May 19-23, 2007 Forecast Results

The Weather Alternative post on April 19th presented two weather scenarios for May 19-23, 2007. One scenario called for an early tropical system to affect the Gulf Coast around Louisiana and Mississippi. The other made note of a possible severe weather system over the Rockies with the likelihood of strong storms over the Colorado-New Mexico area that would transit eastward and strengthen over Louisiana and Mississippi.

This second scenario is the one that has been developing over the country's midsection.

On May 21st, Accuweather reported the following over the Rockies:

The clash of warm moist air flowing north from of the Gulf of Mexico with incoming cool dry air ahead of a cold front moving through the northern High Plains and central Rockies will lead to the eruption of the intense thunderstorms. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds gusts in excess of 60 mph, large hail and isolated tornadoes. With an abundance of moisture in the atmosphere, any of the thunderstorms could also deliver a drenching downpour.

The severe weather system did not just strengthen over the Louisiana-Mississippi area as anticipated in the long-range forecast, but it strengthened over a large portion of the U.S. midsection. However, in and near the forecast area severe weather did occur as shown in the
folowing report and graphic from Accuweather:

Arklatex Flooding ConcernsUpdated: Tuesday, May 22, 2007 8:12 AM

The northern Plains will not be the only part of the nation to be threatened by flooding today. Rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will combine with a disturbance in the upper atmosphere to spread drenching thunderstorms across the Arklatex. The heavy bursts of rain will have difficulty seeping into the ground, with flooding as the result, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

As of tonight the storm system continues to threaten the U.S. midsection with tornadoes and severe storms:

Tornadoes and Severe Storms Updated: Wednesday, May 23, 2007 5:14 PM

A big thunderstorm outbreak over the midsection of the nation will bring the threat of tornadoes along with other severe weather right into Wednesday night.

The National Weather Service also reported a low-pressure system over Louisiana today:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

NEW ORLEANS LA610 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTAN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE A BETTERPROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME STRONG WITHGUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

Click here for Early Tropical System in the Gulf?

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Click here for July 2007 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook

Click here for Hurricane Season 2007