July 23-31, 2010 Forecast Results

The Weather Alternative post of June 22, 2010 concerned a forecast for the West Coast for July 23-31, 2010. The forecast called for an anomalous weather pattern to bring a low pressure area or strong cold front over the Pacific Northwest and possibly California.

By the end of the forecast period a windy system was to develop off shore and progress eastward over the West Coast states.

The main events from the 23rd onward related to hotter than average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest sometimes threatening record high temperatures, and many days of Fire Weather Warnings by the National Weather Service due to dry storms generating lightning that could spark wildfires.

As we approach the end of the forecast period, the gusty winds expected are beginning to materialize as well as a low pressure system off the Oregon coast. Here's what the NWS issued yesterday.

...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY (30th) AND SATURDAY (31st)...

.LOW PRESSURE NEARING THE OREGON COAST WILL BRING INCREASING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Jul. 30, 2010

... RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA...

For tomorrow, the 31st, The Weather Channel reports An upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and High Plains will bring a chance for some severe storms in Idaho and Montana. The Accuweather map above shows the area to be affected.


Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

West Coast Weather Concerns July 23-31, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for July

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

An Italian Man Gets One Wish

An Italian man walking along a California beach was deep in prayer. All of a sudden he said out loud, "Lord, grant me one wish."

Suddenly the sky clouded above his head and in a booming voice the Lord said, "Because you have had the faith to ask, I will grant you one wish." The man said, "Build a bridge to Hawaii, so I can drive over anytime I want to."

The Lord said, "Your request is very materialistic. Think of the logistics of that kind of undertaking. The supports required to reach the bottom of the Pacific! The concrete and steel it would take! I can do it, but it is hard for me to justify your desire for worldly things. Take a little more time and think of another wish, a wish you think would honor and glorify me."

The Italian man thought about it for a long time. Finally he said, "Lord, I have been married and divorced four times. All of my wives said that I am uncaring and insensitive. I wish that I could understand women. I want to know how they feel inside, what they are thinking when they give me the silent treatment, why they cry, what they mean when they say "nothing" and how I can make a woman truly happy?"

After a few minutes God said, "You want two lanes or four on that bridge?"

Here Comes Bonnie!

Tropical Storm Bonnie, besides being on its way toward the Louisiana area, appears to be on its way to fulfill The Weather Alternative long-range forecast posted back in April.

The forecast, for July 22-25, 2010, stated:

The potential for a low pressure system to develop off the southeast coast of Texas exists now. This could be a tropical system. Serious atmospheric disturbances are indicated along the central and eastern Gulf Coast as well. Once again, this could be indicative of a tropical system threatening the area.

The National Weather Service map above puts T.S. Bonnie over the Louisiana coast on Sunday, July 25.

Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

West Coast Weather Concerns July 23-31, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for July

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


100 points to get into Heaven

A man dies and goes to heaven. St. Peter meets him at the pearly gates.

St. Peter says, "Here's how it works. You need 100 points to make it into heaven. You tell me all the good things you've done, and I give you a certain number of points for each item, depending on how good it was. When you reach 100 points, you get in."

"Okay" the man says, "I attended church every Sunday"
"That's good, says St. Peter, " that's worth two points"

"Two points?" he says. "Well, I gave 10% of all my earnings to the church"
"Well, let's see," answers Peter, "that's worth another 2 points. Did you do anything else?"

"Two points? Golly. How about this: I started a soup kitchen in my city and worked in a shelter for homeless veterans."
"Fantastic, that's certainly worth a point, " he says.

"hmmm...," the man says, "I was married to the same woman for 50 years and never cheated on her, even in my heart."
"That's wonderful," says St. Peter, "that's worth three points!"

"THREE POINTS!!" the man cries, "At this rate the only way I get into heaven is by the grace of God!"

"Come on in!"

Experimental Forecasts Part 2- July-Sept 2010

Here are some more experimental forecasts for July, August, and September 2010 based on recent studies. If these pan out, these refinements will be included in my forecast method.

July 25-27, 2010
At this time Mercury and Neptune form an opposition. This has been observed to bring high relative humidity, sudden squalls, and low pressure areas. The Northeast and New England are the areas to watch at this time.

August 20-22, 2010
The Sun's opposition to Neptune is known to result in increased southerly airflow, rising temperatures and humidity, and low pressure areas bringing precipitation. In this case the area to be targeted is the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley. Other factors show that this period of severe weather could start around the 18th.

September 3-5, 2010
The Hawaiian Islands may experience some severe weather at this time. One possibility is a tropical system that may come close to the area.

