Hurricane Season 2006

Work is under way on long-range weather forecasts for Hurricane Season 2006. This will take awhile before they are posted.

Another project to be posted is the forecast results of The Weather Alternative forecasts for October and November 2005.

Great Plains Blizzard of 2005

Click here for November Forecasts.

Graphics courtesy of Accuweather.com

Conventional forecasters are saying that the blizzard affecting the Northern Plains with over a foot of snow and sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph will go down is history as the Great Plains Blizzard of 2005.

The Weather Alternative posted the following forecast on September 9, 2005:

November 27-29, 2005:

Forecast: Increasing wind speeds and falling temperatures will be the story from the western Great Lakes, across the Mississippi Valley, and eastward as cold Canadian air pushes southward. This weather pattern will extend across the eastern Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic area etc...

Cold and Windy West

Click here for November Forecasts

Weather Graphic courtesy of Accuweather.

This Weather Alternative forecast was posted on September 9th, over 2 months ago.

November 27-29, 2005:

Forecast: A cool high pressure area will enter the West Coast. This drier air mass may ignite some storms and windy conditions in its attempt to establish itself over the region.

The Weather Channel reports that "strong, gusty winds are expected to gallop over the Southwest—especially the higher elevations—and the southern Great Basin. Strong Santa Ana winds are likely tonight and early tomorrow in Southern California."

The National Weather Service has issued a frost adivsory for parts of California:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

HANFORD CA

636 PM PST SAT NOV 26 2005

...FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR TONIGHT....A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARSKIES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

Midwest Blast

Click here for November Forecasts.

Graphics courtesy of Accuweather.com

Here's another Weather Alternative forecast that was posted back on September 9, 2005:

November 21-24, 2005:
Forecast: This promises to be a very active period for the Plains. The necessary ingredients to produce blizzard-like conditions seem to be present over the Northern Tier States.

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm warnings for the Great Lakes area.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

MARQUETTE MI 519 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE...A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...GENERATING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYNIGHT. VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE THANKSGIVINGHOLIDAY.

Approaching East Coast Storm

Click here for November Forecasts

Graphics courtesy of Accuweather.com

As shown above, conventional forecasters are predicting a major East Coast storm Monday and Tuesday, November 21-22, 2005.

Accuweather states "Adverse weather with the big East Coast storm will begin in the Southeast late Sunday and early Monday before spreading quickly through the Eastern Seaboard to New York and New England Monday through early Tuesday... Much of Florida and Georgia through the coastal plain of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia will have a threat of severe local thunderstorms, including hail, high winds and even isolated tornadoes... Another factor will be that of high winds, especially coastal winds, as the storm spins up dramatically late Monday through Tuesday. New England will bear the brunt of coastal winds along with tide and wave action, but there will be strong winds well inland at this time too. As if these were not enough, there will be a wintry side to the storm, too. Cold air will pour into the Midwest Monday night and Tuesday.

(Bold print added by The Weather Alternative)

On September 9th of this year, The Weather Alternative posted forecasts for November 2005. The East Coast storm and the cold air entering the Midwest were mentioned in these forecasts although the timing seems to be a day or so off.

For example, the cold air to pour into the Midwest on the 21st and 22nd was mentioned in the November 19-20 forecast:

"Another bout of blustery weather and lower temperatures is shown for the Mississippi Valley and Eastern U.S. "

The East Coast storm scheduled for Monday and Tuesday November 21-22 was specified in The Weather Alternative forecast for November 23-24:

"The clash between high and low pressure systems will focus on the coastal areas of Virginia and North Carolina. High winds or severe storms are likely to hit this area. This may be part of a larger weather pattern that affects the Mid-Atlantic area."

Tropical Storm Gamma and Midwest Storm

Click here for November Forecasts.

Here are some updates on The Weather Alternative's November Forecasts. These were prepared between August 21, 2005 and September 6, 2005.

November 12-15, 2005:
Forecast: It seems that a tropical weather system, be it a tropical wave, storm etc., or other severe weather pattern will affect Hispañola.

As can be seen from the above map, Tropical Depression 27 (soon to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma) is forecast to pass close to Hispañola over the next few days.

Another Weather Alternative forecast that's shaping up is the following:

November 14-17, 2005:
Forecast: The incursion of colder air over the eastern half of the country and consequent tumbling temperatures will necessitate frost and freeze advisories over the region. The 16th and 17th appear to be high points when cold air and windy conditions will manifest over the Mississippi Valley area.

The Weather Channel reports the following:

A strong cold front will smash into the South tomorrow, and with it, some very dangerous weather. While scattered showers and storms will speckle much of the South, nasty thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and violent tornadoes will sweep eastward from the eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas across the Mississippi Valley during the daylight hours and on eastward during the evening. At highest risk for potentially deadly storms are eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. Behind the front, gusty winds will hurl colder air southward toward the Texas Gulf Coast and eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

West Coast and Midwest Storms

Click here for November Forecasts

The Weather Alternative forecasts for November 2005 were prepared between August 21, 2005 and September 6, 2005.

Here's an update on two forecasts for November 5-7, 2005.

Forecast: Another round of storms batters the West Coast States. Moist, warm air finds its way over the region producing "caffeinated" storms over the Intermountain West.

Today the Weather Channel reported "Another Pacific storm will take aim on the Pacific Northwest today resulting in increasing winds, rain and snow. This system is the latest, in a series of storms, to batter the Pacific Northwest and this trend will continue next week. A flood watch in effect for today and through much of Sunday for northwestern Oregon including the Willamette Valley."

Forecast: As warm, moist air is funneled northward over the Plains, colder, drier air rushes southward over the Mississippi Valley. The inevitable result is that storms will erupt over both these areas as the colder air collides with this southerly invasion. Watch, in particular, for strong storms over the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Gusty winds usually accompany this pattern.

Today Accuweather related the following: "Cold air blasting in from the northern Plains is colliding with warm, moist air from the South, creating an explosive, fast-moving band of thunderstorms that will pummel the Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes today. The region will experience a line of strong storms with high winds, locally heavy rainfall, and possibility of hail. Scattered power outages are possible due to the high winds and damage caused by the storms."

Coastal Storm

Click here for October Forecasts

Click here for November Forecasts

The Weather Alternative forecast for October 28-30, 2005 was as follows:

As cold air pushes through the Northeast US, storm conditions will develop over Maryland, Delaware, and surrounding States.

Today The Weather Channel reported:
(Bold print added by The Weather Alternative)

While the weekend starts off frosty in the Mid-Atlantic, a showery and cold upper-level low and a developing coastal storm, heading northeastward from east of the Outer Banks, will bring some rain and wet snow to parts of New England overnight and Saturday.

Tropical Depression 25/Tropical Storm Alpha

Click here for October Forecasts

Click here for November Forecasts



The Weather Alternative forecast for October 25-26, 2005, posted on October 3, 2005, warned that "The inhabitants the Dominican Republic should prepare for possible tropical storm or hurricane passage as the area just south of there (69W/17N) has the potential to attract a low pressure system."

The National Weather Service expects TD 25 to become Tropical Storm Alpha later today.

Their Tropical Depression Twenty-five Advisory Number 1 forecasts the following for Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti):

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Where is Wilma headed?

Click here for October Forecasts

Click here for November Forecasts




Hurricane Wilma

In a recent post entitled Some October Forecasts, I mentioned "Tropical storm formation seems likely north of Haiti near 72 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude. The island itself should feel the effects of tropical downpours at this time."

MSNBC reported today that "Hurricane Wilma triggered mudslides that killed up to 10 people in Haiti as the season’s record-tying 21st storm strengthened rapidly on Tuesday and headed for the Gulf of Mexico on a path toward storm-weary Florida."

