Thursday, July 08, 2010

Recent Tropical Predictions

A recent long-range forecast for July 3-6, 2010 mentioned the likelihood of a tropical system developing on the Pacific side of Central America.

This comes from a post on April 8, 2010:

July 3-6

The same configuration of planets in the Full Moon chart on the Pacific side of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama is activated once again between these dates. This is a strong argument for a powerful low pressure system affecting the area with heavy rains. Once again, a tropical storm or hurricane cannot be ruled out.

The above satellite view is for July 4th and shows the tropical disturbance developing over Honduras and Nicaragua but on the eastern side. This eventually became TD 2 that is hitting southern Texas and northeastern Mexico today.

On the 6th, the National Weather Service reported that this tropical wave at the time was bringing heavy rains to El Salvador and southern Guatemala.

Another forecast posted in April mentioned two other places that would experience severe weather that might be tropical.
The first area was over New England and Nova Scotia between June 23-26.

The Accuweather map at right shows the severe thunderstorms that targeted the region on June 24th.
Strong winds that could down trees and powerlines, as well as damage some structures were the main danger from the severe thunderstorms.

The next forecast was for the same period but for an area roughly around 240 to 270 miles north of the Dominican Republic where I envisioned the possible formation of a tropical system.

On the 25th The Weather Channel reported an area of disturbed weather just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Forecasters expected conditions for development to become more favorable for development over the next 2 or 3 days. This was, however, much further east than I was expecting.

Hurricane Season 2010--Caribbean, Mexico, Central America

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for June

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for July

West Coast Weather Concerns July 23-31, 2010

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecasts for August

Hurricane Season 2010--Forecast for September

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part I

Hurricane Season 2010--Central America Part 2

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

We are but of yesterday and yet we already fill your cities, your palace, senate and forum, we have left to you only your temples. --Tertullian on the rapid spread of Christianity (born ca. 150-160, died ca. 220-240)

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