Hurricane Irene Closely Fulfills Long-range Forecast

The Dell Horoscope long-range weather forecast that appeared in the August 2011 edition stated:
August 22-25
Tropical moisture still has access to the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. This time, however, there is an indication of a low pressure system about 200 miles off the North Carolina coast, which could be a tropical system.


This is a great forecast in the sense that six months ago when I formulated the forecast (February 2011) the general time and area of this tropical system was obvious whereas conventional forecasters only began to see the potential around August 19th. The day before, conventional forecasters commented that it was too soon to determine what land areas would eventually be affected by the tropical wave that eventually would become Irene.

There is something I overlooked which could have made the forecast even more accurate since Hurricane Irene will be affecting the U.S. East Coast past the time frame I used. Mercury is turning direct today (26th) and as it does so it will make a ses-square aspect to Uranus. Normally, this would be considered a "minor" aspect, somewhat disruptive to weather patterns and usually pretty quick--a one day transit. Since Mercury, however, is slow in motion this aspect will linger for a couple of days and be triggered by the Moon's conjunction to Mercury tomorrow (Aug 27th). Under these circumstances a minor aspect by a fast moving planet now becomes a major aspect due to Mercury's slower-than-normal motion. Mercury-Uranus combinations are known for stormy and windy conditions.

How does this tie in with Hurricane Irene? Well, the Solar Ingress chart for the summer season places Uranus over the U.S. Northeast and New England exactly where Irene will track during the next few days.


New Weather Alternative Website

What About Rain For Texas?

Tropical Storm Harvey Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!

General Weather Indications for August 2011

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

What About Rain for Texas?

In a recent Accuweather post on breaking the Texas heat and drought, two options were discussed. The first one involves a frontal boundary pushing southward over Texas. Alas, this seems unlikely as it's very tough for a front to make it that far south and bring any major change.


The second option is for a tropical system to move in from the south bringing needed rain and thus break the drought and heat. The following comments explore the long-range possibilities of this happening during the first two weeks of September.

September 2-4, 2011
Indications in the Solar Ingress chart for the summer season show that the influence of the planet Venus will be activated now. In astrometeorology, the general tendency of Venus is to increase moisture. Venus occupies the 95th degree of west longitude passing through the Gulf of Mexico, eastern Texas, and northward through the Plains. This could indicate a southerly airflow that returns moisture, hopefully in the form of rain, to these areas. Precipitation could be the strongest in the Gulf around 22 north latitude. This suggests a tropical system that could form roughly about 150 miles east of Tampico, Mexico. Of course, if such a system develops, there is the chance that it will travel westward to Mexico and not affect the U.S.

September 7-9, 2011
This period features a Mercury-Neptune opposition, which is well known for its ability to increase moisture. Some of the recent heavy rainfall in the Northeast was due an earlier Mercury-Neptune opposition. Various lunation charts place this planetary pair over the 95th and 97th degrees of west longitude. Once again, these pass through Texas. Venus is once again active in the Solar Ingress. So we see the same area in the Gulf off of Tampico, Mexico activated again. Perhaps this is a continuation of the Sept 2-4 influence. The general idea is that a moist air mass from the Gulf is drawn northward over Texas.

September 15-17, 2011
More Venus and Neptune aspects occur now and since both these planets increase moisture there is a good chance Texas will receive the benefits of an increased southerly air flow from the Gulf. Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas stand the chance of some severe weather now.

New Weather Alternative Website

Tropical Storm Harvey Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!

General Weather Indications for August 2011

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

The Rise of the Antichrist (read more)

Tropical Depression 8 Fulfills Long-range Weather Forecast!

The long-range weather forecast for August 16-18 published in the August edition of Dell Horoscope magazine had been fulfilled by Tropical Depression 8. The forecast, prepared in February of this year, stated "...a tropical system may churn from the Windward Islands and pass south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, probably affecting them, and then continue south of Jamaica and hit Honduras and Nicaragua."


The National Weather Service map above shows T.D. 8 hitting Honduras and surrounding areas.

The next map below is from August 17th and shows T.D. 8, when it was still a tropical wave, passing south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on its way toward Jamaica as stated in the long-range forecast.