Conventional forecasters foresee Wilma hitting southern or central Florida by this weekend. This Saturday, the 22nd, shows important planetary alignements between the Sun and Jupiter, and Mercury and Mars. The recent Lunar Eclipse of October 17th focuses some of these energies over the Florida Panhandle. This may be an indication where Wilma will make landfall.

Some October Forecasts

Click here for long-range forecasts for November 2005.


October 13-15, 2005
A strong cold front will push across the eastern US lowering temperatures and exciting gusty winds. There is a possibility that the front will interact with a tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico around 84 West Longitude and 25 North Latitude threatening the Florida Panhandle and eastern Gulf States.
The Mississippi Valley will see stormy conditions while the West Coast gets a shot of colder air and windy weather that moves into the Great Basin.


October 14-15, 2005
A developing storm will take aim on the New England area as moisture is drawn up from the south and interacts with colder Canadian air.
Tropical moisture heads toward the Yucatan of Mexico resulting in heavy rain.


October 15-18, 2005
Tropical storm formation or passage is indicated in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico around 94 West Longitude and 26 North Latitude. Long-range forecast models show that the coastal areas of eastern Texas and western Louisiana will most likely feel the effects of this tropical influence.
Extreme southern Mexico, around the State of Oaxaca should experience heavy rains due to an influx of tropical moisture.
Tropical storm formation seems likely north of Haiti near 72 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude. The island itself should feel the effects of tropical downpours at this time.


October 20-21, 2005
Relative humidities will increase over the Mississippi Valley and eastward. This may result in fog potential or lower barometer resulting in precipitation.
The potential for tropical downpours is indicated over the southern Mexican State of Chiapas.


October 22-23, 2005
What appears to be a powerful storm system will leave its mark over the Four Corners region of the Rockies and Nevada as it brings gusty winds and rain to the region.


October 25-26, 2005
The inhabitants the Dominican Republic should prepare for possible tropical storm or hurricane passage as the area just south of there (69W/17N) has the potential to attract a low pressure system.
In the eastern Pacific, the area in and around 120 West Longitude and 15 North Latitude (about 850 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas) is another potential area for hurricane or tropical storm genesis.


October 28-30, 2005
As cold air pushes through the Northeast US, storm conditions will develop over Maryland, Delaware, and surrounding States.

Hurricane Otis

Click here for November 2005 long-range weather forecasts.


Hurricane Otis

Following is a forecast published in the September 2005 issue of El Quinto Sol, a Mexican magazine.


October 1-3, 2005:
Increasing temperatures disrupt atmospheric conditions. The target area is Northwest Mexico and the Gulf of California where there may even be some tropical activity or at least noticeable storms.

This is now being fulfilled in Hurricane Otis, which, according to the National Weather Service "is expected to steer WNW around a deep layered ridge eventually turning north and crossing the Central Baja Peninsula."

The Weather Alternative

From alternative music and media to alternative medicine, we're increasingly offered nontraditional replacements to mainstream methods, institutions and practices. Although conventional approaches serve a purpose, growing awareness of their limitations and flaws impel men to explore along the fringe for new, and in some cases, ancient solutions.

So why not alternative weather forecasts? Present day orthodox forecast techniques lack the ability to accurately predict the weather beyond three or four days. Even with the assistance of the largest weather computer in the world, whose lightning-fast calculations approach about 400 million per second, the results of its three-day forecasts are speculative; its six to seven day forecasts are worthless. According to conventional weather forecasters, this is due to the complexity of atmospheric forces and processes.

For example, on September 19, 2002 Tropical Storm Isidore roamed off the southwestern coast of Cuba. Forecasters were pretty confident its trajectory would take it over the island and then out into the waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico. After that, it was anybody’s guess. One forecaster commented after noticing that computer models showed so much disagreement that it was time to dust off the chaos butterflies of MIT Professor Ed Lorenz. He was referring to the discovery Lorenz made while working with computer-simulated weather. Lorenz found that even a very slight alteration of the original variables used in his computations produced drastically different “weather” results. This small change in input resulting in a huge change in output was termed the “butterfly effect” since something as small as the wind produced by a butterfly’s flapping wings could theoretically contribute to the production of a hurricane somewhere in the world.

What some scientists see as complexity, however, might actually be viewed as simplicity when the frame of reference is changed. Johannes Kepler, the 17th century astronomer and discoverer of the planetary laws of motion, experimented with what today would be considered an alternative forecast method that made long-range weather forecasts possible. Kepler observed that the angular relationships among the planets coincided with the formation of weather systems here on Earth that, in turn, produced storms, droughts, floods, etc. His first brush with fame came not because of his breakthrough regarding the planetary laws of motion but because of his accurate long-range weather forecast of the severe winter that put Styermark, Germany on ice in 1593. Since the planets move in repetitive cycles that can be known beforehand, he reasoned, the weather induced by them can also be known beforehand.

We can all see the advantages that such predictions could have. Accurate long-range weather forecasts would bring enormous benefits to the weather derivatives market, agriculture, transportation, construction, and other industries, not to mention the lives that could be saved through advance knowledge of severe weather conditions.

The Weather Alternative's forecast system is based on Kepler's work. Although no forecast method, be it conventional or alternative, can claim 100 percent accuracy, it is interesting to note the dependability this method offers.

More on Rita's Path

Hurricane Rita

On September 21st, I posted the following:

The Weather Alternative's forecasts are based on planetary cycles. One forecast model shows the potential for increased wind velocities and storm conditions around September 24, 2005 at 88 West Longitude and 30 North Latitude. This is roughly the area around Mobile, Alabama. With Rita now churning in the Gulf of Mexico, this may be an indication of where she makes landfall. Orthodox forecasters, at present, are showing possible landfall further west along the Texas Gulf Coast.

The aforementioned forecast model did not show Hurricane Rita's point of landfall, but it certainly did bring increased wind velocities and storm conditions around the Moblie, Alabama area on the 24th. Here's what the National Weather Service had to say:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MOBILE AL
1110 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 400 PM TODAY...

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOODWATCH THROUGH SUNDAY...

SPIRAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RITA SLOWS AND BEGINS TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE EAST OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

Rita's Path?

The Weather Alternative's forecasts are based on planetary cycles. One forecast model shows the potential for increased wind velocities and storm conditions around September 24, 2005 at 88 West Longitude and 30 North Latitude. This is roughly the area around Mobile, Alabama. With Rita now churning in the Gulf of Mexico, this may be an indication of where she makes landfall. Orthodox forecasters, at present, are showing possible landfall further west along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Long-Range Weather Forecasts November 2005

These forecasts were compiled between August 21, 2005 and September 6, 2005.


Atlantic

November 5-7, 2005:

Forecast: Tropical storm and/or hurricane development or passage is imminent around 72 West Longitude and 22 North Latitude. This is roughly 160 miles north of Haiti and somewhat southwest of the Bahamas. It may be a broad weather pattern that affects Hispanola and/or south of it.


November 5-6, 2005:

Forecast: The potential for tropical storm formation is indicated around 50 West Longitude and 8 North Latitude.


November 20-21, 2005:

Forecast: Tropical activity possible in and around 50 West Longitude and 8 North Latitude.


November 22-24, 2005:

Forecast: Tropical storm or hurricane formation is likely along 63 West Longitude and 20 North Latitude. This lies about 265 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.


Caribbean

November 1-2, 2005:

Forecast: Watch for heavy rains or a tropical system over area comprising Jamaica and eastern Cuba.


November 12-15, 2005:

Forecast: It seems that a tropical weather system, be it a tropical wave, storm etc., or other severe weather pattern will affect Hispañola.


November 23-24, 2005:

Forecast: Tropical storm or heavy rains for the area around Jamaica and eastern Cuba.


U.S. Mainland

November 2-4, 2005:

Forecast: A cold Canadian air mass will sink southward over the northern Plains States with the potenial for triggering storms over the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa.