September 13-15, 2010
There is a chance for a severe weather pattern to develop over the Florida Panhandle now. If a tropical system, it may extend from the Texas-Louisiana state line eastward to the Florida Panhandle. I'm not too convinced yet about this one, but there may be something to this. Other possibilities include severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail.

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

West Coast Weather Concerns July 23-31, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for July

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Love Those Italian Girls
Did you hear about the 21 year old Italian girl who knelt in front of the statue of Madonna?
She said: "You who conceived without sin, let me sin without conceiving!"

Experimental Forecasts July & August 2010

As time permits, I like to study past forecasts that I've made with the objective of improving my forecast accuracy. Over time this study has repaid itself by leading me to include refinements in my forecast method. Not too much has been left us to study from past generations of astro-meteorologist. So, many areas of the field must be pioneered afresh. Below are some experimental forecasts that are based on recent studies. Some of these seem to confirm or add additional information to forecasts that I've already posted in the past few months.

July 21-23, 2010
A low pressure area, most likely centering in and around the Georgia-Tennessee area, or front affects the East Central and Deep South area. This is similar to the July 22-25, 2010 forecast made back in April.

July 26-28, 2010
High pressure and fair conditions embrace the southern Mississippi Valley area.

July 30-August 1, 2010
An increase in temperatures and moisture over the Oklahoma-Arkansas area. Most likely will manifest as a low pressure area bringing rain.

August 11-16, 2010
A noticeable increase in temperatures is indicated over the Southwest U.S. centering over New Mexico-Arizona area.

August 21-23, 2010
A high pressure area is shown over the southern California region resulting in warm and fair conditions.

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for July

West Coast Weather Concerns July 23-31, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part I

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Signs of Intelligence

“In the movie, scientists are scanning the skies for signs of intelligent life in space. Their radio-telescopes just receive static—random sounds from space. It’s reasonable to assume there’s no intelligence behind that. Then one day they begin receiving a transmission of prime numbers, which are numbers divisible only by themselves and one.

“The scientists reason that it’s too improbable that there would be a natural cause behind a string of numbers like that. This wasn’t merely unorganized static; it was information, a message with content. From that, they concluded there was an intelligent cause behind it. As Sagan himself once said, ‘The receipt of a single message from space’ would be enough to know there’s an intelligence out there. That’s reasoning by analogy—we know that where there’s intelligent communication, there’s an intelligent cause.”

Bradley’s eyes bored in on me as he delivered his conclusion. “And if a single message from space is enough for us to conclude there’s an intelligence behind it, then what about the vast amounts of information contained in the DNA of every living plant and animal?” he said.

“Each cell in the human body contains more information than in all thirty volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica. It’s certainly reasonable to make the inference that this isn’t the random product of unguided nature, but it’s the unmistakable sign of an Intelligent Designer.”

Today it takes a great deal of faith to be an honest scientist who is an atheist.”

WALTER L. BRADLEY, PH.D. Quoted from The Case for Faith by Lee Strobel

Recent Tropical Predictions

A recent long-range forecast for July 3-6, 2010 mentioned the likelihood of a tropical system developing on the Pacific side of Central America.

This comes from a post on April 8, 2010:

July 3-6

The same configuration of planets in the Full Moon chart on the Pacific side of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama is activated once again between these dates. This is a strong argument for a powerful low pressure system affecting the area with heavy rains. Once again, a tropical storm or hurricane cannot be ruled out.

The above satellite view is for July 4th and shows the tropical disturbance developing over Honduras and Nicaragua but on the eastern side. This eventually became TD 2 that is hitting southern Texas and northeastern Mexico today.


On the 6th, the National Weather Service reported that this tropical wave at the time was bringing heavy rains to El Salvador and southern Guatemala.



Another forecast posted in April mentioned two other places that would experience severe weather that might be tropical.
The first area was over New England and Nova Scotia between June 23-26.

The Accuweather map at right shows the severe thunderstorms that targeted the region on June 24th.
Strong winds that could down trees and powerlines, as well as damage some structures were the main danger from the severe thunderstorms.



The next forecast was for the same period but for an area roughly around 240 to 270 miles north of the Dominican Republic where I envisioned the possible formation of a tropical system.


On the 25th The Weather Channel reported an area of disturbed weather just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Forecasters expected conditions for development to become more favorable for development over the next 2 or 3 days. This was, however, much further east than I was expecting.


Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for June

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for July

West Coast Weather Concerns July 23-31, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part I

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made


We are but of yesterday and yet we already fill your cities, your palace, senate and forum, we have left to you only your temples. --Tertullian on the rapid spread of Christianity (born ca. 150-160, died ca. 220-240)