Sunday, September 18, 2011

Results For "What About Rain for Texas" Forecast

The August 22nd post "What About Rain For Texas" carried three basic long-range weather predictions for September. The first forecast was for a tropical system to be born in the Gulf of Mexico between September 2-4. This was fulfilled in Tropical Storm Lee. Click here to read.

The second forecast called for another tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico between September 7-9. This was fulfilled in Tropical Storm Nate, which you can read about here.

The third forecast for September 15-17 called for a good chance for Texas to receive the benefits of a southerly air flow and for eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas to experience severe weather.

Here are the results of this last forecast. On September 15th, Accuweather reported, "Clouds and much-needed rain will contribute to keeping temperatures even lower in some locations while providing relief to drought-sicken areas from southern Kansas to northern Texas."

On the 17th, in an Accuweather post entitled "Strong Storms Target Portions of Texas, Oklahoma," meteorologist Meghan Evans said these storms were due to an area of low pressure sitting over southeastern Colorado that was acting as a trigger for some violent thunderstorms. The clashing of dry air coming from the Desert Southwest and humid air surging out of the Gulf of Mexico was aiding in the development of these storms.

Notice that humid air was surging out of the Gulf as stated in the long-range forecast. The Accuweather map below shows the area in and around Texas, Oklahoma, and a bit of Arkansas that was still under a severe threat on the 18th.

18 Ok City, Dallas

Tropical Storm Nate Fulfills Long-range Weather Forecast!

Tropical Storm Lee Fulfills Long-range Weather Forecast

Hurricane Irene Closely Fulfills Long-range Forecast

New Weather Alternative Website

Tropical Storm Harvey Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!

Hurricane Beatriz Fulfills Long-range Weather Prediction!

Hurricane Season 2011 Baja, Mexico

Hurricane Risk-Management

Hurricane Season 2011 Predictions

Overview of UK Winter 2012-13

The Winters of 2011-14

Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010

Introduction to the Weather Alternative

How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made

Excerpts from Tidal Dynamics by Fergus J. Wood

Globalization and the Law of Unintended Consequences (Click link to read)


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