November 2-4, 2005:

Forecast: A chilly air mass from northern regions will descend over the Northeast U.S. and generate wet and soggy conditions as it interacts with a moisture already in place.


November 3-5, 2005:

Forecast: A strong cold front will push into the West Coast area bringing rain and colder temperatures as it progresses through the Intermountain West.
The Rockies will eventually feel the brunt of this system especially over Utah and Colorado.

November 5-7, 2005:

Forecast: Another round of storms batters the West Coast States. Moist, warm air finds its way over the region producing "caffeinated" storms over the Intermountain West.

Forecast: As warm, moist air is funneled northward over the Plains, colder, drier air rushes southward over the Mississippi Valley. The inevitable result is that storms will erupt over both these areas as the colder air collides with this southerly invasion. Watch, in particular, for strong storms over the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Gusty winds usually accompany this pattern.


Forecast: Cold and windy conditions, originating in the central U.S., rush eastward toward the eastern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.


Forecast: New England may be dealing with a weather phenomenon all its own. One forecast model indicates a storm system south of Maine, roughly at the latitude of Washington DC, that heads northward toward New England. This may represent a Nor’easter or a tropical system.

November 11-13, 2005:

Forecast: Cool and fair conditions are shown for the eastern portion of the country most likely courtesy of a high pressure system over Canada or the Great Lakes area.

November 13-15, 2005:

Forecast: Rising temperatures over the Intermountain West may erupt in thunderstorms.


November 14-17, 2005:

Forecast: The incursion of colder air over the eastern half of the country and consequent tumbling temperatures will necessitate frost and feeze advisories over the region. The 16th and 17th appear to be high points when cold air and windy conditions will manifest over the Mississippi Valley area.


November 15-17, 2005:

Forecast: An active weather pattern is promised for the Rockies as moisture is drawn up from the Gulf of California sparking severe thunderstorms over Arizona, Utah, and surrounding areas.


November 17-18, 2005:

Forecast: A robust weather system hits the West Coast as atmospheric conditions deteriorate resulting in a round of severe weather.


Forecast: Strong storms will bully the Plains States as conflicting atmospheric currents lay into each other.


November 19-20, 2005:

Forecast: Another bout of blustery weather and lower temperatures is shown for the Mississippi Valley and eastern U.S.


November 20-22, 2005:

Forecast: Another vigorous storm system will intensify over the West Coast States resulting in cold and wet conditions.


November 21-24, 2005:

Forecast: This promises to be a very active period for the Plains. The necessary ingredients to produce blizzard-like conditions seem to be present over the Northern Tier States.


November 23-25, 2005:

Forecast: Chilly air and blustery winds will whip the Rockies calling for high wind and winter storm warnings over the region.

November 23-24, 2005:

Forecast: The clash between high and low pressure systems will focus on the coastal areas of Virginia and North Carolina. High winds or severe storms are likely to hit this area. This may be part of a larger weather pattern that affects the Mid-Atlantic area.


November 27-29, 2005:

Forecast: A cool high pressure area will enter the West Coast. This drier air mass may ignite some storms and windy conditions in its attempt to establish itself over the region.


Forecast: Increasing wind speeds and falling temperatures will be the story from the western Great Lakes, across the Mississippi Valley, and eastward as cold Canadian air pushes southward. This weather pattern will extend across the eastern Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic area etc. Inclement weather is also shown over northwest Texas.

Long-Range Weather Forecasts

Coming Soon! Long-range weather forecasts for November 2005 will soon be posted on The Weather Alternative.

Scoreboard August 2005: 88 % Accuracy

Here are the results of the long-range weather forecasts for August 2005. These forecasts were prepared at the end of July 2005.



Forecast
August 4-5, 2005:

Showers are indicated over eastern Maine and Nova Scotia.

Results
Aug 4, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

As the cold front infiltrates northern New England and Upstate New York on Friday, high temperatures will reach into the 90s...Scattered thunderstorms will erupt out ahead of the front.

Aug 5, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
After a hot, muggy and in some cases thundery Friday from New England to Virginia, the passing cold front will bring less humid air...


Forecast
August 5-6, 2005:

1) Some unsettled weather is shown over the Great Basin area.
2) Warm and fair throughout the Mississippi Valley area.
3) Warm conditions that may break out in thunderstorms over New York State and surrounding area.

Results
Aug 5, 2005: (National Weather Service)

1) The NWS reported flash flood warnings for Utah and Nevada.

Aug 5, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
2) Except for scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering from the Ohio River and southern Missouri southward, most of the Midwest will enjoy a rain-free weekend.

Aug 5, 2005: (National Weathe Service)
3) ...HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON...


Forecast

August 8-9, 2005:
1) Front setting off thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest.
2) Possible tropical storm and/or hurricane formation over the Lesser Antilles (61 West/16 North)

Results

Aug 8, 2005: (National Weather Service)
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
(The Weather Channel)
Gusty afternoon winds will prevail along the immediate coast from the Olympic Peninsula to the Mexican border.

Aug 8, 2005: (National Weather Service)
2) CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 19N...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N E OF 65W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE E OF THE LEEWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

Forecast
August 9-11, 2005:
1) A stormy period is indicated for the Rockies. The weather pattern then continues over the Plains.
2) Storms are on the increase over New England.

Results
Aug 10, 2005: (National Weather Service)
1) RIVERTON WY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING...THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

1) COLORADO...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS.

(The Weather Channel)
1) The Northern Plains will be stormy through the early morning hours Thursday as a thunderstorm complex will make its way across Nebraska and into the Missouri River Valley. The primary threat with this stormy weather will be hail and wind, however the isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Aug 9, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
2) Showers and thunderstorms will threaten areas today from the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic and into New England.

Forecast
August 12-14, 2005:
1) Windy conditions affect the Pacific Northwest as a front pushes through.
2) Breezy to windy conditions and most likely cooler temps affect the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains.
3) Windy weather is also shown for the Mid-Atlantic region through New England.

Results
Aug 11, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
1 & 2) ...the accompanying low humidity and locally gusty winds are the perfect enablers for the many wildfires raging in parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana...From the Rockies eastward, cool Canadian high pressure will slide southward Friday (Aug 12) and over the weekend...clouds showers will add to the chill. High temperatures in Cheyenne and Denver could be in the 50s Saturday (Aug 13).

Aug 11, 2005: (National Weather Service)
3)...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
AFFECT SOUTHWEST MAINE THROUGH 415 PM..

Aug 12, 2005: (National Weather Service)
3)...TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...THIS STORM IS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

Aug 13, 2005: (National Weather Service)
3) UPTON NY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND WILL USHER HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...

Forecast
August 16-18, 2005:
1) Warmer conditions are shown for the Plains as a southerly airflow kicks in. If enough moisture is available, thunderstorms will ensue.
2) Rising temperatures over the Northeast and New England with the potential to trigger thunderstorms.

Results
Aug 17, 2005: (Accuweather)
1) Across the southern Plains, a warm, southerly wind will blow, allowing temperatures to heat up into the 90s in most places.

Aug 16, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
2) The weekend heat in the Northeast is now just a memory as much more comfortable air is in place. Highs across much of the region will remain in the 70s today.

Forecast
August 17-19, 2005:
A warm period is shown for the West Coast and Great Basin areas.

Results
Aug 18, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
Temperatures for the Pacific Coast return to average as highs will climb back into the 70s for Seattle and low 80s for Portland.

Aug 19, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
High pressure will push into the Pacific Northwest allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s and 90s from Seattle to down to Medford and east to Boise. The Idaho Panhandle will see temperatures climb into the 90s...

Forecast
August 20-22, 2005:
Another stormy period is indicated for New England. There is a chance that this could be a tropical system.

