Sunday, July 14, 2013

Hurricane Erick and Other Fulfilled Forecasts

Hurricane Erick fulfilled the long-range forecast for July 4-11, 2013 posted during the third week of June. The area in and around Acapulco, Mexico (99 west longitude and 16 north latitude) was identified as likely to spawn a tropical system at that time.

On July 4th, the National Hurricane Center announced that a new tropical depression, dubbed TD Five-E, formed south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, at 98 west longitude and 13 north latitude--the exact area mentioned in the long-range weather forecast. Tropical Depression Five-E later developed into Hurricane Erick. Below is the National Hurricane Center map for July 6th.
06 Hurricane Erick

The same forecast mentioned two other areas that might be affected by tropical systems: Tampico, Mexico, which lies along the Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook of July 6th informed of a surface trough of low pressure developing in the western and central Gulf that was expected to move slowly northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts. A day earlier, the Weather Channel reported that this tropical wave was bringing "a ton of rain to the northern Gulf Coast. Then on the 6th, "rainfall of 1 to 3 inches or more" was possible from the upper Texas Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle. At this time the low pressure system was named Invest 94-L, which sat roughly 250 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. This is exactly where Tampico, Mexico lies.

The last portion of the forecast defined the New England area as a candidate for a severe weather pattern or a tropical system. A severe weather pattern did develop over the area. On the 8th, Accuweather was warning of damaging storms from Maryland to Massachusetts. The Accuweather map below shows the flooding potential expected.
07 Virginia to New England

The National Weather Service began to issue warnings for heavy rain in Maine, locally heavy downpours and flash flooding for Massachusetts, Vermont, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Connecticut over the next few days.

Hurricane Season 2013 Part 1
West Coast Weather July-August 2013
Tropical Storm Andrea Fulfills Long-range Forecast!
California Water Shortage Part 2
California Water Shortage Spring 2013 Forecast
Timing the Relief for Drought-Stricken U.S. Plains
Testing Astrometeorology Part 2
Hurricane Sandy Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!
Testing Astrometeorology Part 1
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse
Long-range effects of the May 20, 2012 Solar Eclipse Part 2
Hurricane Season 2011 Forecast Results
Hurricane Risk-Management
New Weather Alternative Website
Overview of UK Winter 2012-13
The Winters of 2011-14
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative

Reasons for Unbelief

Aldous Huxley’s self-admitted reason for his unbelief. He says he had “motives” for not wanting to believe in God and so “assumed” he didn’t exist and “was able without any difficulty to find satisfying reasons for this assumption.” He confessed:

Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know. It is our will that decides how and upon what subjects we shall use our intelligence. Those who detect no meaning in the world generally do so because, for one reason or another, it suits their books that the world should be meaningless.

More recently, New York University Professor Thomas Nagel has said something similar: “I want atheism to be true and am made uneasy by the fact that some of the most intelligent and well-informed people I know are religious believers.” He continues: “It isn’t just that I don’t believe in God and, naturally, hope that I’m right in my belief. It’s that I hope there is no God! I don’t want there to be a God; I don’t want a universe like that.”

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