Click here for July 2006 Hurricane and Severe Weather Outlook.
These forecasts were calculated between November 16, 2005 and November 28, 2005.
July 16-18 Forecast:
The west central coast of Mexico near 106 West Longitude and 21 North Latitude shows the potential for severe weather which may be a tropical storm system.
Results
The low pressure system described below became Tropical Depression 5-E, and the Tropical Storm Daniel. It developed along the longitude I pinpointed but further south around 12 to 15 North Latitude instead of 21.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N106W WITHIN IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS. STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N108W 15N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N102W 16N97W...AND OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N94W.
Forecast
July 17-19 Forecast:
The east coast of Mexico also shows potential for tropical storm development. The area in question lies along 98 West and 23 North over the States of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.
Results
July 18, 2006
The following report from the Mexican Weather Bureau states that "a low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz...is bringing moderate to strong rain, lightning, and strong winds to the eastern states."
Canal de baja presión en el Occidente del Golfo de México, frente a las costas de Tamaulipas y Veracruz, se asocia a la onda tropical 16, ambos sistemas favorecerán nublados y lluvia de moderada a muy fuerte con tormentas eléctricas y vientos fuertes en los estados de la vertiente Oriental.
July 19, 2006
The following report from the Mexican Weather Bureau states "tropical wave #17 is bringing strong to intense rains to the States of Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Guerrero
La activa onda tropical N0. 17 ocasionará lluvias de muy fuertes a intensas en los estados de Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca y Guerrero.
July 17-19, 2006 Forecast:
On the U.S. mainland, northern and western Texas may see severe storms or tornadoes.
Results
No severe storms or tornadoes reported. The main event was triple-digit heat.
July 17-19, 2006 Forecast:
Further north, over Minnesota and Wisconsin, dangerous storms and damaging winds will be the attention-getter.
Results
July 18, 2006- Accuweather
For some, there will be good news, as a cold front slicing through the Midwest will break up the heat and humidity - at least temporarily. This front, however, will pack a cruel twist, in that it will bring the potential for severe storms with it from the western and central Great Lakes back into Iowa. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat to be on alert for; however, some storms will also have the capability of producing hail.
July 19, 2006- The Weather Channel
Midwest
Violent thunderstorms erupted in southern Minnesota Wednesday morning then raced off to the southeast toward northwestern Illinois. Once reaching Illinois the thunderstorms took a right turn and went south through western parts of the state. During the evening the storms turned again, this time to the southwest and took aim on St. Louis. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected overnight tonight. At highest risk are southeastern Minnesota, northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. Besides the threat of twisters, powerful winds, large hail and locally excessive downpours#up to five inches#are likely.
July 17-19, 2006 Forecast:
This potent weather system then continues toward the east over the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.
Results
July 17, 2006- Accuweather
The oppressive heat in parts of the Northeast will be eased a bit, but at a cost. A cold front coming down from Canada Tuesday will collide with the hot, humid air mass over the region. As this happens, the atmosphere will become unstable, and towering thunderstorm clouds will begin to build. A line of storms will march toward the East Coast during the day, but will likely not reach the big cities until later in the day or at night. The main threat with these storms will be from damaging winds and frequent lightning, but large hail and heavy downpours are also expected.
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