Results
August 21, 2005: (National Weather Service)
...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...THESE STORMS MAY DEPOSIT UP TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 40 MINUTES...

TAUNTON MA...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM...FRAMINGHAM TO...PUTNAM TO...MANSFIELD...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

Forecast
August 24-28, 2005:
1) A strong cold front will enter the Pacific Northwest and set off storms as the front advances through the Great Basin area.

Results
August 27, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and showers to parts of the Pacific Northwest late in the weekend (Sunday Aug 28) into Monday. Seattle and Portland which have consistently peaked in the mid 80s and upper80s/low 90s for much of this month will see their thermomters dip into the 60s and 70s as we head into early next week.

2) The potential for tropical storm development is shown in and around 117 West Longitude and 20 North Latitude. This lies in the eastern Pacific about 560 miles southwest of the tip of Baja California.

Results
August 27, 2005: (National Weather Service)
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 112.6W AT 27/1500
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT...

August 28, 2005: (National Weather Service)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 115.5W...OR 480 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 28/1500 UTC

3) Tropical storm development is likely near 142 West Longitude and 18 North Latitude.

Results
August 24-28, 2005:
No Tropical storm development reported.

4) Texas and the Plains will see an active weather pattern at this time resulting in storms producing wind, hail, and possible tornadoes.

Results
August 25, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
The Midwest will experience more active storms through Friday (Aug 26). Flood watches are in effect for parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. Parts of Kansas received six to nine inches of rain on Wednesday night (24th) into early Thursday (25th). More rain and thunderstorms are likely in these areas as a vigorous cold front approaches from the northern Plains overnight into Friday. This cold front will offer widespread gusty thunderstorms for the region with travel and air port headaches due to the storms.

5) Moisture is also drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico over the Gulf Coast States of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. As the moisture surges northward toward the Central Mississippi Valley, storms will result.

Results
August 25, 2005: (National Weather Service)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
.A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

August 25, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
Stormy weather is in store from the Plains to the mid and upper Mississippi Valleys as several disturbances impact the region...some of the thunderstorm may become strong to severe. In addition, a disturbance rolling from the central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley will bring locally heavy rainfall to areas from eastern Kansas through Missouri.

6) A front through the Mid-Atlantic region will result in storms around the 26th.

Results
August 25, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
The cold front will offer more chances for storms on Saturday (27th) in western sections and then region wide on Sunday (28th)

August 27, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
...showers and some embedded thunderstorms will work their way eastward into western Virginia, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, and southwestern New York...

7) The Northeast will experience a severe weather pattern that may be tropical in nature. One model shows a possible storm system off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina heading northward to the New York area.

Results
August 27, 2005: (Accuweather)
As high pressure over New England shifts east, a more tropical air mass will move into the Northeast this weekend. Residents of the mid-Atlantic will certainly notice a difference today as it will be more muggy than the previous week. In fact, dewpoints will climb into the middle to upper 60s in many locations this afternoon. Tomorrow will feel even worse, with dewpoints at the 70 degree mark or higher as far north as southern New England.

August 27, 2005: (National Weather Service)
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WILL CAUSE THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FROM TUESDAY (30th) THROUGH WEDNESDAY (31st)...WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD ALSO HAVE SOME REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

8) Puerto Rico may find itself in the path of a tropical storm or hurricane as a number of indicators zero in on the area between 64-66 West Longitude and 17-18 North Latitude.

Results
August 26, 2005: (National Weather Service)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN A POSITION TO PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE REGION FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THESE STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME LOW LYING FLOODING TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...SOME PEA SIZED HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Forecast
August 30-31, 2005:
1) A weather system will bring cool, dry air to the West Coast and Rockies.
2) The same is indicated for the Plains.
3) Fair and warm conditions are shown for the Mississippi Valley area.

Results
August 29, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
1) A cold front sweeping eastward across the northwest could bring some scattered showers to parts Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana. This same front will also usher in much cooler air to the above mentioned areas...A cold front should push through the northern Rocky Mountains during the day Tuesday (30th) producing an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms over Montana and Wyoming. After that front clears the western third of the country high pressure should take over producing glorious weather through the end of the week.

August 29, 2005 (The Weather Channel)
2) ...most of the Midwest should have a nice day Tuesday (30th). A cold front is forecast to push out of the Rocky Mountains through the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures should run 5 to 10 degrees below average through midweek along the Canadian border with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. Farther south readings should be closer to average with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

August 30, 2005 (National Weather Service)
3) TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVED INLAND BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVERNIGHT. OVER THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE COMMON...TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP
THE REGION DRY AND MILD...AND BLOCK REMNANTS OF KATRINA FROM REACHING THE AREA.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ACROSS THE REGION...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN HURRICANE KATRINA TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

More Thoughts on Katrina´s Path

The Weather Alternative forecast for August 24-28, 2005 stated ¨The Northeast will experience a severe weather pattern that may be tropical in nature. One model shows a possible storm system off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina heading northward to the New York area.¨

In a recent post entitled Katrina´s Path, I explored the possibility of Katrina´s arrival over the Northeast as a fulfillment of the aforementioned forecast. There seems to be another possibility since Katrina won´t make it there within the forecast timeframe.

Conventional forecasters are now showing that a tropical air mass will move into the Northeast producing muggy conditions as far north as New England. A stalled cold front over New York will interact with this tropical air mass triggering showers and storms--some with heavy downpours.


Weather map courtesy of Accuweather

Tropical Depression 9-E

The National Weather Service has issued its first forecast advisory on Tropical Depression 9-E. It is presently located at 106.3 West Longitude and 17.2 North Latitude. By August 27th, as can be seen from the map below, TD 9-E is forcast to move very near the coordinates mentioned in the Weather Alternative forecast for August 24-28, 2005. This forecast stated "The potential for tropical storm development is shown in and around 117 West Longitude and 20 North Latitude. This lies in the eastern Pacific about 560 miles southwest of the tip of Baja California." This forecast was prepared at the end of July 2005.


Weather map courtesy of the National Weather Service

Katrina's Path?

Conventional forecasters are now toying with the possibility that Tropical Storm Katrina might make it to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in a few days. If this happens, it would be a fulfillment of the Weather Atlernative's forecast for Aug 24-28, 2005 that stated "The Northeast will experience a severe weather pattern that may be tropical in nature. One model shows a possible storm system off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina heading northward to the New York area." This forecast was prepared at the end of July 2005.


Weather grapic courtesy of Accuweather.

Scoreboard April-July 2005

Although no forecast method, be it conventional or alternative, can claim 100 percent accuracy, the Weather Alternative's system allows us to look much further into the future than today's conventional methods. How accurate have the Weather Alternative forecasts been so far? Here are some approximate scores for the long-range forecasts posted so far on this blog.

The Best and Worst of April's Weather: 82%
June 2005 Forecasts: 81%
July 2005 Mainland US: 64%
July 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes: 42%
July 2005 Pacific Hurricanes: 25%
July 2005Carribean Hurricanes: 50%

Forecast for the US mainland have been far more successful than hurricane predicitions for the open oceans due to more experience with North American weather patterns.

August 2005 Forecasts

These forecasts were prepared between July 22 and August 2, 2005.


August 4-5, 2005:
Showers are indicated over eastern Maine and Nova Scotia.


August 5-6, 2005:
Some unsettled weather is shown over the Great Basin area.
Warm and fair throughout the Mississippi Valley area.
Warm conditions that may break out in thunderstorms over New York State and surrounding area.


August 8-9, 2005:
Front setting off thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest.
Possible tropical storm and/or hurricane formation over the Lesser Antilles (61 West/16 North)


August 9-11, 2005:
A stormy period is indicated for the Rockies. The weather pattern then continues over the Plains.
Storms are on the increase over New England.


