastline of Florida, but more noticeable will be the thunderstorms. Thunderstorms that do form will bring more than your typical rainfall to parts of the Southeast as extra moisture will be injected into the storms.

July 30, 2006- The Weather Channel
South

Deep moisture in place, combined with daytime heating, and a weak disturbance in the atmosphere, will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the southeast today. The best opportunities to see these showers and thunderstorms will exist across central and southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and Georgia, and the coastal Carolinas and Florida. Here the sea breeze will interact with boundaries left from storms yesterday to produce brief periods of heavy downpours and gusty winds with a few of the thunderstorms.

The Upper Mississippi Valley also stands out in regards to strong winds.

July 28, 2006- Accuweather
On Thursday, numerous thunderstorms ignited in the juicy air mass blanketing the eastern half of the nation. A frontal boundary across the southern Great Lakes enhanced the development of numerous storms with gusty winds, hail and drenching downpours. Strong thunderstorms knocked out power in the Chicagoland area and caused delays at O'Hare and Midway airports.


July 30, 2006- Accuweather





Before the heat spreads over the entire Great Lakes on Monday, the region will have to endure an active weather day, as a frontal boundary has triggered and will continue to trigger severe thunderstorms. As the hot air to the south interacts with the somewhat cooler air to the north, thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and torrential downpours will erupt.

Sunday, July 23, 2006

August 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were developed during the first two weeks of December 2005.

I’ve included the dates of the Moon’s maximum declination north and south of the equator as well as its equatorial crossing. I’ve noticed that many hurricanes have formed or made landfall around these dates.

Aug. 1-2:
Significant storms focus on the Northeast and New England.

Aug. 6:
Moon attains maximum south declination.

Aug. 6-7:
The coastal areas from Virginia and North Carolina through New England are in for some severe weather in the form of storms producing wind and rain.

Aug. 9-12:
A tropical system may get its act together over Cuba and the Bahamas. Tropical moisture from this system or elsewhere should be pulled up over the Florida Peninsula and the Carolinas. Severe storms will develop over the Ohio Valley as well.
Another hot spot for hurricane development is shown off the eastern coast of Mexico in the western Gulf around 96 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude.

Aug. 12:
Moon crosses equator.

Aug. 11-13:
Gusty winds will prevail along the West Coast with storm potential further inland.

Aug 14-15:
Meteorological mayhem breaks out over the Southeast U.S. through the Ohio Valley as atmospheric elements combine over the area. One scenario shows a tropical system approaching the west coast of Florida and pushing inland with soaking rains. Another model suggests strong storms with damaging winds and flooding.

Aug. 16-18:
A strong storm system is indicated over New England and the Canadian Maritimes as energy moving from the west interacts with a warm, moist air mass.

Aug. 19:
Moon attains maximum north declination.

Aug. 19-22:
Several atmospheric ingredients will come together over the Southeastern States from the Big Bend of Florida into Georgia creating a threat of severe weather. The threat will extend into the Ohio Valley as well. It is possible that this signifies a tropical system or at least abundant tropical moisture that drops heavy rain over the Southeast.

Aug. 20-22:
Another potential Hurricane Hot Spot that also bears watching now extends from the central Gulf of Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Aug 22-23:
Increasing moisture over the central California coast may lead to anomalous rainfall.
A strong low pressure system develops over the western Great Lakes unleashing strong thunderstorms and gusty winds. (Forecast in italics was added on August 8, 2006)

Aug. 26:
Moon crosses equator.

Aug. 26-27:
The central Gulf of Mexico is still a concern for tropical activity during this period.
The West Coast States and Intermountain area will more than likely experience an influx of moisture setting off storms and flash flooding at this time.
An important area worth watching now is the U.S. Southeast particularly northern Florida through the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina. Severe weather, perhaps a tropical system, is possible here.

