October 2010 Hurricane Outlook

Tropical Storm Matthew Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Accuweather meteorologists are warning of the potential development of a tropical
system at the end of this month in the Caribbean. Based on the planetary alignments during this period, I think that is what will happen.



The above map shows where one planetary model places a strong emphasis around the 30th of September. Accuweather meteorologists also state the possibility of this system affecting Florida and the East Coast. I would agree with them as other planetary indicators do highlight the East Coast area through October 3rd.

Another broad area that is accentuated around September 30th through October 3rd lies in and around 50 west longitude roughly between 15 and 23 north latitude.



This is roughly about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. We may see some tropical development there.

A third area that stands out during this period falls in and around 104 west longitude and 19 north latitude.




The area encompasses the Mexican states of Michoacán, Guerrero, and Colima. We may see tropical development there or a severe weather pattern.

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


“There is a God-shaped vacuum in the heart of every man which cannot be filled by any created thing, but only by God, the Creator, made known through Jesus”—Blaise Pascal

Tropical Storm Matthew Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Tropical Storm Matthew formed today in the Caribbean fulfilling the long-range forecast posted here on May 28th almost 4 months ago.







The Accuweather map above shows Tropical Storm Matthew's position and the area it will effect over the next few days.


The Weather Alternative forecast read as follows:


Sept 21-23, 2010

The Sun’s oppositions to Jupiter and Uranus, as well as the parallel of Mars to Neptune gather their influence together over the Central American countries of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. The resultant weather pattern may be a tropical storm or hurricane that affects the area or a severe weather pattern ignited by tropical moisture.


I posted a reminder again on September 6th.


Current thinking is the Matthew will affect Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize over the next few days with heavy rain. This path is a bit more to the north than I had envisioned.


So far this hurricane season The Weather Alternative long-range forecasts have found their fulfillment in Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie, Tropical Depression 5, Hurricane Earl, Tropical Depression 10E and now Tropical Storm Matthew.

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!


Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!


Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010


Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September


Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2


Introduction to the Weather Alternative


How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


Our political way of life is by the laws of nature, of nature's God, and of course presupposes the existence of God, the moral ruler of the universe, and a rule of right and wrong, of just and unjust, binding upon man, preceding all institutions of human society and of government. --John Quincy Adams President of the United States, 1825-1829

Experimental Forecast Results

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!



In July I posted some experimental forecasts. These were based on some research I was doing to improve forecast accuracy. I called them experimental because the techniques I was basing these forecasts on are not the regular techniques I normally use. This particular series of forecasts covered July and August.

To me, the results are not very convincing and so this particular technique doesn't look like something I'll be using.

Forecast

July 21-23, 2010
A low pressure area, most likely centering in and around the Georgia-Tennessee area, or front affects the East Central and Deep South area.

Results

The main weather event at this time was high heat.

Forecast

July 26-28, 2010
High pressure and fair conditions embrace the southern Mississippi Valley area.

Results

There was a lot of rain over the area between these dates.

Forecast

July 30-August 1, 2010
An increase in temperatures and moisture over the Oklahoma-Arkansas area. Most likely will manifest as a low pressure area bringing rain.

Results

No low pressure formed over the area.

Forecast

August 11-16, 2010
A noticeable increase in temperatures is indicated over the Southwest U.S. centering over New Mexico-Arizona area.

Results

The Weather Channel reported rising temperatures on the 12th and 14th.

Forecast

August 21-23, 2010
A high pressure area is shown over the southern California region resulting in warm and fair conditions.

Results

The area was warm and fair as predicted.

Central America Hurricane Potential Sept 18-23, 2010

Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


“No one ever drowned in sweat.”—Author Unknown

“Quality is not an act. It is a habit.” -- Aristotle

"Applaud us when we run, console us when we fall, cheer us when we recover, but for God's sake, let us pass on!" -- Edmund Burke

Central America Hurricane Potential Sept 18-23, 2010

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

So far this year The Weather Alternative long-range hurricane forecasts have pinpointed Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie, Tropical Depression 5, Hurricane Earl, and Tropical Depression 10E. Here's an upcoming scenario that might develop into some tropical activity in the Central America area.



A region senstive to planetary influences sets up approximately over 81 west longitude and 11 north latitude. This area is in the southwestern Caribbean off the eastern coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.




Starting with the conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus on the 18th, we then move into the Sun's oppositions to Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st. The Full Moon of the 23rd also heightens activity over the area.

The result just very well could be another tropical system that organizes over the area affecting Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Short of an all-out tropical system my next guess would be a severe weather pattern bringing heavy rains.



Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Education

The student who has to cram through a school or a college course, who has made himself merely a receptacle for the teacher's thoughts and ideas, is not educated; he has not gained much. He is a reservoir, not a fountain. One retains, the other gives forth. Unless his knowledge is converted into wisdom, into faculty, it will become stagnant like water.

--J.E. Dinger

Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

The Weather Alternative post of April 24, 2010, forecast hurricane or tropical storm activity over the Carolinas and Virginia between Sept. 2-5, 2010. Hurricane Earl lashed the coast of North Carolina today prompting mandatory evacuations from a couple of the islands of the Outer Banks. Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings were also posted for Virginia. Thus Earl fulfills the long-range forecast of about 4 and 1/2 months ago.


In a more recent post of August 27th entitled Hurricane Strike Zones for Sept 3rd, I mentioned that another place due for tropical activity was in and around the tip of the Baja Peninsula. I included the following map that highlighted both the Carolinas and the southern Baja.




Today, the area of low pressure that had been forming over the last couple of days became Tropical Depression 10E effectively fulfilling the August 27th forecast. Below is an Accuweather map showing it's current position.



So far this hurricane season The Weather Alternative long-range forecasts have found their fulfillment in Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie, Tropical Depression 5, and now Hurricane Earl, and Tropical Depression 10E.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


"If we are not governed by God, then we will be ruled by tyrants." -- William Penn