The tropical depression is expected to pour down as much as 8 inches of rain over Honduras causing flash flooding and mudslides.

The other portion of the same August 16-18 forecast had a close fulfillment.


The forecast was based on the simultaneous conjunctions of the Sun, Mercury, and Venus which took place on the 16th.

"Around this time the conjunctions of the Sun, Mercury, and Venus affect the east coast states of North Carolina and Virginia through Pennsylvania. Severe weather in the form of strong storms should result."

The Weather Channel headline for August 15th read "Storm slogs through Northeast with heavy rain." The big storm also pushed a significant cold front through most of the South and Southeast.

New Weather Alternative Website

General Weather Indications for August 2011

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

Dell Horoscope Forecast Results August 9-15, 2011

Here is the next installment of the results of the long-range weather forecasts published in the August edition of Dell Horoscope magazine. These forecasts were prepared in February of 2011.



Forecast
August 9-13, 2011

This forecast called for an active weather period over the U.S. Northeast and New England as well as eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas. A similar forecast was posted here on July 25, 2011. The possibilities were for intense storms or a tropical system to affect these areas.

Results

Accuweather reported on August 9th that storms and a possible tornado caused damage in Delaware leaving 19,000 people without power in New Castle County. Storms ripped through parts of Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey causing power outages, traffic snarls and possibly a tornado over northern Delaware.

The above Accuweather map shows the downpours of 1 to 3 inches of rain to hit the Northeast and New England starting on the 13th triggering flash flooding. Conventional forecasters pointed out that this is due to a strong storm system that typically is found in the U.S. during autumn months.

Part of the forecast pinpointed eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas as areas that would see possible tropical storm development. The National Weather Service reported on the 14th, one day after my forecast ended that a surface trough brings continued convection over Hispaniola. But the main tropical activity was further north than the area I mentioned.

On the 11th, The Weather Channel showed this area north of the Bahamas that could slowly develop. This eventually became Tropical Storm Franklin, which was directed away from the U.S. coast.

On the 13th, Tropical Depression 7 formed southeast of Bermuda around 61 west longitude and 27 north latitude. In the Dell article I did pinpoint the area around 67 west longitude and 24 north latitude as an area to generally watch for tropical activity throughout August and September.


Forecast
Aug 12-13, 2011

A low pressure system may form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Tampa, FL It remains to be seen if it develops tropical characteristics.

Results

Not much happened in this area at the time. The National Weather Service reported the following on the 13th:

GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND WE
CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

Forecast
August 12-15, 2011

A couple of tropical waves in the western Caribbean may show signs of strengthening as
they approach Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Results

On the 11th, the NWS reported a tropical wave moving westward in the central Caribbean. Then on the 13th they reported isolated moderate convection inland over Honduras and El Salvador due to the wave. The Mexican weather service reported strong to very strong rains over the Yucatan on the 13th. The above map shows the tropical wave's position on the 13th.

General Weather Indications for August 2011

August 16-18, 2011 Long-range Weather Forecast

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

Dell Horoscope Forecast Results Aug 1-8, 2011

Here are the first results of the long-range weather forecasts of mine that appeared in the August issue of Dell Horoscope magazine. These forecasts, which cover the months from August to November, were prepared in February of this year and submitted to the magazine in March.


Forecast

August 1-5
Mercury's retrograde station and the squares of the Sun and Venus to Jupiter work together to highlight an area of severe weather or tropical storm /hurricane activity over the New England and Nova Scotia areas.

Results

Severe weather was active over the New England and Nova Scotia areas at this time.
According to Accuweather, on August 2nd, portions of New England and the Great Lakes were the target of violent thunderstorms.
Southeastern Maine to eastern Massachusetts is the zone at risk for thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts over 60 mph, hail larger than quarters, numerous lightning strikes and torrential downpours.

The Canadian weather bureau posted rainfall warnings for a few counties in Nova Scotia.




Forecast

August 5-8
Mercury retrogrades and activates the Mars-Neptune square that affects the southern tip of the Baja peninsula in the Cardinal Solar Ingress chart. This strongly suggests a tropical storm or hurricane that will be drawn to the area.