Aug. 28-30:
Tropical storm formation is possible over the central Baja Peninsula. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is imminent over the Colorado Front Range and adjacent areas.
Tropical troubles are still brewing over a broad area from western Cuba through western Florida and into Georgia and South Carolina. (See August 26-27)

Aug. 30-Sept. 1:
The West Coast and Intermountain West should feel the effects of a strong monsoonal flow that will unleash heavy rainfall over the area. Abnormal amounts of moisture are shown over the southern California coast.
Another potential Hurricane or severe weather trouble spot forms over Louisiana.
The indications for the Northeast are that windy and stormy conditions will affect the Eastern Seaboard from around Washington DC northward into New England.

Friday, July 21, 2006

July 16-19, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here for July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were calculated between November 16, 2005 and November 28, 2005.

July 16-18 Forecast:
The west central coast of Mexico near 106 West Longitude and 21 North Latitude shows the potential for severe weather which may be a tropical storm system.

Results

The low pressure system described below became Tropical Depression 5-E, and the Tropical Storm Daniel. It developed along the longitude I pinpointed but further south around 12 to 15 North Latitude instead of 21.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006

LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N106W WITHIN IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS. STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N108W 15N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N102W 16N97W...AND OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N94W.


Forecast

July 17-19 Forecast:
The east coast of Mexico also shows potential for tropical storm development. The area in question lies along 98 West and 23 North over the States of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

Results

July 18, 2006
The following report from the Mexican Weather Bureau states that "a low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz...is bringing moderate to strong rain, lightning, and strong winds to the eastern states."

Canal de baja presión en el Occidente del Golfo de México, frente a las costas de Tamaulipas y Veracruz, se asocia a la onda tropical 16, ambos sistemas favorecerán nublados y lluvia de moderada a muy fuerte con tormentas eléctricas y vientos fuertes en los estados de la vertiente Oriental.

July 19, 2006
The following report from the Mexican Weather Bureau states "tropical wave #17 is bringing strong to intense rains to the States of Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Guerrero
La activa onda tropical N0. 17 ocasionará lluvias de muy fuertes a intensas en los estados de Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca y Guerrero.

July 17-19, 2006 Forecast:

On the U.S. mainland, northern and western Texas may see severe storms or tornadoes.

Results

No severe storms or tornadoes reported. The main event was triple-digit heat.

July 17-19, 2006 Forecast:

Further north, over Minnesota and Wisconsin, dangerous storms and damaging winds will be the attention-getter.

Results

July 18, 2006- Accuweather
For some, there will be good news, as a cold front slicing through the Midwest will break up the heat and humidity - at least temporarily. This front, however, will pack a cruel twist, in that it will bring the potential for severe storms with it from the western and central Great Lakes back into Iowa. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat to be on alert for; however, some storms will also have the capability of producing hail.

July 19, 2006- The Weather Channel
Midwest

Violent thunderstorms erupted in southern Minnesota Wednesday morning then raced off to the southeast toward northwestern Illinois. Once reaching Illinois the thunderstorms took a right turn and went south through western parts of the state. During the evening the storms turned again, this time to the southwest and took aim on St. Louis. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected overnight tonight. At highest risk are southeastern Minnesota, northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. Besides the threat of twisters, powerful winds, large hail and locally excessive downpours#up to five inches#are likely.

July 17-19, 2006 Forecast:

This potent weather system then continues toward the east over the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.

Results

July 17, 2006- Accuweather
The oppressive heat in parts of the Northeast will be eased a bit, but at a cost. A cold front coming down from Canada Tuesday will collide with the hot, humid air mass over the region. As this happens, the atmosphere will become unstable, and towering thunderstorm clouds will begin to build. A line of storms will march toward the East Coast during the day, but will likely not reach the big cities until later in the day or at night. The main threat with these storms will be from damaging winds and frequent lightning, but large hail and heavy downpours are also expected.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

July 13-15, 2006 Forecast Results

Click here to see July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.

These forecasts were perpared during November 2005.

July 13-15 Forecast:The development of a tropical system is likely in the southwestern Caribbean. Tropical moisture is indicated as well over the western portions of Cuba and the Florida Peninsula.

Results

July 13, 2006- NWS

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE… MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM FLORIDA TO W CUBA FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 81W-85W MOVING W.

July 15, 2006- NWS

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-84W.