Tropical Activity

The Weather Alternative forecast posted on March 25, 2011 specified some "wild" weather likely to form around Puerto Rico between April 18-24, 2011. Check out the Accuweather map below that shows a low pressure area developing near Puerto Rico that may even develop tropical features.


Here's what the National Weather Service is saying:

April 21, 2011
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

In a few days we'll look at the results of the complete long-range forecast.

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

April 18-24, 2011 Severe Weather Window

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Cyclone Yasi fulfills long-range prediction!

Tropical Storm Matthew Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood