Man
is a cause-seeking creature. According to American philosopher, essayist, and
poet, Ralph Waldo Emerson, “The progress of the intellect is to the clearer
vision of causes” (Age.org). Man’s
obsession with understanding causes accounts for his advancement in every field
of endeavor known to him: metaphysics, religion, politics, and science to name
a few. The natural calamity of the Black Death presented a baffling occurrence
that drove men to consider and offer explanations of its cause in the hopes of
gaining insight and control over its effects. Some saw its cause as spiritual.
Man’s own iniquities had provoked the wrath of God and repentance was called
for to bring God’s forgiveness. Others conjectured that it was a matter of
science. Noxious fumes were released during earthquakes and eruptions that
contaminated the atmosphere and resulted in the massive loss of life witnessed
during the years of the plague. Still others resorted to the conspiracy theory
that the Jews had put into effect a plan to wipe out all Christians by
poisoning wells and springs everywhere. One other explanation for the Black
Death that seems even more ludicrous to today’s thinkers is that the cause was
astrological. Although to medieval man, it did not necessarily appear to be an absurd
hypothesis since astrology was routinely taught at the finest universities of
their day, modern textbooks immediately discount that explanation as useless.
When the King of France, King Philip VI, requested the opinion of the medical
faculty of the University of Paris as to the causes of the plague, Spielvogel
does not even elaborate on the answer provided by the medical faculty but
merely states “their advice proved worthless” (Spielvogel 328). The actual
response of the University of Paris was that the cause of the Black Death was
due to the Mars-Jupiter-Saturn conjunction of March 20, 1345 (Classical
Astrologer.me). But was the medical faculty’s response as worthless as it is
portrayed by modern thinkers? Were there any reasons to seriously consider
planetary influence as a causal factor in the plague and in other catastrophes,
cataclysms and upheavals? By considering the prognostic value of astrological
phenomena, the Church’s allowance of certain kinds of astrology, and the
fulfillment of astrological predictions, it will become clear if it appeared
reasonable to learned men of the time to consider astrological explanations as
a candidate for explaining earthly events.
By
prognostic value, two things are meant (Sepharial 5). The first of these is that
the planetary phenomena such as the alignments that are continuously formed
among the heavenly bodies and that make up the heart of the astrological method
can be calculated in advance. These planetary cycles recur at regular intervals
and thus can be observed again and again. The idea of the repeatability of
planetary alignments brought with it the possibility of verifiability and
falsifiability so that repeated observations of the same phenomena tended to
fine tune the astrologers’ understanding of what to expect and to confirm the
general effects of the cycles. As an older astrological author noted, “Watching
for coincidences is a necessary process of scientific discovery; and
coincidences between astronomic and atmospheric phenomena should be observed
and noted…the observation of sufficient coincidences in number may justify the
acceptance of an empirical law according to which we may, with approximate
safety, predict that when one of the events happens, the other will accompany
or follow” (McCormack 12.03). Important cycles were solar and lunar eclipses
such as the eighteen-year saros cycle and the nineteen-year metonic cycle.
Another key planetary cycle was the twenty-year great mutation cycle of Jupiter
and Saturn.
The
second meaning of prognostic value pertains to the celestial position in which
planetary alignments occur and the mundane locality in which they are
witnessed. Regarding the first of these, each section of the heavens, commonly
referred to as a sign or constellation, had a different influence on human
affairs. Taurus, for example, affected business among other things, while
Sagittarius affected horses and cattle etc. (Pearce 324). Each planet as well
ruled over some aspect of life, weather, and international relationships to
mention a few. Therefore, planetary alignments were not all interpreted in the
same way since they involved different planets and different constellations. As
far as mundane locality goes, this refers to the different localities on earth
that would be affected by the astronomical event in question. The time at which
a certain planetary alignment occurred would place those planets over a certain
area of the globe thus localizing their influence over that region. This fact
would explain why only certain areas were subject to the alignment and not
others. The prognostic value of the astrological system provided an orderly way
of understanding the world for the people of this period especially after a
time of much chaos, confusion, and uncertainty during the early Middle Ages.
Note that the understanding of these medieval and later astrologers was very
different than the stereotypical caricature often painted of the astrologers’
understanding of eclipses, which was often treated as “a relic of the
superstitious dread of barbarians who feared that ‘the dragon’ was about to
swallow the darkened luminary, and accordingly beat drums and made horrible
noises in order to frighten away the adversary (Pearce 314).”
Another
influence that had brought order to society during the emergence of the
Medieval world was the Christian church. As the official Roman state
disintegrated, the church filled the void and played an increasingly important
role. The Church, however, had a love-hate relationship with astrology. Church
Fathers such as Augustine and Origen took issue with some forms of astrology
because they felt it challenged human freedom and the power of God’s
will--important concepts in Christianity (Johnson 4).
Yet,
Thomas Aquinas made a distinction between what was allowable and unallowable
with astrology. In his treatment of the question regarding whether divination
by the stars was unlawful, Aquinas opined that to use astrology to know the”
certitude of future human actions” was an unlawful use of astrology and thus
superstitious and unlawful divination since it discounted human free will.
Nevertheless, “to apply the observation of the stars in order to foreknow those
future things that are caused by heavenly bodies, for instance, drought or rain
and so forth, it will be neither an unlawful nor a superstitious divination
(Aquinas). The Christian worldview was probably the best worldview through
which to understand planetary influence since there would be less reason to
consider the planets as gods in their own right and just to view them as a part
of creation not to be worshipped or adored. This permissible area of
astrological use is today referred to as mundane astrology. This is the branch
of astrology dealing with the influence of the stars and planets on nations,
cities, agriculture, war, epidemics etc.
Additionally,
the Bible seems to use language that sounds astrological in nature. Scholars
refer to such language as “apocalyptic imagery.” We find in Matthew 24:29 that
“the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will
fall from heaven, and the powers of heaven will be shaken (Holy Bible).
According to Rebecca Johnson, these accounts mention astrology only
incidentally, but they reveal the idea “that the planets were in some way
responsible for events on earth (Johnson 1).” Furthermore, she points out that
this was the understanding of the intellectual elite at the time of the Black
Death.
So
far it has been pointed out that the prognostic value of the astrological
method provided an orderly system that allowed logical conclusions to be
deduced from natural phenomena. The events would vary in nature, in the time of
their occurrence, and in locality all according to certain astrological
influences. In addition, the Church considered the prognostication of mundane
events through astrology as permissible. But were the predictions of any value?
Skeptics
and critics are quick to highlight failed astrological predictions as if these
were the only kind astrologers make. One such popular one was the deluge of
February 1, 1524 that failed to materialize and was rescheduled for February 1,
1624. No deluge occurred then either (Randi). But one must survey a
representative sample objectively to come to a fair conclusion. One could
easily pick the most embarrassing weather forecasts of our conventional
meteorologists and erroneously conclude that the effectiveness of our
present-day forecasts is worse than it is. For example, over a million Florida
residents were told to evacuate coastal areas as Hurricane Floyd approached the
peninsula in September of 1999. Floyd never hit Florida (Wikipedia.org), and in
2009, Britain’s Met Office were left red faced as their predictions for a
“barbecue summer” turned into a literal wash out (Met Office).
Following
are some of the astrological predictions underreported in modern literature but
well-known during their time. Tycho Brahe, the brilliant Danish astronomer, was
quite famous for his astrology as well. His astrological interpretation of the
supernova of November 1572 coupled with the great conjunction of Jupiter and
Saturn around the same time was published in two volumes. The Dane foretold of
the decline of the Catholic religion and the rise of a great Protestant soldier
and humanitarian who would die a violent death in 1632. The life of Gustavus
Aldophus fit the description so well that it cemented Brahe’s reputation as
Europe’s leading astronomer (Plant; Goodagve 52).
Following
close on Brahe’s heels and influenced by him, astronomer and mathematician,
Johannes Kepler was an ardent practitioner of astrology. Kepler is remembered
for his discovery of the planetary laws of motion which he began publishing in
1609. But Kepler’s first brush with fame came because of his
astro-meteorological prediction of the winter that put Styermark, Austria on
ice in 1593. In the same prediction, he foretold of the revolutionary
disturbances of the Austrian peasantry (Goodavage 54). Kepler while in Prague
had a following among the lower classes. His biographer, Max Caspar, relates
that 15 days in advance, Kepler told the local populace that there would be
wind and rain on a certain day. A fierce gale set in when the day arrived, and
the people, amazed, wondered what was happening. “Then the cry grew loud,
“Kepler comes. Kepler comes” (Kollerstrom).
William
Lilly, England’s most famous astrologer during the time of Charles I and
England’s Civil War, was even consulted several times by Charles, but the
astrologer lamented that the king would not follow his advice (Lilly 5).
Lilly’s most celebrated prediction, however, was published in his book in 1651
entitled Monarchy or No Monarchy. The book contained several drawings alluding
to the plague and Great Fire of London which took place in 1666. Lilly was
summoned that year before an investigative committee after the conflagration
because it was understood that he had hinted at such things in his book of
1651. His prediction was too close for comfort, and the committee wanted to
know if he had any further involvement or knowledge of who brought it about –
which he did not.
Commander
Morrison of the Royal Navy, writing under the pen name Zadkiel I, followed the
lead of the older astrologers of the Middle Ages and made numerous predictions
regarding famine and disease such as the Irish potato famine in his Alamac of
1846 published the year before (McCormack 10:09), his prediction of the fatal
outbreak of cholera in Great Britain in 1849 and another occurrence again in
1853-4. (Pearce 391) While astrology has always had its detractors, it can at
least be seen that its track record was not nearly as abysmal as thought to be
in modern times.
Having
looked at the prognostic value of astrological phenomena, the Church’s
allowance of certain kinds of astrology, and the fulfillment of astrological
predictions, it is now somewhat clearer that it appeared reasonable to learned
men of the time to consider astrological explanations as a candidate for
explaining earthly events and that they were not as worthless as is often
portrayed. The prognostic value of astrology lay in the repeatability of
planetary alignments as well as the celestial and mundane positions of those
alignments that provided a system of prediction that varied the type and place
of events. The Church permitted its followers to engage in certain kinds of
astrology, and astrological language in scripture hinted that planetary
influence is in part a cause of earthly events. Finally, it is apparent that
many predictions of that period and beyond were, in fact, accurate and reliable
giving good reason to not completely dismiss astrology’s value. One might take
the position that Kepler took when his benefactor asked him how a man of his
intelligence could believe in astrology. Kepler replied, “As a Lutheran
astrologer, I retain the substance but discard the nonsense” (Today in
Science).
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