August 12-14, 2005:
Windy conditions affect the Pacific Northwest as a front pushes through.
Breezy to windy conditions and most likely cooler temps affect the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains.
Windy weather is also shown for the Mid-Atlantic region through New England.

August 16-18, 2005:
Warmer conditions are shown for the Plains as a southerly airflow kicks in. If enough moisture is available, thunderstorms will ensue.
Rising temperatures over the Northeast and New England with the potential to trigger thunderstorms.


August 17-19, 2005:
A warm period is shown for the West Coast and Great Basin areas.

August 20-22, 2005:
Another stormy period is indicated for New England. There is a chance that this could be a tropical system.


August 24-28, 2005:
A strong cold front will enter the Pacific Northwest and set off storms as the front advances through the Great Basin area.
The potential for tropical storm development is shown in and around 117 West Longitude and 20 North Latitude. This lies in the eastern Pacific about 560 miles southwest of the tip of Baja California.
Tropical storm development is likely near 142 West Longitude and 18 North Latitude.
Texas and the Plains will see an active weather pattern at this time resulting in storms producing wind, hail, and possible tornadoes.
Moisture is also drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico over the Gulf Coast States of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. As the moisture surges northward toward the Central Mississippi Valley, storms will result.
A front through th Mid-Atlantic region will result in storms around the 26th.
The Northeast will experience a severe weather pattern that may be tropical in nature. One model shows a possible storm system off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina heading northward to the New York area.
Puerto Rico may find itself in the path of a tropical storm or hurricane as a number of indicators zero in on the area between 64-66 West Longitude and 17-18 North Latitude.

August 30-31, 2005:
A weather system will bring cool, dry air to the West Coast and Rockies. The same is indicated for the Plains. Fair and warm conditions are shown for the Mississippi Valley area.

The Weather Alternative

New! July 2005 Hurricane Outlook

June 2005 forecast results are now being posted. Check them out below!

Tropical Storm Arlene predicted over one month beforehand!

From alternative music and media to alternative medicine, we're increasingly offered nontraditional replacements to mainstream methods, institutions and practices. Although conventional approaches serve a purpose, growing awareness of their limitations and flaws impel men to explore along the fringe for new, and in some cases, ancient solutions.

So why not alternative weather forecasts? Present day orthodox forecast techniques lack the ability to accurately predict the weather beyond three or four days. Even with the assistance of the largest weather computer in the world, whose lightning-fast calculations approach about 400 million per second, the results of its three-day forecasts are speculative; its six to seven day forecasts are worthless. According to conventional weather forecasters, this is due to the complexity of atmospheric forces and processes.

For example, on September 19, 2002 Tropical Storm Isidore roamed off the southwestern coast of Cuba. Forecasters were pretty confident its trajectory would take it over the island and then out into the waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico. After that, it was anybody’s guess. One forecaster commented after noticing that computer models showed so much disagreement that it was time to dust off the chaos butterflies of MIT Professor Ed Lorenz. He was referring to the discovery Lorenz made while working with computer-simulated weather. Lorenz found that even a very slight alteration of the original variables used in his computations produced drastically different “weather” results. This small change in input resulting in a huge change in output was termed the “butterfly effect” since something as small as the wind produced by a butterfly’s flapping wings could theoretically contribute to the production of a hurricane somewhere in the world.

What some scientists see as complexity, however, might actually be viewed as simplicity when the frame of reference is changed. Johannes Kepler, the 17th century astronomer and discoverer of the planetary laws of motion, experimented with what today would be considered an alternative forecast method that made long-range weather forecasts possible. Kepler observed that the angular relationships among the planets coincided with the formation of weather systems here on Earth that, in turn, produced storms, droughts, floods, etc. His first brush with fame came not because of his breakthrough regarding the planetary laws of motion but because of his accurate long-range weather forecast of the severe winter that put Styermark, Germany on ice in 1593. Since the planets move in repetitive cycles that can be known beforehand, he reasoned, the weather induced by them can also be known beforehand.

We can all see the advantages that such predictions could have. Accurate long-range weather forecasts would bring enormous benefits to the weather derivatives market, agriculture, transportation, construction, and other industries, not to mention the lives that could be saved through advance knowledge of severe weather conditions.

The Weather Alternative's forecast system is based on Kepler's work. Although no forecast method, be it conventional or alternative, can claim 100 percent accuracy, it is interesting to note the dependability this method offers.

Tropical Storm Arlene

This Forecast was prepared at the end of April 2005 over a month before Arlene formed.

Forecast

June 7-11, 2005:

Two areas slated for severe weather may actually indicate tropical storm or hurricane formation since June begins hurricane season. The first is the area around Brownsville, Texas and the other lies in the southeastern Gulf at around 86 West longitude and 24 North latitude.

Results

June 8, 2005 (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z WED JUN 08 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

June 10, 2005 (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...

June 2005 Forecast Results

These forecasts were prepared at the end of April 2005.

Forecast

June 29, 2005:

A cold front across New England triggers precipitation.

Results

June 28: (The Weather Channel)
Northeast
Scattered showers and storms will pockmark the Northeast tomorrow as moisture from the Deep South slathers the region.

June 29: (The Weather Channel)
Northeast
The stormy day experienced by many on Wednesday (June 29) will continue on into Thursday in some form or another. A cold front will move north to south across the region throughout the day. As it clashes with a deep tropical moisture feed showers and storm will spark, primarily along the coast, from the Megalopolis to the Delmarva Peninsula.

Forecast

June 25-27, 2005:

High heat and storms containing dangerous winds, hail, and/or tornadoes focus on eastern Texas, the ArkLaTex region, and northward.

Results

High heat plagued the area.No dangerous storms reported over eastern Texas or the ArkLaTex region. Torrential rains were reported farther to the north over Iowa and Wisconsin. See below.

June 25: (The Weather Channel)
Areas from Texas through the Mississippi Valley will continue to deal with hot temperatures and virtually no rainfall on Saturday or through the weekend for that matter.
Training thunderstorms along a line from Sioux City, Iowa towards Madison, Wisc. produced torrential rainfall late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Radar-estimated rainfall shows that portions along the northern tier of Iowa picked up anywhere from 3" to possibly more than 8" of rain obviously resulting in road and field flooding.

June 27: (The Weather Channel)
The Mississippi River will continue to be a demarcation line in the South tomorrow: scattered showers and thunderstorms to the east, hot and dusty to the west.


Forecast

June 24-27, 2005:

A lower range of temperatures and atmospheric disturbances affect the western US through the Great Basin area then continue eastward over the Rockies.

Results

June 23:


Weather Map courtesy of Accuweather.com

June 25: (The Weather Channel)
West
A number of disturbances aloft will trigger scattered thunderstorms across much of the West for a while. Look for a few afternoon showers over parts of western sections of Washington and Oregon today. Lightning will continue to threaten more fires. Temperatures will be average or slightly below over the weekend and 5 to 15 degrees below average in the Pacific Northwest by Monday.

June 26: (The Weather Channel)
West
The upper-level disturbance that has brought severe thunderstorms to the northern and central Rockies will bring more thunderstorms today over the northern Rockies. Widely scattered thunderstorms will also redevelop over the Four Corners' states.

Forecast

June 24-27, 2005:
A La Niña event may become apparent around this time.

Results


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
June 9, 2005

Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the northern summer and fall (June-November) 2005.

Forecast

June 24-27, 2005:

A major storm system affects the Northeast and New England. Most likely a good amount of moisture is drawn northward triggering storms and rain. A tropical system cannot be ruled out. In some cases, the initial reaction appears in the form of a strong high pressure system bringing high heat that then erupts in storms.

Results

No "major storm" reported, but high heat and tropical moisture were evident.

