Long-Range Forecast Results 2000

The forecasts appeared in the August/September 2000 issue of TMA and were drawn up during the end of Feburary and the beginning of March 2000.

Forecast
Aug 6-8, 2000: Tropical storm or hurricane formation is possible off the west coast of Africa at 24 West Longitude between 17 and 19 North Latitude.

Results
Aug 4, 2000: (NWS) BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

Forecast
Aug 6-8, 2000: The same potential exists off the west coast of Mexico at about 109 West Longitude between 15 and 17 North Latitude.

Results
Aug 6, 2000: (NWS) TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.6W AT 06/2100Z. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

Forecast
Aug 15-17, 2000: Cool, dry Canadian air penetrates the eastern Great Lakes area down through the Carolinas.
Once again, this will prompt severe thunderstorms if moisture is available. In any case, gusty winds usually accompany this arrangement.

Results
Aug 15: (NWS) A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT
WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
Aug 16: (TWC) A vigorous cool front swept through New England today, bringing scattered thunderstorms...
(Severe Thunderstorm warnings were also posted by the NWS for the Carolinas and Virginia during this period.)

Forecast
Aug 27-29: Strong storms with potentially destructive winds are designated for the northern and central US Rockies.

Results
Aug 27: (TWC) With more than 1.5 million acres ablaze, fire officials in the West are hoping for a bought of fall-like weather to help them control the flames.
A cold front passed through the region Saturday, but did not bring the sort of relief officials were hoping for. Instead, the front produced gusty winds that fanned the out-of-control fires, and allowed two large fires to merge in Montana’s Bitterroot Valley… But instead of rain or snow, dry lightning and high winds chased fire crews off the front lines Saturday.
Aug 28: (NWS) MONTANA WEATHER SUMMARY
THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...HOWEVER GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN TIER.