The second forecast called for another tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico between September 7-9. This was fulfilled in Tropical Storm Nate, which you can read about here.
The third forecast for September 15-17 called for a good chance for Texas to receive the benefits of a southerly air flow and for eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas to experience severe weather.
Here are the results of this last forecast. On September 15th, Accuweather reported, "Clouds and much-needed rain will contribute to keeping temperatures even lower in some locations while providing relief to drought-sicken areas from southern Kansas to northern Texas."
On the 17th, in an Accuweather post entitled "Strong Storms Target Portions of Texas, Oklahoma," meteorologist Meghan Evans said these storms were due to an area of low pressure sitting over southeastern Colorado that was acting as a trigger for some violent thunderstorms. The clashing of dry air coming from the Desert Southwest and humid air surging out of the Gulf of Mexico was aiding in the development of these storms.
Notice that humid air was surging out of the Gulf as stated in the long-range forecast. The Accuweather map below shows the area in and around Texas, Oklahoma, and a bit of Arkansas that was still under a severe threat on the 18th.
Tropical Storm Nate Fulfills Long-range Weather Forecast!
Tropical Storm Lee Fulfills Long-range Weather Forecast
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Hurricane Risk-Management
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The Winters of 2011-14
Fulfilled Long-range Forecasts for Hurricane Season 2010
Introduction to the Weather Alternative
How Long-Range Forecasts Are Made
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Globalization and the Law of Unintended Consequences (Click link to read)
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