June 25: (The Weather Channel)
Northeast
A cold front will sluggishly approach the Northeast today out of Canada however it’s not the cool air behind the front that we’ll be talking about but rather the high heat and humidity ahead of the front that will be the big story. Westerly winds pouring out of the steamy Midwest will transport that hot and humid air mass into Southern New England. This factor along with compressional heating (downsloping winds) will allow the mercury to soar into the mid to upper 90s throughout many cities of New England. You won’t escape the heat elsewhere as one can anticipate highs in the middle 90s from New York City to Washington, D.C.

June 26: (The Weather Channel)
Northeast
Northeast
Scattered showers and storms will pockmark the Northeast tomorrow as moisture from the Deep South slathers the region. The precipitation and attendant cloudiness will help ameliorate temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s), but the air mass will be tropically oppressive.

A broad upper low can be found hovering over the northern Gulf today and will creep northward over the next two to three days towards the Mid-Atlantic. Plus, as is the case in the Northeast, the Bermuda High will usher in a very tropical air mass originating from the Caribbean and the Gulf.

Forecast

June 22-23, 2005:

The potential for storms producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes etc. are shown over the Mississippi Valley area.

Results

June 22: (The Weather Channel)
A disturbance rolling across southern Canada above the ridge will set off thunderstorms that could dive southeastward into the northern parts of the Upper Midwest tonight. These storms could become strong to severe. The threat will extend across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. In addition, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible around the mid-Mississippi Valley.

June 23: (The Weather Channel)
The approaching cold front will set off showers and storms, some severe, from the eastern Dakotas through Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. The threat stretches along the I-29 corridor (between Grand Forks, N.D. and Sioux Falls, S.D.) and eastward into the Arrowhead of Minnesota. A few tornadoes are possible but the real threats are very large hail and damaging wind gusts on the order of 60 to 70 mph.


Forecast

June 22-23, 2005:

A warm and moist air mass is drawn up over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States creating unsettled conditions over the region.

Results

June 22: (The Weather Channel)
Showers and storms will once again threaten the already soggy Sunshine State. Tropical moisture will continue to funnel across the southern portion of the state. The weakening upper-level through may once again aid in developing a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon from the Carolinas to coastal Georgia.

Northeast
Showers and thunderstorms could dampen part of the day along the I-95 corridor as a cold front marches through the region. Severe storms are not expected and most will remain isolated to scattered.

June 23: (The Weather Channel)
South
It is the same old story across the South, more rain for South Florida and poor air quality for many. Isolated thunderstorms may also dampen part of the day across northern Florida, south Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. Meanwhile, hot and sunny weather will dominate from the Tennessee Valley to the Southern Plains. Highs will reach the 80s across the Southeast and well into the 90s from the Tennessee Valley to the Southern Plains.

Northeast
Picture perfect weather is in store across the Northeast as high pressure builds in behind Wednesday’s cold front. Comfortable humidity will accompany the sunshine. Highs will range from the 70s across New York state and New England to the 80s across the Mid-Atlantic. As the weekend nears, temperatures will climb into the 80s and 90s and the mugginess will return region-wide.

Forecast

June 20-22, 2005:

A storm system is indicated over the Northeast and New England at this time. This is most likely the continuation of the weather system referred to in the June 17-19 forecast.

Results
June 22: (The Weather Channel)

Northeast
Showers and thunderstorms could dampen part of the day along the I-95 corridor as a cold front marches through the region. Severe storms are not expected and most will remain isolated to scattered.



Weather map courtesy of The Weather Channel


Forecast

June 17-19, 2005:

A weather pattern bringing strong winds is indicated for the eastern US. This may take the form of a tropical storm or hurricane if formation took place in the Gulf or over the Florida Keys. In such a case, it could now make landfall along the Florida Panhandle or peninsula. If not an actual tropical system, then storms triggering tornadoes or other windy conditions are possible throughout the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

Results

June 18: (The Weather Channel)
South
Conditions will deteriorate by late Saturday across parts of Virginia and the Carolinas as low pressure develops aloft. Some thunderstorms could turn severe with hail and damaging wind gusts the priority threats. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop on Sunday across the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida. On Monday, the upper-level low will still be stuck over the Southeast resulting in more showers and thunderstorms over coastal North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

June 19: (National Weather Service)
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCUR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR MONDAY (June 20).


Forecast

June 18-20, 2005: More moisture and heat are indicated from southern Texas northward through the Plains. This could cause storms to erupt since ample Gulf moisture will most likely be available.

Results

June 18: (The Weather Channel)
Look for increasing temperatures across the Plains over the weekend and than spreading into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Monday and Tuesday. Look for 80s all the way through the Dakotas and by Sunday, 90s will find their way into parts of Kansas, Nebraska and western Missouri. A peak into the future shows this heat may be here to stay for much of the upcoming week and unfortunately humidity will be on the increase making for sweltering conditions.
Areas west of the Mississippi, especially Texas, will have to deal with summertime heat into next week.

June 19: (The Weather Channel)
Warmer temperatures and additional moisture will continue across much of the Midwest today. Sunny skies will be seen from Denver to Chicago as high pressure keeps skies clear...However, a few scattered thunderstorms will make their way through the Dakotas and into northern Minnesota today as a disturbance moves through the region.

The string of 90 degree days in Dallas will continue today with an afternoon high in the mid 90s. Houston and New Orleans will also see plenty of sunshine today with high temperatures reaching into the 90s.

June 20: (The Weather Channel)
Temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will soar to levels around 10 degrees above average for this time of the year. This translates into afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s for most. You will have to travel to the lakeshores of the Great Lakes to find temperatures in the 70s. Showers and storms may provide brief relief from the warm temperatures across areas form the U.P. of Michigan back through the Dakotas. A few storms may also become strong to severe. Elsewhere, sunshine will be widespread.

Forecast

June 14-16, 2005: Incoming moisture from the Gulf sets off thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley eastward across the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States.

Results

June 14, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
The greatest threat today for severe thunderstorms will extend from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes are possible, especially across Ohio.

June 16, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
Northeast
The heat and oppressive humidity buster has finally made a move through the whole Northeast region. Areas that dealt with yet another hazy, hot, and humid day on Wednesday (eastern Pa., N.J., Del., Md., and Va.) will finally get a sample taste of the cooler conditions that others in the region have already experienced earlier this week...With and upper low overhead (cooler air aloft), this will allow for the building of afternoon instability showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout the entire Northeast region.

Forecast

June 14-16, 2005: Certain weather models indicate storms along the length of the East Coast from Florida to Maine.

Results

No storms from Florida to Maine but a cold front.



Weather map courtesy of the Weather Channel

Forecast

June 14-16, 2005: Tropical Storm formation may be possible in the Gulf around 86 West longitude and 26 North latitude, as well as in the area between the Florida Keys and Cuba.

Results

June 14-16, 2005: No tropical storm formation near 86 West longitude and 26 North latitude.

June 15, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

Pulsing thunderstorms in the north-central Caribbean Sea continue to be monitored for signs of better organization...Although organization in the disturbance is minimal, heavy tropical downpours across Jamaica, extreme eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are expected to continue.


Forecast

June 13-15, 2005: Cold, dry air invades the Rockies with the strong possibility of triggering storms and/or windy conditions over the Front Range.

Results

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
348 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY. PATCHY AREAS OF FROST MAY
OCCUR...BUT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2005

STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST DOMINATED AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2005

ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT PUSHED DEEP INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SQUEEZED THROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED EAST CANYON WIND AREAS.



Forecast

June 13-15, 2005: Windy weather is likely through the West Coast States as well.

Results

June 15, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest will be cloudy and cool and this trend will last into the weekend with increasing amounts of rain (and strong coastal winds) by tomorrow (June 16) as a potent Pacific storm approaches.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
502 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2005

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HEADED TO
A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST BY THURSDAY. STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH IN THE VALLEYS
AND 100 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY (June 16) AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
345 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2005

...A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING (June 16) TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE HEADLANDS...