Results

The weather map above shows a developing low pressure area south of the Baja on the 6th. It never developed tropical characteristics but a tight pressure gradient brought winds in and around the Baja area. The Mexican weather service reported an 80 percent chance of rain or greater, lightning, extremely hot temperatures, and winds 20 to 35 km/h with gusts on the 6th. One to two inches of rain were reported in a 24 hour period on the 8th.



Forecast

August 6-8
Mercury's opposition to Neptune also affects North Carolina and northward into the Northeast. Neptune is indicative of tropical moisture so at this time we can expect an influx of rain-producing moisture over this area. This does not necessarily mean a tropical system.

Results

Tropical Depression Emily made an appearance off the Southeast coast on the 7th but never made it to North Carolina. However, the Mercury-Neptune influence still brought an influx of rain to North Carolina. On the 6th, flash flooding in Charlotte prompted evacuations and closures as 2 to 3 inches of rain--and in some areas more than 6 inches--hit the area.



Flooding and gusty storms also impacted Harrisburg, Pa. and northern Virginia dropping 1 to 3 inches of rain in a short time. On the 7th, the region from Baltimore to New York City was especially susceptible to flooding from thunderstorm downpours.

General Weather Indications for August 2011

August 9-13, 2011 Long-range Forecast

August 16-18, 2011 Long-range Weather Forecast

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

John Quincy ADAMS on U.S. Foreign Policy

"[America] goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own. She will commend the general cause by the countenance of her voice, and the benignant sympathy of her example. She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom." -- John Quincy Adams, Speech before the House of Representatives, July 4, 1821; quoted in William Bonner and Pierre Lemieux (Editors), The Idea of America (Les Belles Lettres, 2003), p. 237.

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

The tropical systems referenced below from Hurricane Season 2010 fulfilled long-range weather forecasts based on astrometeorology or planetary cycles.

Hurricane Beatriz Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!

Cyclone Yasi fulfills long-range prediction!

Tropical Storm Matthew Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

T.S. Eugene and July 29-31 Forecast Results

The Weather Alternative post of May 14, 2011 entitled Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico mentioned that planetary alignments during July 29-31, 2011 had "the potential to result in a low pressure that generates strong winds and rain." One idea was that this might be a tropical system.

In general at this time, which featured the Mercury-Neptune opposition, the tropics came to life. The Gulf of Mexico saw Tropical Storm Don, the Atlantic saw a strengthening tropical wave which any day now may become Emily, and the eastern Pacific greeted Tropical Storm Eugene.

Although Eugene will pass somewhat near the Baja, its passage will be too far west of the Baja, and a few days too late to view it as a fulfillment of the May 2011 long-range weather forecast.

What weather did occur over the Baja then?

Over the last few days, particularly on the 30th and 31st of July, the Mexican weather bureau, Conagua, has reported an 80 percent chance of rain over the Baja, along with lightning, extremely hot temperatures, and high winds. The above map shows a green arrow over the Baja with the words "Viento Maximo" or maximum wind, fulfilling the long-range forecast for strong winds and rain.

General Weather Indications for August 2011

August 9-13, 2011 Long-range Forecast

August 16-18, 2011 Long-range Weather Forecast

Hurricane Beatriz Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Cyclone Yasi fulfills long-range prediction!

Tropical Storm Matthew Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Hurricane Earl and T.D. 10E Fulfill Long-range Forecasts!

Tropical Storm Alex Fulfills Long-range Prediction!

Bonnie Fulfills Long-range Forecast!

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

Politics, Lies, and Gold Medals

How many politicians does it take to change a light bulb?
Four. One to hold the bulb. Two to turn the ladder.
And one to raise taxes by a million dollars to buy the light bulb


What are the three most common lies in America?

The check is in the mail.
This is a safe investment. And...
I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you.

Did you hear about the Federal Reserve economist who won an olympic gold medal?

He was so proud he had it bronzed.

What is the origin of the word politics?

It's from the Greek word "poly" meaning many and "ticks" meaning blood-sucking insects.