Forecast

June 12, 2005: Around this time the storms shown over the Front Range and Texas should arrive over the Mississippi Valley and continue eastward.


Results

June 12, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

Remnants of Arlene push northward


The National Hurricane Center issued the final advisory at 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday for Tropical Depression Arlene. Arlene came ashore around 4 p.m. EDT between Mobile and Pensacola as a Tropical Storm...Bands and areas of rain continue over parts of southern Indiana and Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, northeastern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.

Forecast

June 7-11, 2005:

Two areas slated for severe weather may actually indicate tropical storm or hurricane formation since June begins hurricane season. The first is the area around Brownsville, Texas and the other lies in the southeastern Gulf at around 86 West longitude and 24 North latitude.

Results

June 8, 2005 (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z WED JUN 08 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

June 10, 2005 (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...

(No tropical storm or hurricane formation reported near Brownsville, TX)

Forecast

June 7-11, 2005:
A major weather pattern develops over the Front Range and Texas. Tropical heat and moisture flow northward from the Gulf increasing temperatures and unleashing severe storms with tornado potential. Storms push eastward through the Mississippi Valley.

Results

June 8, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
Severe storms seem most likely over southwestern Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas.

June 10, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
The other trouble spot is in the southern Plains. Severe storms will once again pelt parts of Oklahoma and western Texas this weekend as disturbances continue to parade out of the West. Locally large hail, damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and torrential downpours will accompany any developing thunderstorms.
More strong storms will fire Saturday afternoon (June 11) in the same hard hit areas of the central Plains, namely Kansas and Nebraska, forming yet another complex of heavy rain-producing storms.


Forecast

June 4-7, 2005:
In the main, fair weather is indicated over the western States and the Rockies at this time. The exception seems to be the Pacific Northwest where the chance of some unsettled weather exists.

Results

June 5, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
An upper-level trough digging into the Northwest will keep things rather cool and unsettled today and Monday. High temperatures will hover in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees in both the Seattle and Portland areas.

Forecast

June 4-7, 2005:
The Mississippi Valley and East Central area should have fine weather, although the storms in the Plains may begin to move eastward.

Results

June 5, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
A strong upper-level system combining with plenty of low-level moisture erupted into a severe weather outbreak on Saturday. There were around 40 reports of tornadoes with numerous other reports of large hail and damaging winds. A cluster of strong storms even did damage in the Chicago metro area. The upper-air disturbance causing the severe weather will shift east today bringing the threat of severe storms to Wisconsin and Michigan southwestward into Missouri. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Forecast

May 31-June 3, 2005:
A windy storm breeding pattern is slated to affect the Rockies, Great Basin, and West Coast States. Besides erratic gusty winds, this pattern is usually accompanied by sharp dips in temperature and scattered severe thunderstorms.

Results

May 31, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
As one storm system exits the West, a new one will move in...Meanwhile, another system will move into the Pacific Northwest...Showers will become more widespread across the region heading into Wednesday, as a deep trough develops across the Northwest. Along with the showers, this storm will also bring in cooler weather as well.

(National Weather Service)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
...COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE...AND KITTITAS VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE WINDS WILL RAISE PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
LATER TODAY.


Courtesy of Accuweather


Forecast

May 31-June 3, 2005:
Meanwhile over the Texas and the Plains, warm moist air is drawn northward and will react with the colder, drier air over the Rockies. This combination should ignite severe storms over the Front Range, Texas, and the Plains. Tornado activity is a distinct possibility.

Results

May 31, 2005 (The Weather Channel)
A potent storm system brought severe weather to the High Plains Monday evening. Hail to the size of baseballs fell eastern New Mexico, with tornadoes being spotted in eastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado. This storm system will emerge into the Central Plains during the day on Tuesday, taking its severe thunderstorms with it. Showers and thunderstorms are dampening the region from western Nebraska into the Texas Panhandle this morning...Severe thunderstorms are possible across southeastern Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. While large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. As this system pushes eastward, residents of Kansas City, Tulsa, and Dallas will need to keep an eye out for thunderstorms late today and overnight.

June 5, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
A strong upper-level system combining with plenty of low-level moisture erupted into a severe weather outbreak on Saturday (June 4). There were around 40 reports of tornadoes with numerous other reports of large hail and damaging winds. A cluster of strong storms even did damage in the Chicago metro area.

Forecast

June 1-4, 2005:
The East Central States and Southeast will also see an invasion of colder air triggering storms throughout the region. Potentially dangerous atmospheric conditions are indicated over Florida, especially along the west coast. The storms over the East Central States work their way over New England.

Results

May 31, 2005 (The Weather Channel)
It will be yet another day of clouds, showers, and scattered thunderstorms across the Southeast today. The heaviest rain this morning will overspread the Florida Peninsula, where Tampa and Orlando could pick up over an inch of rain. Thunderstorms are also possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. Showers are more likely farther north across Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.



(Accuweather)
A slowly moving storm and a very humid flow of air from the tropics will continue to bring drenching downpours to Florida the next couple of days. Already, places like Tampa have had over 2 inches of rain and more is on the way. The conveyor belt of moisture could easily produce rainfall totals in excess of 4 inches in some areas by Friday.

Hurricane Outlook July 2005

These forecasts were compiled during May and June of 2005

Mainland Hurricane Outlook
July 2005

The weather patterns indicated in these forecasts may denote tropical storm or hurricane activity but not necessarily. The actual weather pattern experienced may be a severe weather pattern of a non-tropical or semi-tropical nature.

Forecast
July 9-11, 2005:
A storm system bringing whipping winds is shown for the Florida Peninsula. This may be due to a tropical system approaching from the south. Severe weather will also threaten the Mississippi Valley area and the Deep South around Mobile.

Results
July 10, 2005
Hurricane Dennis affects Florida



Photo courtesy of NOAA

Forecast
July 10-13, 2005:
The formation or passage of a tropical storm or hurricane may take place around 95 West Longitude and 28 North Latitude. This lies approximately 200 south of Galveston, Texas.

Results
July 10, 2005: (National Weather Service)
IN THE UPPERLEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTEREDNEAR 27N94W. THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE AND DRY TO SUPPORTANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION W OF 90W(In other words storm formation not likely)

July 11-13, 2005:
An influx of tropical moisture is indicated over the New England area. This usually results in warmer temperatures and substantial rains. Other models show the possibility of a storm system originating or passing over the Bahamas, hitting the Mid-Atlantic area, and continuing on through New England.

(No tropical moisture reported)

July 11, 2005: (The Weather Channel) NortheastA backdoor cold front will drop temperatures significantly on Tuesday across New England and to a lesser degree southward into New Jersey and Delaware. There may be a few scattered thundershowers with this front, as well.

Forecast
July 12-14, 2005:
Severe weather conditions will prevail over the Florida Panhandle—an all too familiar landing place for tropical storms and hurricanes. Stormy conditions, along with rising temperatures and humidity will also take aim on the East Coast States from the Carolinas northward through Pennsylvania.

Results
July 12, 2005: (The Weather Channel)South...locally heavy downpours possible in the Deep South.

July 13, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

South

Scattered showers and storms will roam the South once again tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and evening, as tropical moisture clings to the region.

July 14, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

South

...thunderstorms across the South right through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will occur where storms train (move over the same area). While no widespread severe threat exists, a few thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

July 15, 2005: (National Weather Service)...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA......SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA731 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTY AND EASTERN WATAUGA COUNTY

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN CHOWAN COUNTY...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST...TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN TODAY...RESULTING IN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

WARM HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL722 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MOVING THROUGH MYAKKA AND PEACE RIVER AREAS...

TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. SOUTHEASTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL601 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...STRONG STORM MOVING OUT OF WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...

Forecast
July 19-23, 2005:
A disruptive weather pattern is indicated over the New England area. This may be a tropical system. One possibility shows a storm system forming off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia and traveling northward to New England.

Results
July 21, 2005: (The Weather Channel)
NortheastHigh temperatures are not the biggest story as we head into the weekend....although New York, Philly and Washington, DC will see highs in the 90s on Friday. Look for a cold front to impact the Northeast as we head into Friday with the chance of scattered t-storms afflicting the region.

July 22, 2005: (Storm system forming off the coast of North Carolina and Virgina)
(The Weather Channel)
Over the next day or so, upper-level disturbances dipping southward from the Great Lakes to out over the Atlantic off the Carolina coast could nudge Franklin well out to sea.

(Tropical Storm Franklin formed on July 21st over the Bahamas and began to move northward on the 22nd although it didn't reach New England. By the 28th it was south of New England.)



Forecast
July 21-23, 2005:
Atmospheric conditions will deteriorate over the Central Mississippi Valley area. Severe weather conditions are indicated over Tennessee and surrounding area.

Results

July 21, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

Midwest

The heat continues to expand across the Midwest with St.Louis under an excessive heat warning into the weekend. High temperatures in the 100s will be common across the Central Plains with the Upper Midwest sitting comfortably in the 70s and 80s. The threat for scattered t-storms will exist across the northerh half of the Midwest into the weekend as a front will traverse across the northern tier of the U.S.

July 22, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

Midwest

High temperatures will eclipse 100 degrees on Saturday from Illinois, South Dakota and down to Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday. Highs in the 90s will surround this area of 100s. With plenty of humidity, afternoon heat indices could top 110 degrees in the mid-Mississippi Valley along the Missouri-Illinois line Saturday and Sunday. Numerous heat advisories and excessive heat warnings/watches will continue for parts of the Ohio Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains.

July 23, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

Afternoon heat indices in the lower Missouri, mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys may again top 115 degrees. This heat is potentially deadly and heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in effect.

Forecast
July 31-Aug 1, 2005:

This will more than likely be a stormy period for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States as conflicting atmospheric currents produce severe disturbances. The New England area will also be targeted by severe weather, which may be a tropical system.

Results

July 30, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

South

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again speckle much of the South tomorrow, mainly east of the Mississippi River, as a sticky subtropical air mass stands its ground.
NortheastThe generally pleasant weather gracing much of the Northeast north of the Mason-Dixon Line today will be replaced by the threat of a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.

July 31, 2005: (The Weather Channel)

South

More of the same for the South Monday: the Southeast will see scattered showers and thunderstorms...

Northeast

A weak disturbance aloft and a weak cold front dipping southward into New York and New England will set off a few showers and thunderstorms in the Northeast Monday...
August 1, 2005: (The Weather Channel)SouthNothing much will change across the Southeast on Tuesday as conditions will be warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms will dot the landscape...
NortheastTemperatures will feel more like the dog days of August over the next couple of days through the Northeast...

August 2, 2005: (National Weather Service)
The NWS reported that Tropical Depression 8 formed 565 miles southwest of Bermuda. (68.7 West/28.5N)


Atlantic

Forecast
July 9-13, 2005:
The broad area between 41-55 West Longitude and 15-18 North Latitude shows potential for tropical storm and/or hurricane development.The “hottest” longitudes appear to be 44, 51 and 55 West. Potential is also shown around 41 West/21 North, and around 45 West/8 North.

Results
July 10, 2005 (National Weather Service)

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THECENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

Forecast
July 10-13, 2005:
The central Atlantic around 35 West Longitude and 18 North Latitude shows potential for tropical storm and/or hurricane formation.

Results
July 11, 2005: (National Weather Service)CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

July 12, 2005: (NWS)CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 16N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE/CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

July 14, 2005: (National Weather Service)TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 21N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 17N FROM 37W-41W.

Forecast
July 14, 2005:
Look for Tropical Storm development off the west coast of Africa around 20 West Longitude and 10 North Latitude.

Results
July 14, 2005: (National Weather Service)TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W S OF 19N AT 0600 UTC BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 10N22W- 11N24W-10N26W.

Forecast
July 19-20, 2005:
Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane formation between 39-42 West Latitude and 20 North Longitude.

Results

July 19, 2005: (National Weather Service)

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS A SHARP INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N37.5W. THE WAVE IS BEING OVERTAKEN BY A SURGE OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND SUSPENDED DUST E OF 34W WHICH IS MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE AXIS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 34W-44W.

Forecast
July 22, 2005:
Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane formation around 23 West Longitude and 11 North Latitude and 43 West which seems to back July 19-20 indications.A cold front may develop off the East Coast of the U.S. running the length of coast.
Also check 48 West Longitude and 11 North Latitude for Tropical Storm development.

Results

July 23, 2005: (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 20W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N45W.

Forecast
July 31-Aug 2, 2005:
The following places show potential for Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane development:
51 West Longitude and 10 North Latitude
44 West Longitude and 10 North Latitude
29 West Longitude and 8 North Latitude (maybe 21 North too)
35 West Longitude and 19 North Latitude

Results

July 31, 2005: (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 17 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 9 0NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-36W.

August 2, 2005: (National Weather Service)FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.

Pacific

Potential for Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane formation is indicated for the follwing places around the dates indicated:

Forecast
July 5, 2005:
Around 154W/24N or North of Big Island, Hawaii.

Results
No tropical system reported.

Forecast
July 9-13, 2005:
145 through 149 West Longitude around 16 North Latitude.

Results
No tropical systems reported.

Forecast
July 10-13, 2005:
127 West Longitude and 7 North Latitude.

Results

July 10, 2005: (National Weather Service)TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W FROM 5N TO 15N AND IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE ITCZ.July 11, 2005: (NWS)TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 127W/128W FROM 7N TO 15N AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Forecast
July 13, 2005:
131 West Longitude and 21 North Latitude. This may be related to the July 10-13 forecast.

Results
July 12, 2005: (National Weather Service)TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 133W FROM 8N TO 15N AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

Forecast
July 22, 2005:
141 West Longitude and 11 North Latitude.
141 West Longitude and 38 North Latitude is highlighted for storm activity. This, however, is to far north to be tropical in nature.

Results

July 23, 2005: (National Weather Service)

A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE E PACIFIC WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 36N142W THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 33N148W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO BASE AT 20N154W.

Forecast
July 31-Aug 2, 2005:
129 West Longitude and 12 North Latitude
146 West Longitude

Results

ResultsJuly 31, 2005: (National Weather Service)

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W MOVE W 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.

August 2, 2005: (National Weather Service)

An area of cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms is about 880 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The thunderstorms continue to remain disorganized...(aprox. 145W/11N)

Caribbean

Forecast

July 10-11, 2005:
80 West Longitude and 13 North Latitude, which lies off coast of Nicaragua.

Results
July 10, 2005: (National Weather Service)CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLANDOVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO BETWEEN84W-93W.

July 11, 2005: (National Weather Service)THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING THE GENERATION OF CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS NUMEROUS MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 81W-87W ALONG HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

Forecast
July 23-26, 2005:
79 West Longitude and 20 North Latitude. This lies off the south central coast of Cuba.

Results

July 24, 2005: (National Weather Service)CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST SURGE...BUT THE CONCENTRATIONS APPEAR THINER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N FROM 76W-78.5W TO INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE COAST OF PANAMA.

Forecast
July 31, 2005:
74 West Longitude and 12 North Latitude, which lies off the northern coast of Colombia.

Results

July 30, 2005: (National Weather Service)

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SW ATLANTIC ALONG FROM 12N72W TO 23N68W MOVING WEST 15-20 KT...